国债期货日报 | 2025-06-25 政策预期博弈下，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。6月20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Opinions on the Innovative Development of Manufacturing Measurement" to enhance measurement capabilities in the manufacturing sector, aiming for precision measurement and innovation by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks and Goals - The "Opinions" outline 14 key tasks to improve the measurement capability system in manufacturing, ensuring products are accurately measured and supporting technological innovation [1]. - By 2027, the goals include achieving significant progress in measurement development, with over 100 key calibration technologies, revising over 300 industry calibration standards, and developing more than 100 sets of measuring instruments [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Shortcomings - Despite advancements, challenges remain such as insufficient effective supply of measurement, inadequate application empowerment, and a lack of professional talent, which hinder the modernization of the industrial chain [2]. - Key common measurement technologies in emerging fields like artificial intelligence and new energy require further breakthroughs, and the development of high-end measuring instruments is relatively weak [2]. Group 3: Innovative Approaches - To address the supply issues, the "Opinions" propose innovative methods such as "ranking and competition" in emerging fields to enhance measurement traceability and transmission [3]. - The emphasis is placed on integrating advanced technologies like AI, big data, and cloud computing into manufacturing measurement, along with establishing a measurement database [3]. Group 4: Service Model and Infrastructure - The "Opinions" highlight the need for innovative measurement service models, strengthening calibration services, and building a robust measurement service system [3]. - Key tasks include supporting measurement institutions to provide "one-stop" services and ensuring compliance with calibration standards throughout the product lifecycle [3]. Group 5: Future Directions - Future efforts should focus on policy coordination, increased funding for measurement research, and fostering collaboration between enterprises, universities, and measurement institutions [4]. - Measurement institutions are encouraged to enhance service capabilities and adopt an "Internet + Measurement" model to improve efficiency [4].

Core Insights - Guangdong has formed nine trillion-level industrial clusters, with eight advanced manufacturing clusters selected for national recognition, highlighting the province's strong manufacturing capabilities [1] - The manufacturing sector in Guangdong accounts for approximately one-eighth of the national total, with industrial added value increasing by 3.5% year-on-year from January to May 2024 [1] Company Overview - Visionox Technology Co., Ltd. (视源股份) has evolved from a small startup to a leading global player in the display technology sector, achieving national-level manufacturing championships in three key product areas: LCD display main control boards, interactive smart panels, and smart conference panels [1][2] - The company has maintained its position among China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises for eight consecutive years [1] Market Position - In 2024, Visionox's LCD display main control board held a 23.8% market share globally, while its Seewo interactive smart panel captured 17.5% of the global education market [2] - The MAXHUB smart conference panel ranked first in mainland China with a 25% market share and second globally with a 9.9% market share [2] Competitive Advantage - The commercial atmosphere in Guangzhou and the responsive manufacturing ecosystem have been crucial to Visionox's success [3] - The company actively collaborates with upstream and downstream enterprises and research institutions to tackle core technologies, leveraging the synergy of its manufacturing network [3] Innovation Strategy - Visionox focuses on technological and product innovation across software, hardware, and market dimensions to maintain its competitive edge [4] - The company has invested over 8.5 billion yuan in research and development, with 57.5% of its workforce dedicated to technical roles [4] - Visionox has established a comprehensive R&D system comprising a central research institute, central engineering institute, innovation design institute, and postdoctoral research station [4] Global Expansion - Visionox is accelerating its global market presence, having established six overseas subsidiaries in countries including India, the USA, and the Netherlands, and serving over 140 countries and regions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is reported at -7, which is better than the expected -10 but worse than the previous value of -9 [1] Group 1 - The current index indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity, as values below zero signify a decline [1] - The index's improvement from the expected value suggests a less severe downturn than anticipated [1] - The previous month's index was slightly worse at -9, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is reported at -7, indicating a slight improvement from the previous value of -9 [1] Group 1 - The current index value of -7 suggests a contraction in manufacturing activity, although it is less negative than the prior month's reading [1] - The change from -9 to -7 reflects a marginal improvement in the manufacturing sector's performance [1]

美国6月里奇蒙德联储制造业装船指数 -3，前值-10。 ...

张国清在山西调研时强调 扎实推进制造业高质量发展 持续筑牢安全生产基层基础 金十数据6月24日讯，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理张国清22日至24日在山西调研制造业高质量 发展和安全生产等工作。他强调，加快构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。要引导制造业向高 端化转型，用好技术改造升级和大规模设备更新政策，发挥标准引领作用，加快先进设备应用、工艺流 程优化和高端产品供给。要深入实施制造业数字化转型行动和智能制造工程，加强行业垂直大模型研发 应用，以数智技术改造提升传统产业。要推动制造业绿色化发展，培育壮大绿色低碳产业，加强煤炭清 洁高效利用，持续推进煤制油气、精细化工和新材料等产业高质量发展，构建绿色制造和服务体系。 （新华社） ...

金十数据6月24日讯，英国工业联合会周二表示，英国制造业本月订单萎缩幅度为1月以来最大，销售价 格预期降温。英国6月CBI工业订单差值从5月份的-30降至-33。而过去3个月的产出指标有所改善，但仍 处于收缩区间。英国工业联合会首席经济学家Ben Jones表示："英国制造业正面临巨大压力，要应对能 源成本高企、劳动力成本上升、普遍存在的技能短缺，以及动荡的全球经济环境。"英国工业联合会还 表示，制造商对价格上涨的净预期降至2月份以来的最低水平。 英国工业联合会：6月份英国工厂的订单降幅更大 ...

Economic Performance in the Yangtze River Delta - The fixed asset investment in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Anhui showed positive year-on-year growth from January to May, although Jiangsu's investment decreased by 1.4% due to a decline in real estate development investment [1][8] - In terms of industrial performance, Anhui led the Yangtze River Delta with the highest growth rate in industrial added value in May, driven by the high-end and digital transformation of manufacturing [1][10] - The retail sales of consumer goods in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui all grew by over 5% from January to May, while Shanghai's retail sales only increased by 1.4%, primarily due to a decline in restaurant income [1][2][3] Fixed Asset Investment - Shanghai's fixed asset investment grew by 6.2%, while Zhejiang and Anhui saw increases of 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively [6][7] - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment decline was mainly attributed to a 15.3% drop in real estate development investment, despite an 8.7% increase in infrastructure investment [8][7] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale industries in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang grew by 8.4%, 7.7%, and 7.6%, respectively, with Shanghai's industrial output increasing by 4.8% [9][10] - High-tech manufacturing significantly contributed to Anhui's industrial growth, with a 29.3% increase in May, accounting for 17.6% of the province's industrial added value [10] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in Jiangsu benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories [5] - Shanghai's retail sales saw a turnaround in cumulative growth for the first time in a year, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [4][3]

Group 1 - China's consumer market has shown a stable performance in 2023, with retail sales reaching 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a growth rate acceleration of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The robust performance of the consumer market has attracted foreign companies, particularly from Europe, who see significant opportunities driven by China's large market size, strong manufacturing investment appeal, and improving innovation capabilities [1] - The CEO of Philips noted that consumer confidence and spending are rising in China, indicating a positive outlook for economic recovery [3] Group 2 - The agricultural company Louis Dreyfus expressed optimism about the diverse demand factors and growth potential in China's consumer market, which presents numerous opportunities for multinational companies [3] - Despite global economic uncertainties, there is a belief that China's ongoing medical reforms and rapidly developing digital ecosystem will create new opportunities for sustainable business growth [3] - The president of Dassault Systèmes highlighted that the demand driven by digital transformation in China is providing new growth opportunities, with the company establishing innovation centers in multiple cities [3][4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is significantly represented among foreign manufacturing enterprises in China, with 12 out of 30 major foreign companies involved in the sector, particularly in the electric vehicle market [6] - Foreign automotive companies are increasing investments in China's new energy vehicle sector, reflecting the country's position at the forefront of innovation in various fields [6] - Investment sources for China are diversifying, with double-digit growth from countries like the UK, South Korea, the Netherlands, and Japan, alongside increasing investments from Belt and Road Initiative countries [6]