Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of indecision, with prices fluctuating around $3380-$3390, and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to significantly influence future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown limited volatility, with a slight downward shift in the structural focus, indicating a tendency for technical corrections rather than sensitivity to geopolitical risks [2]. - The market is currently cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but investors are more focused on forward guidance and signals from Fed Chair Powell's press conference [1][4]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The suggested trading strategy involves shorting gold at the $3410-$3405 range, with a stop loss at $3420 and a target of $3375-$3365, holding positions if the price breaks below these levels [3]. - The focus for the day includes monitoring the $3400 resistance level and the $3365 support level, with an emphasis on adjusting positions based on developments in the geopolitical situation and the Federal Reserve's decisions [2][4].

李国庆和张丹红婚礼请柬上提及的"田字格"，是二人共同参与的公益事业。公众号信息显示，李国庆属"田字格"理事，二人曾一起参与暴走及募捐任 务。 近日，一张当当网创始人李国庆和资深记者张丹红的婚礼请柬流传于网络。 请柬上写道，"两列错过站的列车，终于在耳顺之年，停靠在同一个站台踏遍荆棘，终见繁花。我们依然相信爱情的美好。诚邀您见证两个北大生的迟 到答案场跨越世纪的青春补考"。 请柬上特别注明，谢绝宾客的礼金和礼物。"提倡每人于婚礼现场为我们老同学在贵州乡村创办的田字格小学捐款500元"。 李国庆此次的再婚对象张丹红，曾是德国主流媒体"德国之声"的资深记者，2004年升任该媒体中文部副主任。2008年，她参加德国电视节目时在中国 问题上坚持正确立场，维护了中国的利益，遭到反华政客的打压被停职。 李国庆还曾给张丹红的书籍《欧洲之痛——难民危机还是贫困入侵》作序。他在点评中写道，"张丹红是1983年北京的高考文科状元，北大有名的才 女。她大学专攻文学，后来成为德国主流大媒体的经济记者，没想到又客串历史学者，2017年出版的《从查理大帝到欧元-欧洲的统一梦》，让我这个 对欧洲不甚了解的人终于理顺了其头绪纷繁的历史"。 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The 55th Paris Air Show commenced on June 16, 2023, amidst a somber atmosphere due to a recent aviation accident, highlighting ongoing supply chain issues affecting production capacity and delivery in the aerospace industry [1] Orders Growth - Airbus secured a significant order from VietJet Air for 100 A321neo aircraft, with a potential addition of 50 more, marking the largest single order at the Paris Air Show [2] - Overall, Airbus's order volume surpassed that of the previous year's Farnborough Airshow, indicating a positive trend despite the absence of mega-orders like the 500 aircraft deal with IndiGo [2] - Additional confirmed orders for Airbus include 10 A350F freighters and 30 A320neo series from AviLease, and 25 A350-1000 from Riyadh Air, with potential increases in both orders [3][5] Market Dynamics - The A350 series has over 1,390 orders from more than 60 customers, but the A350-1000's order volume remains below expectations, prompting Airbus to consider a stretched version to enhance capacity [5] - Poland's LOT Polish Airlines placed an order for 40 A220 aircraft, marking its first purchase from Airbus, which may impact the market share of Bombardier's E2 series [6][7] Industry Challenges - Boeing's participation at the airshow was notably subdued, with no new aircraft displayed, following a recent crash involving a Boeing 787-8, which has raised concerns about the company's recovery and trust rebuilding efforts [8][9] - The aviation industry faces a collective challenge with supply chain crises impacting production capacity, leading to delays in aircraft deliveries and increased backlogs, with over 17,000 aircraft currently on order [10][11] - IATA forecasts a net profit of $36 billion for the global aviation industry by 2025, with total revenues expected to reach $979 billion, despite ongoing supply chain issues [10][11]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3090 | 3090 | O | 116 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | 226 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3170 | 3180 | -10 | 186 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2974 | 2989 | -15 | 116 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2981 | 2990 | -д | 109 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2974 | 2985 | -11 | 116 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | ਰੇਰੇ | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 19 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。最新公布的 5 月信贷数据表明实体融资需求仍偏弱，未来 需要政策面托底经济需求，政策面利好预期升温，股指的底部支撑较强，可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), emphasizing the need for a more market-oriented floating exchange rate system and the potential for RMB to become a more significant international currency amidst the declining credibility of the US dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - Since the pilot program for cross-border trade settlement in RMB began in 2009, the currency has transitioned from "non-internationalization" to "internationalization," becoming the third-largest currency in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [1]. - As of December 2024, RMB accounts for 6.0% of cross-border trade financing, closely trailing the euro at 6.5%, but significantly lower than the US dollar's 81.9% [2]. - The RMB is the fourth-largest international payment currency, with a share of 3.8%, again lower than the dollar and euro, which hold 50.2% and 22.0%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Challenges for RMB Internationalization - The RMB's share in foreign exchange reserves was 2.2% at the end of 2024, down 0.7 percentage points from its historical high in early 2022, indicating a significant gap compared to the dollar and euro [2]. - The RMB is not yet fully convertible, and its exchange rate remains influenced by concerns over domestic financial stability and export competitiveness, complicating the process of capital account opening [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, particularly with the US, pose additional risks to the RMB's internationalization efforts, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of global supply chains [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - To enhance the RMB's international status, it is crucial to implement proactive economic policies and deepen reforms that stimulate market vitality and improve the investment environment for foreign investors [10]. - Strengthening financial market infrastructure and aligning domestic regulations with international standards will facilitate greater foreign participation in RMB-denominated assets [11][12]. - Accelerating the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center will support the RMB's internationalization by enhancing its competitiveness and service capabilities in global markets [14].

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and creating new shocks to the international energy market, which could affect global supply chains and economic growth [1] - Historical conflicts in the Middle East have led to significant volatility in global energy markets, and the current situation is expected to lead to a period of turbulence in international oil prices [1][2] - Iran's oil production remains over 3 million barrels per day, with exports around 2 million barrels per day, but any disruption due to the conflict could significantly impact international energy supply [2] Group 2 - The potential impact of the conflict on other Gulf oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is noteworthy, although they have not yet been directly affected [3] - Iraq's security situation is critical, as it lies in the path of the conflict, and any escalation could disrupt its oil production [3] - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a significant variable that could lead to a spike in international oil prices, although Iran is unlikely to take such action unless absolutely necessary [4] Group 3 - The overall impact of the conflict on Iran's oil exports is manageable, as other OPEC+ countries have the capacity to compensate for any potential shortfall [5] - The current global oil demand is slowing, and supply remains relatively ample, which may buffer the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][5] - The ongoing conflict poses risks of escalation, including potential Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to further instability in the international energy market [5]

Group 1 - The global banking industry is experiencing increasing anxiety, indicating potential systemic risks in the future [1] - Several regional financial institutions have reported significant losses, such as Japan's Norinchukin Bank, which posted a record net loss of 1.8078 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2024 due to misjudgments in interest rate movements [1] - The volatility in long-term bond rates is affecting various regions, including Taiwan, where multiple insurance companies have faced substantial losses due to rising overseas interest rates [1] Group 2 - Major institutions express pessimism about the U.S. economy, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning of potential cracks in the bond market due to excessive fiscal spending and quantitative easing [2] - Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser highlighted a three-phase impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating that the current phase involves businesses pausing investments and hiring due to rising uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Influential global banks, despite strong performance, are increasing provisions for credit losses, reflecting heightened caution regarding future economic uncertainties [3] - JPMorgan set aside $3.3 billion for potential loan losses, a 75% increase from the previous year, while HSBC raised its expected credit loss provisions by $202 million for Q1 2025 [3] - The concentration of the U.S. banking sector has significantly increased, with the top four banks accounting for 44% of the industry's profits, raising concerns about systemic risks if any major bank encounters issues [3] Group 4 - Although risks are currently concentrated overseas, it is crucial for China to proactively mitigate potential impacts, especially with low domestic bond rates [4] - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize the economy and enhance the resilience of financial institutions, such as increasing capital for state-owned banks and facilitating mergers among smaller banks [4] - The overall sentiment among international banks regarding future economic performance is one of uncertainty, which is particularly concerning given the current global economic weakness and escalating geopolitical tensions [5]

暑期前，一位在川西做精品小团的旅行社业者小黄又来找我诉苦。 以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 为什么很多旅行社开始害怕大学生？ 文 ｜ theodore熙少 来源｜ 旅界（ID：tourismzonenews） 封面来源 ｜ unsplash 小黄解释："天府机场本来就在东南，距离市中心50公里，但学生代表当场表示："东西多，免费派车送机，否则退团。" 小黄说，"你们首晚赠送的酒店是自己选的呀，我们市区两台车或者一台商务车过来，单边80公里，来回160公里，这个成本在这，真不能免费。" 学生们不依不饶："你们是在欺骗消费者！"后来，不仅举报到地方文旅局，还直接报警了。 闹剧至今尚未结束。 这一次，他把矛头直指这届大学生，"信用真不行，维权意识倒是一个赛一个强。" 我问小黄怎么回事。 于是他细细讲了一遍最近遭遇的事情，小黄接了一个广州的5人学生团，合同里约定了赠送首晚成都接机酒店和一顿火锅。 但学生们出发前看了酒店地址，炸了。 "怎么离机场那么远？" 这还不是个例，在旅界搭建的行业社群里，今年以来，各地旅行社同行对大学生的吐槽像连环炸弹。 其中一个江西 ...

Core Point - Iran has warned that any country providing assistance to Israel will bear legal responsibility for the ongoing crisis [1] Group 1 - Iran's statement was directed to the United Nations, emphasizing the legal implications for nations aiding Israel [1]