金属期权 2025-04-30 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属上方空头压力下的盘整震荡，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系波动 较大，适合构建卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属延续偏强走势创历史新高大幅回落后大幅波动，构建牛市价差组 合策略、做空波动率策略和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2506 | 77,740 | 150 | 0 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 2 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 2.1 基差：数据 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 763.0 | 760.5 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 52.5 | 51.5 | 1.0 | | I09 | 710.5 | 709.0 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 684.0 | 683.0 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | -79.0 | -77.5 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 ...

| | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | 2025年4月29日 | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 最新值 | 价差 品种 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | -51.02 | F期现价差 | -3.23 | 5.30% | 4.70% | | -23.23 | H期现价差 期现价差 | -2.42 | 9.40% | 5.40% | | -127.30 | IC期现价差 | 1.29 | 2.80% | 1.10% | | -148.06 | IM期现价差 | 4.85 | 85.00% | 4.00% | | -31.60 | 次月-当月 | 4.00 | 3.20% | 10.90% | | -90.00 | 李月-崇月 | 3.20 | 1.20% | 8.60% | | -114.80 | 元月-当月 | 1.60 | 1.20% | 14.40% | | -58.40 | F跨期价差 李月-次月 | -0.80 | ...

| 89.30% | 280 | 硅铁 (SF506) | 5928 | 5648 | 5.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5950 | 2.50% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 146 | 49.30% | 5804 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 111 | 3.50% | 3240 | 53.60% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3129 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 43 | 37.60% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3280 | 3237 | 1.30% | | | | | | 87 | 798 | 63.20% | 711 | 12.30% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 1531 | 1562 | -2.00% ...

事件 荣盛石化于2025 年4 月24 日发布公司2024 年度报告，公司2024 年实现营业收入3264.75 亿元，同比增 加0.42%；实现归母净利润7.24 亿元，同比减少37.44%。 其中，公司2024Q4 实现营业收入812.79 亿元，同比减少5.56%，环比减少3.18%；实现归母净利润-1.52 亿元，同比减少114.49%，环比减少912.03%。 烯烃需求仍在磨底拖累浙石化业绩 2024 年全年成品油表观消费量为3.87 亿吨，同比增加1.41%，2024 年全年柴油/汽油/航煤裂解价差均值 分别为959 元/1335 元/1451 元/吨，分别同比减少26.73%/12.84%/24.69%。与此同时，2024 年全年PX-原 油价差均值为2819 元/吨，同比下降12.00%，公司现有4000 万吨/年原油加工能力和以及1040 万吨/年PX 产能，炼油产品价差收窄，产品盈利能力有所下滑。如果油品消费需求改善，公司盈利或将有所修复。 大体量高附加值产品陆续投产或帮助公司实现业绩修复 2公司浙石化年产140 万吨乙烯及下游化工品项目、高性能树脂项目、高端新材料项目、金塘新材料等 项目 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that on April 29, 2025, the domestic gold price in Shanghai was 787.13 CNY per gram, which is 8.27 CNY higher than the international gold price of 778.86 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that the domestic gold price is greater than the international gold price [3] - It also notes that there are instances where the domestic gold price is lower than the international gold price [3]

观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格小幅下降， 淘鸡日龄小幅下降，大小码价差基本持平，鸡苗价 | | | | 格高位持续回落。 | | | 供应 | 今年蛋价跌破饲料成本的时间有限，所以养殖端大多选择延养或换羽。换羽鸡一般需30天左 | 偏空 | | | 右才开产，叠加五一旺季预期从而引发清明后鸡蛋供应偏紧。但五一之后，随着换羽鸡陆续 | | | | 开产，同时南方将逐渐进入梅雨季，或将面临供强需弱格局。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅下降，流通库存和生产环节库存大幅上升。 | | | 需求 | 近期销区市场库存压力上升，蛋商拿货主要以刚需为主，产区走货偏慢，但节日效应仍存短 | 中性 | | | 期支撑。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低，低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润处于盈亏平衡附近，若出现持续亏损，养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本周鸡蛋基差小幅走低，期货近月合约仍处于小幅贴水状态。 | | | 价量 | 目前鸡蛋期货近远期价差处于中等水平。 ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/28 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13540 | -120 | -0.9% | | | | LH2509 | 14150 | -315 | -2.2% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13795 | -215 | -1.5% | | | 现货数据 | | 最新 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 商品猪出栏价 | 全国（元/kg） | 14.87 | -0.03 3 | -0.2% | | | | 河南（元/kg） | 15.07 | -0.06 | -0.4% | 交割基准地 | | 出栏均重 | 样本企业（kg） | 124.04 | 0.03 | 0.0% | | | 价差 | | 变化 | 基差 | 基差值 | 变化 | | 09-07价差 | 610 | -195 | 7月 | 1530 | 60 | | 11-09价差 | -355 | 100 | 9月 | 920 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rapeseed oil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market is sufficient, but the supply in the far - month is pessimistic due to factors such as low arrivals of Canadian rapeseed, low old - crop stocks of Russian rapeseed, difficulty in large - scale procurement of Australian rapeseed in the short term, inability to import Canadian rapeseed oil, and reserve rotation in the second half of the year. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is extremely scarce at present but is expected to improve significantly after May [3]. - The total demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Household consumption is relatively rigid, but catering consumption is poor. Rapeseed oil has a substitution phenomenon in blended oil due to its poor cost - performance. Future demand for rapeseed oil is difficult to increase significantly, with limited increments concentrated in seasonings and hot - pot bases [3]. - The market is generally optimistic about the basis of 09 rapeseed oil. The main logic is that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts far - month rapeseed procurement, and the amount of rapeseed oil that can be supplied to China before the harvest of Russian new crops is limited. The unilateral trend of the futures price depends on market sentiment and policies, and rapeseed oil is preferably used as a long position in oil arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - After China launched an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in September 2024 and imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in March 2025, the market's attention to rapeseed oil has increased. The uncertain result of the anti - dumping investigation restricts enterprises' willingness to purchase far - month rapeseed, and future rapeseed arrivals will decline significantly. To understand the downstream consumption, the views and procurement of oil mills and traders on far - month rapeseed oil, and the international supply of rapeseed oil, the research team visited the Sichuan - Chongqing region [11]. 3.2 Research Summary - **Supply**: The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is sufficient, but the far - month arrivals of Canadian rapeseed will decrease. Russian rapeseed stocks are low, and the monthly import volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China may drop to 50,000 - 60,000 tons in the next few months. Dubai's supply is stable with little increment, and Australian rapeseed is difficult to make up for the gap. In addition, the Sichuan - Chongqing region needs to rotate in rapeseed oil reserves in the second half of the year [16]. - **Demand**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Catering demand is poor due to the high cost - performance of soybean oil, while household demand is rigid. The demand is mainly stock - based, with limited increments in seasonings and hot - pot bases. The market expects rapeseed oil to start destocking in June. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce but is expected to improve after May [17]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market is optimistic about the basis of domestic 09 rapeseed oil due to supply concerns. The price trend of rapeseed oil depends on the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The market's acceptance of rapeseed oil prices is increasing, and demand is not completely suppressed by price. After September, the supply may improve, but import policies are still crucial. The price of soybean oil is expected to decline slightly after May. Strategies such as widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and soybean oil and palm oil can be considered [19]. 3.4 Research Content - **April 22, morning, Trader A in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 230,000 tons, and destocking is expected to start in June - July. The company mainly purchases from the East, South, and Hainan regions. It currently buys Dubai rapeseed oil at 6,000 tons per month. The far - month rapeseed purchase is restricted, and the company is optimistic about the price of rapeseed oil [20][21][23]. - **April 22, morning, Trader B in Chengdu**: The company's annual trade volume of oil and meal is about 300,000 tons. It is optimistic about the improvement of the soybean meal market after May Day. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 265,000 tons, and the company mainly purchases from Guangxi [26][27][30]. - **April 22, afternoon, Trader C in Chengdu**: The company's annual feed output is nearly 800,000 tons. The supply of rapeseed meal is poor, and the company has adjusted the formula. The company believes that rapeseed meal may have a correction opportunity. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is under pressure in March - May, and destocking is expected to start in June. The import of Russian rapeseed oil may be 40,000 - 60,000 tons per month from April to August [32][33][38]. - **April 23, morning, Trader D in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 700,000 tons per year and is decreasing. The company is optimistic about the 9 - month basis of rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region and believes that the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will face pressure after rising to 1,700 - 2,200 yuan [37][40][43]. - **April 23, afternoon, Oil Mill E in Chengdu**: The company mainly processes domestic rapeseed and corn germ. The output of domestic rapeseed has increased this year, but the quality is average. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 100,000 tons, and the demand is generally declining [44][45][46]. - **April 24, morning, Oil Mill F in Deyang**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 500,000 tons. The company believes that the supply of far - month rapeseed oil is scarce and is gradually purchasing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the 09 basis [47][48][50]. - **April 25, morning, Oil Mill G in Chongqing**: The company mainly refines and packages rapeseed oil. The annual trade volume is about 150,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 700,000 - 800,000 tons per year. The company's Chongqing rapeseed oil inventory is about several thousand tons, and destocking may start in June [51][53][54]. - **April 25, afternoon, Oil Mill H in Chongqing**: The company's planned annual trade volume of oil this year is 300,000 tons. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce, and the company is preparing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the future supply of soybean oil and the basis of rapeseed oil if the anti - dumping investigation continues [56][57][59].

2025年4月28日 [Table_Title] 美国持续释放关税缓和信号，股指整体反弹 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3786.99 点，较前值上升 0.39%；累计成交 10914 亿元，日均成交 2183 亿元，较前值下降 147 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17916 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是综合金融(6.07%)、汽车(4.94%)、 通信(3.16%)、电力设备及新能源(3.07%)、综合(2.77%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是交通运输(-0.88%)、煤炭(-1.21%)、农林牧渔(-1.38%)、食品饮料(- 2.40%)、消费者服务(-3.70%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-12.19 点、-3.81 点、 -44.98 点、-54.50 点。前一周同期值分别为-6.82 点、-3.10 点、-5.81 点、 6.24 点。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-35.60 点 ...