Core Viewpoint - The global oil market experienced a significant drop in prices, with both WTI and Brent crude oil seeing rare single-day declines, attributed to multiple negative factors impacting demand and supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The drastic decline in oil prices has led to widespread panic and pessimism among market participants, prompting a rush to sell and hedge against risks [2][3]. - WTI crude oil for August delivery fell by $5.33, closing at $68.51 per barrel, a drop of 7.22% [2]. - Brent crude oil for August delivery dropped by $5.53, closing at $71.48 per barrel, with a similar decline of 7.18% [2]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by expectations of continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, has increased the cost of oil for buyers using other currencies, thereby suppressing demand [3]. - Concerns over economic slowdowns or recessions in major economies, particularly in the US and Europe, have dampened demand forecasts for oil, as reduced industrial activity and travel lead to lower consumption [3]. - Despite OPEC+'s efforts to cut production, signals from some major oil-producing countries indicate a potential increase in supply, which could further pressure prices [3]. Group 3: Implications - The drop in oil prices may provide short-term benefits for consumers, potentially leading to lower prices for gasoline and aviation fuel [4]. - Oil-producing countries and companies face significant pressure as falling prices erode fiscal revenues and profits, which could impact their investment and production plans if sustained [4]. - A decline in oil prices may help alleviate global inflationary pressures, which central banks may welcome, provided the downward trend continues and is effectively transmitted through the economy [4]. - The volatility in oil prices is likely to affect related stocks, commodity currencies, and overall market risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent plunge in oil prices serves as a reminder of the complex factors influencing the commodity market, with ongoing monitoring of economic concerns, monetary policy, and supply expectations being crucial [5]. - Key questions remain regarding whether the current market sentiment reflects a temporary emotional response or a fundamental trend reversal [5]. - The potential for OPEC+ intervention to stabilize prices and the future trajectory of the US dollar will be critical factors to watch [5].

黄金4小时图周期经过早盘的冲高回落，现在确定了震荡区间，早盘的高点3398刚好是4小时布林上轨的压制点，那么，下方就是布林下轨支撑3345附近，短 期内比较难以破位这个区间，周初的强弱决定多空的延续，1小时图方面，短线下降趋势向上突破后拉升3398附近，目前3340附近是小时图双底位置，再往 下走则支撑聚焦在3320附近支撑。所以，我认为今日短线可能还会在区间内来回挣扎，但是本周趋势仍然看好空头！不过操作上，不宜过分追空，先等待测 试趋势线后的反弹，关注上方3373--78压力区，这里逢高做空更加安全一些。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为 辅，上方短期重点关注3375-3385一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3340-3330一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's risk aversion has quickly receded, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil futures hitting the limit down at a 9% decline, currently priced at 518.6 yuan per barrel [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A senior Iranian official confirmed that Iran agreed to a ceasefire proposal related to the conflict with Israel after a conversation with the Qatari Prime Minister, although the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that no formal agreement has been reached [1]. - The current round of Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of easing without causing disruptions to oil supply, which may lead to a bearish trend in oil prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic and supply-demand support for the recent oil price increase is weak, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East being the primary factor for the price premium [1]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss potential production increases in early July, which may put pressure on oil prices in the near term [2]. - Factors such as low inventory levels, seasonal demand peaks, and declining shale oil supply may limit the speed of oil price declines, suggesting a shift from an upward trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation before a potential downward trend [1][2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The oil trading sector is facing mid-term layout opportunities, with geopolitical disturbances potentially having pulse-like impacts, necessitating risk control in trading [2]. - In scenarios where geopolitical factors have limited escalation, a supply-demand perspective may favor short-selling at higher price points [2].

2025 年 6 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 原油：地缘降温带动大跌，反套择机建仓 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI8 月原油期货收跌 5.33 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%，报 68.51 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 5.53 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%，报 71.48 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 32.20 元/桶，跌幅 5.65%， 报 537.70 元/桶。 6. CNN 驻德黑兰记者称听到了巨大的爆炸声。德黑兰上空正在进行防空活动。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 1. 金十数据 6 月 24 日讯，当地时间 24 日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在内阁会议结束时，要求内阁 成员暂不对最近进展，即"特朗普宣布以伊同意全面停火"发表评论，直至另行通知。 2. 据以色列 12 频道报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡告诉政府部长们不要向媒体谈论"最近的事态 发展"。 3. 伊朗高级官员确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡旋的、美国提出的与以色列的停火协议。（路透 社） 4. 一位官员透露，美国总统特朗普告知卡塔尔 ...

Group 1 - The Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to take place [1] - NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit [1] - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for June will be released at 16:00 [3] Group 2 - The UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations for June will be announced at 18:00 [4] - The US current account for Q1 and Canada's CPI for May will be reported at 20:30 [5] - The US FHFA House Price Index for April and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index for April will be released at 21:00 [6] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech at 21:00 [6] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss monetary policy at 21:15 [7] - The US Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June will be published at 22:00 [8] Group 4 - Fed Chair Powell will present the semi-annual monetary policy report at 22:00 [8] - Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee meeting at 22:00 [8] - Fed's Harker will participate in a panel discussion at 22:15 [9] Group 5 - Fed's Williams will speak the following day at 00:30 [10] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending June 20 will be released at 04:30 [11]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil prices have dropped by 9%, while Brent crude oil has decreased by 8.5%, indicating a significant decline in the oil market [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil prices is linked to geopolitical developments, particularly Trump's comments regarding Iran and military actions [1] - Trump's statement expresses gratitude towards Iran for notifying the U.S. about attacks on military bases, suggesting a potential shift towards peace [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil experienced a significant decline of 8.00%, currently priced at $67.76 per barrel, amid a moderate response from Trump regarding the Iranian attack [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - WTI crude oil price dropped by 8.00% [1] - Current price of WTI crude oil is $67.76 per barrel [1] Group 2: Political Context - Trump issued a mild statement concerning the Iranian attack [1]

WTI原油失守71美元/桶，日内跌3.93%。 ...

布伦特原油期货跌幅收窄至2.1%，报73.87美元/桶。 据伊朗媒体IRNA报道，伊朗向美国在卡塔尔和伊拉克的军事基地发射导弹。 ...

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月24日 周二 ① 待定 夏季达沃斯论坛举行 ② 待定 北约国家元首和政府首脑举行峰会 ③ 01:00 美国总统特朗普会见国家安全团队 ④ 01:10 美联储古尔斯比参加会议 ⑤ 02:30 美联储库格勒和威廉姆斯主持活动 ⑥ 16:00 德国6月IFO商业景气指数 ⑦ 18:00 英国6月CBI工业订单差值 ⑧ 20:30 加拿大5月CPI月率 ⑨ 20:30 美国第一季度经常帐 ⑩ 21:00 美国4月FHFA房价指数月率 ⑪ 21:00 美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数年率 ⑫ 21:00 欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话 ⑬ 21:15 美联储哈玛克就货币政策发表讲话 ⑭ 22:00 美国6月谘商会消费者信心指数 ⑮ 22:00 美国6月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数 ⑯ 22:00 美联储主席鲍威尔发表半年度货币政策报告证词 ⑰ 22:00 英国央行行长贝利出席上议院经济事务委员会会议 ⑱ 22:15 美联储哈玛克参与专题小组讨论 ⑲ 次日00:30 美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话 ⑳ 次日04:30 美国至6月20日当周API原油库存 相关链接 ...