点击上图▲立即收听 "' 活着 ' 本身，就已是一件需要敬畏的事。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 你可能不认识今天的我，但你一定很熟悉 20年前的我。 那时的我们，就像今天的抖音、快手一样 —— 专卖店遍布街头巷尾，广告挤满了电视和报纸；周杰伦、谢霆锋、 S.H.E、TWINS 这些当红明星 都为我们代言，被年轻人争相视为潮流风向标。有了我，仿佛 "狂拽酷炫"，在街角和校园里走路带风。 然而时光流转，曾经的青春符号渐渐淡出了大众视野 ——从商场撤柜，在电视广告里绝迹，连消失和被遗忘似乎蒸发一样，悄无声息。 直到近几年，你在社媒上猝不及防刷到了熟悉的名字与 Logo，"爷青回"的怀旧情愫，瞬间触电般涌上心头，而紧随其后的发现更让人震惊： "什么？！居然还在？而且… … 还卖得风生水起，翻红了？！ " 底蕴犹在，再度回归 这些年， "老面孔们"着实交出了不少斐然的新战绩： 达芙妮长期占据抖音女鞋热门品牌月销榜首；美特斯邦威在" 618""双11"等大促中持续实现翻倍增长；真维斯的线上销售额从4.6亿一路飙升至60 亿；骆驼冲锋衣登顶天猫、抖音户外品类第一。 班尼路、百丽、回力等等，虽整体仍处于转型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current market performance of the non-ferrous steel sector is driven by political policy risk premiums rather than fundamental earnings or growth adjustments [8][14] - There is a significant concern regarding the supply chain security in the context of long-term US-China competition, particularly with strategic metals like copper [15] - The imposition of high tariffs on copper is seen as a market manifestation of political policy risk premiums, influencing inventory behaviors [16] - Non-market strategies, such as US government investments in rare earths, highlight the strategic importance of these materials beyond mere economic considerations [17] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry Overview - The report discusses the political policy risk premium affecting the non-ferrous steel sector, suggesting that current valuations may exceed fundamental support [8][14] - It emphasizes the need to consider long-term supply chain and national defense requirements when evaluating market premiums [14] Steel Industry Dynamics - Steel demand and production have both decreased, with a slight week-on-week decline in rebar consumption by 1.50% and a year-on-year drop of 5.85% [18][23] - Total steel inventory is expected to decline further, with social inventory down by 0.23% and year-on-year down by 29.02% [25] - The report anticipates a rebound in steel prices due to industry restructuring and reduced competition, with the overall steel price index rising by 1.14% [38][39] New Energy Metals - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 31.37% year-on-year, indicating strong supply growth [43] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of electric vehicles increasing significantly [47] - Lithium and cobalt prices are on the rise, while nickel prices have shown a downward trend [52][53]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 俄美关系缓和再起波折？ ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：美国对多国宣布 8 月 1 日起加征关税；特朗普宣布将通过北约援 乌；欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩讲话。 未来一周：美国贸易谈判持续；特朗普将对俄罗斯发表"重大声明"；中东局 势。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）美国关税：特朗普表示将对多国加征关税；将对进口铜征收 50%关税， 威胁对药品征收高额关税；"对等关税"实施时间推迟到 8 月 1 日。美 国的要求或不仅仅是下调关税，更重要的是要加强美国供应链免受第三 国干扰。短期而言，针对行业的新增高额关税或更多是刺激各国加快贸 易谈判的工具，但其长期风险持续存在，且影响或更为持久。 2）特朗普表示已批准向乌克兰运送更多防御性武器，并考虑进一步对俄罗 斯实施制裁。6 月以来，特朗普在一系列"成功"后，其对悬而未决的 问题态度转向强硬，包括关税和俄乌冲突。在俄罗斯不接受停火的情况 下，特朗普认为需要给俄罗斯施加更大压力以促成和谈；若进一步对俄 制裁 ...

新华财经北京7月13日电（记者 董道勇）近日，以"数绿融合，'双化'协同，推动我国机械工业高质量发展"为主题的第4届中国机械工 业创新发展论坛暨2025年鉴工作会在江苏苏州举行。会上，多位业内人士表示，在我国推进新型工业化、加快发展新质生产力、实 现"双碳"目标等重大战略部署的关键阶段，数字化绿色化的深度融合，将重塑机械工业的价值链和创新链。 专题报告环节，国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会智能制造专家委员会委员谢兵兵认为，当前，我国智能制造水平呈现应用领先、供 给先进、支撑有力的特征。他表示，系统深入推进智能制造发展，要打造智能制造升级版，梯度培育智能工厂是主要"抓手"。 图为第4届中国机械工业创新发展论坛暨2025年鉴工作会现场 国家工业信息安全发展研究中心专家郭英坤表示，中小企业数字化转型已形成国家、省、市、园区"一盘棋"统筹、"一股绳"发力新格 局。目前，推动中小企业数字化转型正从试点示范走向规模化推广，从单一的技术改造走向更加注重系统集成。从易到难、由点到 面、长期迭代、多方协同，是中小企业数字化转型的工作思路。 全国物流标准化技术委员会专家、江苏飞力达国际物流股份有限公司高级副总裁王佩方表示，制造供应 ...

在单边主义抬头的国际经贸大环境下，链博会以开放共融的姿态，搭建起了连接全球产业链供应链的友 谊之桥。 链博会作为中国联通世界的供应链旗舰展会，其构建出产业风向标与经贸资源精准对接的国际国内双循 环的关键节点。链博会借助搭建要素融通平台、创新制度型开放工具，实现国内产业升级与国际市场拓 展的协同发展。依托促成高效供需匹配，成为我国稳外贸的有力抓手。通过打通内外两个市场、充分利 用国内外两种资源，优化了国内产业布局、增加了国际经贸合作伙伴。链博会作为加快"双循环"新格局 的中坚力量，既巩固了国内大循环的主体地位，又提升了中国在全球产业链供应链中的影响力。 作为世界第二大经济体，我国正逐渐强化规则引领者角色，既运用数字贸易新基建消解有形贸易壁垒， 又凭借区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）等机制性安排对冲脱钩断链风险，在维护WTO多边贸易体 系核心地位的同时，积极推动建立更具包容性的国际经贸新秩序。链博会利用我国强大的产业链供应链 基础，推动智能制造、绿色能源等高端产业展示，引导企业向高附加值领域转型，带动国内相关企业技 术迭代，以应对国际市场激烈的竞争环境。在美国单边巨额关税壁垒的背景下，为优化区域经济协同， 链 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 13 日 2025 年 H1：归母净利润预计 12.53-13.73 亿元，同比增速 预计 5%-15%；扣非归母净利润预计 12.67-13.88 亿元，同 比增速预计 5%-15%。 根据折算，对应 2025 年 Q2：收入：预计同比持平。归母净 利润：预计 7.92-9.12 亿元，同比增速预计 1.6%-16.9%， 对应中枢值为 8.52 亿元，同比增速预计 9.2%； Q2 收入预计持平，利润预计有所增长。由于关税政策冲击 导致 Q2 实际有 40 天左右，公司各个生产基地的产能均受 到了不同程度的负面影响，订单交付和收入受到较大影响。 利润端，依靠跨境电商销售和新产品特别是电动工具产品销 售的增加有效提升了毛利率水平，预计归母净利润将有所增 长。产能方面，越南和美国已经达成了 20%关税的有效协 议，税率低于去年公司产品从中国出口至美国的 25%关税。 公司越南一期二期生产基地已于去年底前投入使用，体量更 大的越南三期生产基地已于近期投入使用，越南四期生产基 地目前已开工建设。 巨星科技取得来自某国际大型零售业公司的电 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $69.8/$67.9 per barrel, up $1.6/$1.6 from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 731/707/24/46 thousand barrels [2]. - US crude oil production was 13.39 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 50 thousand barrels per day. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 176, a week - on - week increase of 4 [2]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.01 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 100 thousand barrels per day; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2]. - US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.01/2.76/3.26 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 910 thousand/+450 thousand/ - 1.36 million barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $91/$102/$90 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/+$2.1/ - $4.1. The price spreads with crude oil were $21/$32/$20 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$1.2/+$0.4/ - $5.8 [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.0/0.4 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 266/83/91 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 130 thousand/1.04 million/910 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 40 thousand/+260 thousand/+300 thousand barrels per day. US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 40 thousand/1.59 million/1.54 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 80 thousand/+230 thousand/+310 thousand barrels per day. US aviation kerosene imports, exports, and net exports were 80 thousand/250 thousand/170 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +10 thousand/+80 thousand/+70 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the rise and fall of various sub - industries and the trend of the sector and the CSI 300 index, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [11][18] 2.2 Sector Listed Company Performance - The table shows the rise and fall of major upstream companies in the sector, including companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp., with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [22][23] - The valuation table of listed companies shows the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp. from 2024A to 2027E, with data sources from Wind and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oil, etc., as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [26][29] 3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Studies the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the rise and fall of Brent oil, and the inventory of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [44][45] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of US crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][58] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [61][63] 3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volume, as well as the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [66][68] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, as well as the domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale - retail price spreads, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [73][76] 4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Analyzes the inventory of US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and Singapore gasoline and diesel, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [99][100] 4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [115][116] 4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption and the number of US passenger airport security checks, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [117][118] 4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene import, export, and net export volume, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [126][127] 5. Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [139][141]

美国加速推进新一轮贸易壁垒，给弱势经济体带来沉重打击。非洲的莱索托，正面临严重经济困境，特别是纺织业受到了重大冲 击。美国关税重压超出了贸易范畴，已经上升到了国家紧急情况。莱索托的经济平衡岌岌可危，成千上万的就业机会受到威胁，如今 失业率已超过30%。估计这一状态将持续两年。非洲其他国家也开始寻求新出路，减少对美国的依赖。 卡塔尔半岛电视台：经济豪赌引发质疑 特朗普打着"美国重建铜业霸主地位"的旗号，宣布自8月起对进口铜征收50%关税。白宫辩称此举旨在纠正不公平贸易行为，推 动美国关键产业自主化，确保电网、军事装备等所需的重要原材料安全。该税率远超预期，引发全球供应链危机和威胁美国本土生产 体系的质疑。专家指出，制造业将首当其冲，成本压力沿产业链持续传导，消费端通胀风险加剧。 央视网消息：美国向多国发出关税信函，加剧市场不确定性。以威胁谋求让步的方式给全球贸易带来哪些冲击？各国如何捍卫底 线？来看相关报道。 美国《纽约时报》：关税已成施压工具 美国总统把关税看作"可以轻松部署的工具"，重新平衡美国经济的同时，"为美国带来大量资金"，并"迅速重置贸易关系"。美国 试图全程掌握节奏，让谈判对手措手不及，甚至将其逼 ...

最近，美国被曝通过泰国和墨西哥转运中国稀土，尤其是氧化锑的数量惊人，超过了3800吨。一听这个数字，就让人觉得事情不简单。去年年底，中国就对 这些关键矿产设了出口限制，谁知美国的企业动作不慢，立马寻找了第三国作为中转站，积攒了一大批库存。然而，中方反应迅速，马上补上了这个漏洞， 直接让美国企业措手不及。 根据数据显示，从2024年12月到2025年4月，美国从泰国和墨西哥进口的氧化锑量达到了3834吨，超过了2022到2024年这两年间的总和，还多出一倍。泰国 和墨西哥一下子成了稀土新供应商，但令人疑惑的是，这两个国家的锑产能其实非常有限。泰国只有一座冶炼厂，而墨西哥的新冶炼厂也直到2025年4月才 开始生产，显然无法支撑如此巨量的出口。所以，业内专家一眼就看出，这些货物显然是通过转运从中国流入美国的。 美国企业采用这种方式并非第一次，他们惯常通过第三国绕过出口管制，确保供应链不断裂。比如，Gallant Metals这家公司就通过这种手段进口镓。该公司 CEO Levi Parker曾在接受采访时直言，他们每个月从中国进口200公斤镓，先将这些镓运送到东南亚国家，标上铁或锌的标签当作普通金属出口，之后再转 ...

一场没有硝烟的战争：中美矿产争夺战的2025年 2025年7月10日，观察者网、环球网等媒体密集报道了一场正在激烈进行的中美矿产争夺战，这场战争并非简单的贸易摩擦，而是涉及法律、技术、外交、 情报等多领域的复杂博弈。数据和案例清晰地展现出，双方都在加码，寸步不让。这场争夺战的核心是镓、锗、锑等关键矿产，这些矿产对美国军工和高科 技产业至关重要，而中国掌握着全球大部分的精炼产能。 一条由跨国"搬运工"构成的灰色产业链迅速形成。他们在中国采购矿产，通过伪装成普通矿石、化肥甚至艺术品等方式，将货物运往泰国和墨西哥等第三 国，再经过重新包装和贴标，伪装成"本地制造"，最终流入美国市场。每吨矿产的转运佣金高达五万美元，高额利润吸引了无数人铤而走险。广西一家锑业 公司在泰国的子公司，就曾被曝出在2025年上半年向美国运送了3300吨锑产品。 面对如此猖獗的灰色贸易，中国迅速做出反应。商务部、公安部、国安部等部门联手展开调查，并升级监管措施，例如推出新版《矿产资源法》，在口岸部 署AI和穿透性检测系统等。然而，灰色链条不断翻新花样，监管始终难以完全堵死。据统计，在短短半年内，就有超过3800吨氧化锑通过第三国流向美 国。 ...