客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（5 月 6 日）A 股迎来五月首个交易日，三大指数集体走强。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.13%， 收报 3316.11 点；深证成指涨 1.84%，收报 10082.34 点；创业板指涨 1.97%，收报 1986.41 点。沪深两市成交额 达到 13362 亿，较上个交易日放量 1668 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 6 日震荡趋强，收盘 3808.54，环比上涨 37.97。 【郑糖】因短线跌幅较大空头逢低了结支持美糖周一继续反弹。受美糖上升支持郑糖 2509 月合约周二震荡 走高，不过现货报价下调限制期价上升空间。郑糖 2509 月合约夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡。巴西国家商品供应公司 （Conab）表示，巴西 2025/26 年度甘蔗产量料为 6.634 亿吨，较上一年度下滑 2%；巴西 2025/26 年度甘蔗种植 面积预计较前一年度增长 0.3%，单产下降 2.3%。巴西 2025/26 年度糖产量料为创纪录的 4,590 万吨，较上一年 度增长 4%。 【胶】受股市上升提振资金作用沪胶周二震荡上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shengsheng Electronics, is facing challenges due to high initial manufacturing costs and is working to improve operational performance and market confidence while navigating uncertainties related to U.S. customer relations and tariffs [2][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shengsheng Electronics has commenced operations at its Hefei factory in 2025, which has led to depreciation expenses and higher initial manufacturing costs affecting performance [2]. - The company aims to enhance its operational performance and boost market confidence in its stock price [2]. - A portion of the company's revenue comes from U.S. clients, and it is currently negotiating solutions to address potential impacts from recent events [2]. Group 2: Impact of Policies - The company's operations at its Czech factory have not been affected by China's recent rare earth export restrictions [3]. - The U.S.-China tariff policies are expected to cause short-term disruptions in trade, but the company is actively discussing strategies with U.S. clients to mitigate potential impacts [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 636 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.33 million yuan, a decline of 53.27% [4]. - The company's gross profit margin stood at 20.62%, with a debt ratio of 49.05% [4]. - The company has implemented cost control measures that have improved operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Group 4: Market Ratings and Predictions - Over the past 90 days, four institutions have rated the stock as a buy, with an average target price of 38.76 yuan [6]. - Detailed earnings forecasts indicate projected net profits of 233 million yuan for 2025, increasing to 304 million yuan in 2026 and 359 million yuan in 2027 [8].

林荣雄策略：5 月科技第二波：初现端倪 20250506 摘要 • 五一期间全球股市普遍上涨，风险偏好上升，费城半导体指数和中国金融 指数均上涨，伦铜和布油也呈现上涨态势，但人民币汇率信号诡异，需进 一步评估。新台币升值或与东亚国家缓解与美贸易矛盾有关。 • 政治局会议后，中美关税博弈降温，美方释放谈判信号，市场预期关税谈 判旨在避免全球经济衰退，推动风险资产定价上升。尽管谈判过程漫长， 但双方愿意谈判对风险资产定价提供了重要窗口期。 • 国内二季度基本面存在环比走弱压力，4 月 PMI 和 EPMI 数据不理想，预 计经济环比走弱幅度不小。PMI 新出口订单分项降至 44.7%，超过 2018 年关税战最低水平，对国内基本面和政策形成压力，不认为有大级别上涨 行情。 • 大盘指数在黄金坑后突破 3,300 点，接近出坑，但只能做震荡式判断。二 次探底可能性较低，对应强预期弱现实状态。A 股高低切换指数接近区间 下沿，表明此前高位调整基本结束，新一轮主线正在酝酿，科技尤其是 AI 科技科创可能性较大。 Q&A 今年科技板块的走势如何？未来是否有回升的可能？ 今年整体对科技板块的节奏判断较为准确。从 2 月中旬 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Analysis - In April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies in China experienced a 9.1% year-on-year decline in sales, indicating ongoing market pressure [2][20] - From January to April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 1,018.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.8% [3][21] - The sales performance of the top 10 companies showed a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, while the sales of companies ranked 21-30 increased by 3.5% [3][21] Group 2: Key Companies in Real Estate - The five largest real estate companies by sales from January to April 2025 were Poly, China Resources, China Overseas, China Merchants, and Greentown, with sales amounts of 87.61 billion, 68.5 billion, 66.52 billion, 49.78 billion, and 47.72 billion yuan respectively [4][22] - The highest average sales prices per square meter were recorded by Binjiang, Yuexiu, Greentown, Jinyu, and Poly Real Estate, with prices of 39,800, 39,400, 34,100, 30,500, and 27,300 yuan respectively [4][22] - The companies with the highest year-on-year sales growth were China Railway, Huafa, Electric Construction, Yuexiu, and Tie Jian, with growth rates of 55.4%, 49.1%, 49.1%, 37.1%, and 22.7% respectively [4][22] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to policy implementation and long-term investments in leading companies with quality product resources and real estate operation capabilities [5][23] - Recommended companies include Poly Development, New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from market conditions [5][23] Group 4: Communication Industry Analysis - The report highlights the significant commercial success of Yiyuan Communication in the communication module sector, marking progress in China's communication module industry [9][25] - From 2015 to 2024, Yiyuan Communication's revenue grew from 303 million yuan to 18.594 billion yuan, with net profit increasing from 26 million yuan to 588 million yuan [9][25] - The company has expanded its workforce from under 200 to approximately 6,000 employees during the same period [9][25] Group 5: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global edge AI market is expected to grow explosively, with projections indicating a rise from 321.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,223 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.6% [13][29] - The integration of AI and IoT is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities and innovation potential, transitioning from a connected world to an intelligent world [13][29] - Yiyuan Communication is well-positioned to capitalize on the development opportunities in the edge AI market [13][30]

投资咨询中心 2025年05月06日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】Mysteel247家钢厂高炉开工率84.33%，环 比上周持平，同比去年增加3.73个百分点；日均铁水产量 245.42万吨，环比上周增加1.07万吨，同比去年增加14.75万 吨。评：基本面钢材产量和表需暂时都维持高位，库存去库较 好。前期钢价的波动基本跟随宏观市场情绪，中美加征关税的 预期反复干扰盘面。考虑高关税对出口需求的抑制，后期需求 大概率走弱。季节性看，目前低库存为钢价提供支撑，在预期 悲观情况下，低库存更多表现为基差走强。但如果需求预期转 好，低库存能给绝对价格提供向上弹性。建议短期螺纹钢逢高 做空。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布，授权商务部和美国贸 易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征 收100%的关税。他表示， ...

有记者提问，据报道，中方已同欧洲议会相互取消交往限制，可否证实？ 林剑表示，过去几年，中欧立法机构交往，因为众所周知的原因出现了一些波折。当前形势下，双方都认为中欧加强对话合作十分重要。 经双方商定，中方和欧洲议会决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制，我们相信并期待随着中欧全面恢复立法机构的交往，双方的交流和理解将更加深入，这将为中 欧关系持续健康稳定发展注入新动力。 法新社记者提问，美国总统特朗普在近期的采访中称，他不会为了和中国举行谈判而取消对华的关税。请问，目前双方在进行谈判的意愿上有多接近？ 林剑回应，这场关税战是美方挑起的，中方的态度是一贯的，也是明确的——打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 5月6日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 林剑强调，美方近期不断表示，希望同中方进行谈判。关税战、贸易战没有赢家。如果美方真想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁、施压，在平等、尊重、 互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 综合自央 ...

本文来自微信公众号：巨潮WAVE （ID：WAVE-BIZ），编辑：杨旭然，作者：谢泽锋，题图来自：视觉中国 关税大战氛围笼罩下，全球市值最大，亦是最赚钱公司之一的苹果，继续着它的"脱钩之路"。 全球贸易格局中，由于产业禀赋不同，以贸易顺差逆差排名，中国是最大的商品输出国，而美国则是最大的买入国。这也就是很多人将美国定义为"中国 最大甲方"的根据。 但对于以苹果为代表的美国国际型公司来说，除本土市场之外，中国无疑是其最大甲方。仅在中国市场，去年苹果就豪取了646亿美元收入，接近1个中国 电信，相当于3个贵州茅台或6个长江电力（三峡+葛洲坝）。 这样的体量，应该是所有外资企业在中国收入规模最大，甚至可能不用加"之一"。大量中国的中产阶层迷恋于苹果产品，甘愿为其付出超高的毛利率并保 持极高粘性。 然而面对最大的甲方，苹果却并不像一个真正的乙方：稍有风吹草动，苹果便秉持利益最大化的原则，裹挟各家企业下南洋，驻印度，引导中国企业利益 与本土社会价值进行剥离。 对于中国供应商，苹果长期采取"养狼"策略，一边压榨现有供应商利润，将绝大部分利润留在自家后花园；一边扶持培养二供三供，防止主供做大威胁到 自己的利益。 靠中国供 ...

截至2025年5月6日 10:27，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.51元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月30日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.33%，成交4435.83万元。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交17.48亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达133.53亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.27亿份，创近1月新高。 消息面上，4月制造业PMI降至49.0%，为2021年以来四月份的第二低。4月制造业PMI容易季节性回落，今年4月制造业PMI环比降幅明显好于2022年4月及 2020年2月，反映美国高关税对中国经济的影响程度可能明显好于疫情。 机构认为，未来债市需要关注中美关税谈判的进展。倘若未来半年中美达成协议将关税降至年初水平，年内10Y国债收益率高点仍可能到1.9%，2025年经济 仍有望企稳。由于关税谈判艰难，短期或难谈成，我们预计债市二季度震荡。 浙商证券认为近期债市调整仍将持续，但鉴于基本面无明确利空，货币宽松基调不变，建议按利率底部区间震荡思路交易。 流动性方面，国债ETF ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。3月份我国棉花 进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14183，基差1433（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to enter a recovery phase after the holiday, with a positive outlook for the consumer sector due to strong consumption data during the holiday period [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index showed relative weakness in the last three trading days before the holiday, while the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext indices demonstrated resilience, particularly with a mild increase in the Shenzhen index on the last trading day [1]. - Despite some panic selling in individual stocks following earnings disclosures, the overall market performance aligned with expectations [1]. Consumer Sector Insights - Strong consumption data during the holiday, including record highs in tourism-related metrics, indicates that consumers remain willing to spend, which is favorable for the consumer sector [2]. - Investors are advised to differentiate between long-term overhyped sectors and individual stocks to avoid chasing high prices [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged not to overly worry about the current market conditions but to focus on individual stock performance, as a broad market rally is unlikely to be sustained [2]. - It is recommended to observe the market on the first trading day after the holiday and wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions [2]. Risk Awareness - There is a growing concern regarding delisting risks, with approximately 60 stocks facing such risks this year, surpassing the total from the previous year [1]. - Investors should avoid stocks with poor performance or delisting risks, particularly those categorized as "black five categories" [1].