Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, heavily promoted by President Trump, was passed in the House of Representatives after a lengthy voting process [1][4] - The bill was approved in the Senate with a narrow margin of 51-50, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote [2][4] - The legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade [6][7] Legislative Process - The bill faced significant challenges in both the House and Senate, with debates and procedural votes extending over several days [4][5] - In the House, the bill passed with a slim margin of 219 votes in favor to 213 against, despite opposition from some Republican members [4][5] - The Senate's voting process was marked by a record-long debate, including a forced reading of the entire bill text [4][6] Financial Implications - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an average annual deficit of 7% and an increase in national debt by over $3.3 trillion by fiscal year 2034 [7][10] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will result in a significant income disparity, with the wealthiest households seeing an increase in income while the poorest will experience a decrease [8][9] Political Dynamics - The passage of the bill highlights the deep polarization within U.S. politics, with significant dissent among Republican factions and unified opposition from Democrats [9] - The bill is expected to be a focal point in the upcoming midterm elections, with potential repercussions for Republican control of Congress [9] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will exacerbate the already growing U.S. debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion [10] - The dollar has shown signs of weakness, recording its worst performance in decades, which may be linked to the anticipated economic impacts of the new legislation [10]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - Bessent believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has deviated in its judgment regarding interest rates [1] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [1] - Bessent indicates that if the Fed does not lower rates soon, the potential cut in September could be larger [1][2] Group 2: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - Bessent did not directly respond to calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's resignation but emphasized the need for the Fed to control spending like others [3] - There are strong candidates being considered for Powell's successor, with speculation that Trump may announce a replacement before September or October [3] - Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Larry Kudlow, and Bessent himself, among others [3] Group 3: Rate Expectations and Debt Issuance - Bessent suggests that the Fed officials' rate expectations may be influenced by their appointment backgrounds, noting significant differences in the dot plot between Trump-appointed and non-Trump-appointed members [4] - The Treasury Department plans to significantly increase short-term debt issuance to replenish cash reserves following the increase in the federal debt ceiling [5] - Bessent mentions that the debt management process is systematic and orderly, but they will consider the current interest rate environment in future debt issuance strategies [5][6]

30年期英债收益率跌8.1个基点，5.338%，16:16刷新日低至5.299%；50年期英债收益率跌8.3个基点，报 4.684%，16:16跌至4.649%刷新日低。 2/10年期英债收益率利差跌3.126个基点，报+69.779个基点。 周四（7月3日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率下跌7.1个基点，报4.542%，"跳空低开"后全天处于 下跌状态，整体交投于4.603%-4.512%区间，北京时间20:30发布美国非农就业报告带来大约4个基点的 升幅。 两年期英债收益率跌4.1个基点，报3.841%，16:15刷新日低至3.808%，随后低位震荡——非农就业报告 带来超过3个基点的回升幅度。 ...

德国商业银行策略师Christoph Rieger表示，近年已大幅收窄的意大利和法国10年期国债利差将抹平。意 大利利差已受益于德国财政计划，德国的计划提振了对欧元区深化融合的憧憬。尽管如此，德国以外地 区的债务可持续性可能面临挑战，因为该地区明年债券发行量增加，在债券市场环境不再宽松之际利差 扩大。Rieger认为，鉴于法国"充满挑战"的财政和政治背景，法国国债"尤其容易受到影响"。意大利10 年期国债收益率目前比法国高出17个基点，低于一年前逾70个基点的水平。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds decreased by 4.9 basis points, settling at 2.615%, with trading throughout the day between 2.660% and 2.610% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 1.834%, trading within a range of 1.875% to 1.829% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield dropped by 4.0 basis points, reaching 3.077%, with a slight recovery following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 1.689 basis points, now at +77.735 basis points [1]

美股"妖股"狂飙。 受一系列超预期的宏观数据推动，美股三大指数全线走强，纳指、标普500指数盘中均创出历史新高，道指逼 近历史新高。其中，脑再生科技再度爆发，盘中一度暴涨超170%，多次触及熔断。 有分析称，最新发布的一系列宏观数据缓解了市场对美国经济增速放缓的担忧。其中，美国6月非农就业数据 预示着美国劳动力市场仍具备较强的韧性。另外，美国6月ISM非制造业指数报50.8，略高于预期。 与此同时，美国与欧盟的关税谈判也传来最新消息。美国财长贝森特称，今天与欧盟谈判代表会面。欧盟委员 会主席冯德莱恩则表示，欧盟希望在下周的最后期限前与美国达成一项原则性的贸易协议。 受独立日休假影响，今夜美股将提前3小时于北京时间周五凌晨1点休市（盘后交易时段为1点至5点），周五全 天休市。 全线大涨 北京时间7月3日晚间，美股三大指数集体高开高走，截至23:00，纳指涨0.97%，标普500指数涨0.81%，均创出 历史新高；道指涨0.83%，逼近历史新高。 美股大型科技股亦全线上涨，英伟达一度涨超2%，盘中总市值最高达到3.92万亿美元；微软、亚马逊、博 通、台积电ADR均涨超1%。 值得一提的是，在美上市的中概股公司—— ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerated issuance of local government bonds in China during the first half of the year, with a total issuance of approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 57% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In the first half of the year, local government bonds were issued at a rapid pace, with new bonds accounting for approximately 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, while refinancing bonds reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, growing by approximately 73% [1][2]. - More than half of the funds from local government bonds were used for refinancing old debts, which alleviated current fiscal pressures and allowed local governments to focus more on development and public welfare [2]. Group 2: Fund Allocation and Project Focus - The newly issued special bonds, totaling around 2.2 trillion yuan, were primarily directed towards infrastructure and public welfare projects, with significant allocations to municipal and industrial park infrastructure (28%), transportation projects (19%), and land reserve projects (11%) [3]. - The government has allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve projects to stabilize the real estate market, leading to increased funding in this area [3]. Group 3: Debt Management and Financial Health - The average issuance term of local government bonds has extended to 16.4 years, with an average interest rate of 1.95%, lower than the previous year's rate of 2.29%, which helps reduce financing costs [4]. - As of May 2025, the total local government debt stood at 51.25 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that debt risks are generally manageable [4]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the issuance of long-term special bonds to support economic stability and growth, with expectations for increased issuance in the third quarter [4].

Core Insights - The winning bid rate for U.S. Treasury auctions as of July 3rd is 4.24%, an increase from the previous rate of 4% [1] Group 1 - The current winning bid rate reflects a rise in interest rates, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment and market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the winning bid rate for U.S. Treasury auctions as of July 3 has decreased to 41% from a previous value of 56.11% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for U.S. Treasury auctions has increased to 3.26 from a previous value of 3.06, suggesting a higher demand for government debt securities [1]