证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 宏观经济专题研究 "投资驱动型增长"正在走向效率悬崖 增长引擎的动态平衡原理。经济增长的根本动力源于投资与消费的动态平 衡。投资直接创造新供给，拉动增长；消费则代表需求，是企业利润的源泉， 并通过支撑利润间接拉动投资和增长。从分配角度看，GDP 分为资本收入和 非资本收入（劳动报酬+税收）。资本收入集中在少数人手中，人均占有量 大但边际消费倾向低，是投资/供给的主要来源；非资本收入人群人均占有 量小但边际消费倾向高，构成消费/需求的主力。这导致投资与消费天然存 在此消彼长的张力，其背后是资本与非资本收入分配的博弈。若分配过度向 资本倾斜，短期内虽刺激投资，但会压制消费需求，消费疲软进而侵蚀企业 利润，最终反噬投资本身。因此，可持续增长依赖于投资与消费比例的协调 平衡，而非一味扩大投资。 中国投资效率衰减的实证链条。关键的会计恒等式（资本收入占比 = 资本 回报率 r * (资本存量 K / GDP)）揭示了核心关系：在资本收入占比稳定 的平衡状态下，资本回报率（r）与资本产出比（K/GDP）呈反比。其中，K/GDP 是衡量投资效率的关键指标：其上升意味着资本存量增速快 ...

证券研究报告 煤炭开采 行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 27 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 煤炭行业中期策略报告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——成本倒挂煤价筑底，供需再平衡龙头先启航 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭成本刚性上涨，煤价跌破完全成本，行业或已至底部。煤炭行业常以北方港口 下水煤价格跟踪煤价涨跌，为直观对比煤炭成本与价格标杆，我们选取中国神华、 陕西煤业、中煤能源三家代表我国晋陕蒙动力煤主产地资源禀赋的龙头上市煤企， 根据其较为一致的成本核算准则及较长期的历史财报数据，结合行业公允的运输成 本，测算出 2014-2024 年行业的完全成本及现金成本。据 ...

Summary of EON Resources Inc. Special Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: EON Resources Inc. - **Industry**: Oil and Gas, specifically focusing on the Permian Basin Key Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Announcement**: EON Resources has acquired the South Justice Field in the Permian Basin, New Mexico, for a total of 1 million shares of Class A common stock, valued at approximately $500,000 in cash [5][7][20]. 2. **Current Production and Cash Flow**: The field is currently cash flowing $100,000 per month, translating to an annual net cash flow of $1.2 million [8][20]. 3. **Production Potential**: The field had a production of 50 barrels per day before acquisition, which was doubled to 100 barrels per day through minor repairs. EON aims to increase production to between 250 to 400 barrels per day within a quarter [9][11][19][66]. 4. **Field Characteristics**: The South Justice Field consists of approximately 5,400 acres with 208 producing and injection wells. The field has a history of low decline rates and significant oil reserves, with an estimated 15 million barrels recoverable through reactivation and drilling [13][14][18][26]. 5. **Comparison with Existing Assets**: The acquisition increases EON's oil in place by 20% and acreage in the Permian by 33%, enhancing overall production by 10% immediately and 20% in the near term [27][26]. 6. **Operational Strategy**: EON plans to reactivate idle wells and utilize existing infrastructure to minimize costs. The company expects minimal impact on general and administrative expenses [8][24][27]. 7. **Market Valuation**: The purchase price is considered reasonable compared to market values for similar fields, with estimates of $20,000 to $50,000 per flowing barrel for more developed fields [20][21]. 8. **Future Drilling Potential**: EON sees potential for horizontal drilling in the South Justice Field, similar to their existing Grayburg Jackson Field, which could further enhance production [14][26]. 9. **Economic Outlook**: The company anticipates needing oil prices around $60 per barrel to be attractive for drilling, with a potential range of $60 to $80 in the future [64][66]. 10. **Funding and Financial Health**: EON is optimistic about securing funding to support operations and retire existing debts, with ongoing discussions with multiple investors [49][52][66]. Other Important Content 1. **Regulatory Compliance**: The acquisition included assurances regarding compliance with state regulations for plugging and abandonment of non-productive wells [85]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The call highlighted the impact of external factors, such as geopolitical events and U.S. oil policy, on oil prices and drilling activity [60][66]. 3. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a noted concern among investors regarding stock performance, with management emphasizing the long-term value of the acquisition and operational strategy [50][66]. 4. **Chevron Relationship**: EON has a strong relationship with Chevron, which is beneficial for pricing and sales of oil produced from the South Justice Field [96][102]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of EON Resources Inc.'s strategic acquisition and operational plans in the oil and gas sector.

我是Robin邢思强我的同事我们的资深中国经济学家郑宁坚利也在线这个暑期特别谈大概我们已经开启了有接近五年多了基本上就是每个暑假前夕六月份给即将休假的各位投资者朋友带上一些所谓的精神食粮但这个精神食粮也不希望它特别枯燥 当经济不好的时候大家又一窝蜂地涌向了买美国国债也就是说这是一个美股和美债之间的二人转万变不离其宗这是过去30年双循环之间出现的一个美元一直独秀美国资产例外论的现象然而最近的三大政策变化从贸易保护主义实际上意味着从过去30多年支持的全球化慢慢走向了偏美国优先本土保护主义 所以尽管我们会涉及到一些老生常谈的分析接下来中国经济地缘政治的一些方法论一些框架但更多的也会融入我们最近半年感受到了一些新的变化这些变化对各种跨类资产的投资带来的新启示就通过音频的方式但是我们会给大家展示我们精心制作的文献PPT 那么可能会花个三到五分钟简单的介绍一下结论后面Jenny振宁会花个15分钟左右把最近的三桩大事就是中美贸易摩擦中国国内刺激政策以及我们对从今年看到明年中国的通缩能不能走出来的一个周期性的判断讲清楚后面我也花15分钟或略多的时间把我们的研究框架 以及长线来讲中美地缘政治博弈之下全球的资产配置者现在感受到了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the employment market has reached a balance, with monthly job additions estimated to be between 80,000 to 100,000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, highlighted ongoing uncertainties regarding the overall balance of supply and demand in the economy, as well as persistent inflationary pressures within the system [1] Group 1 - There is a lack of clarity on the equilibrium between supply and demand in the UK economy [1] - Inflationary pressures remain a concern, indicating that the economic environment is still facing challenges [1]

半年度报告—碳酸锂 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 6 月 | 年 | 26 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★扩产能周期难言结束，矿端去库压力边际缓解 资源端年内新增产能推进整体顺利，预计 2025 年全球原生锂资 源供应 160.8 万吨 LCE，同比+27.2 万吨 LCE，远期项目储备依 旧充足，扩产能周期难言结束。但在矿端库存压力边际去化、利 润驱动不足的情况下，下半年矿端进一步去库的压力有限，碳酸 锂供应增速将向下靠拢于同期资源端增速。 ★终端增速小幅下修，关注表需预期差 有 色 金 属 维持此前 20%-26%的全球新能源车销量年度增速预期；强制配 储取消、对美出口需求前置增加了储能端的不确定性，下修全球 储能电芯出货量增速 10pct 至 30%-40%。下游各环节库存天数均 处中性，车端去库更多是结构性压力而非全行业风险，低价低波 环境内，关注"淡季不淡、旺季不旺"带来的预期差交易机会。 ★如何理解成本支撑的下移？ 2025 年理论成本支撑降至 ...

国内玻璃现货价格平稳，近日来部分区域成交量有所回升，沙河地区部分企业产销率阶段性突破至 200%以上，华东、华中、华南等地区也接近供需平衡，生产企业库存或存缓慢下降。 综合来看，虽玻璃现货价格已跌破市场绝大多数企业生产线成本，但玻璃需求也在同步下行，故总体供 需格局仍偏宽松，若盘面进行贴水修复，则部分低成本企业在现货经营压力增加的背景下或再度考虑套 保。因此，在价格大幅低于生产成本时，期货盘面虽然存在一定的反弹需求，但从当下时点来看，若无 外力干预刺激，则反弹的持续驱动力偏弱。(作者单位：齐盛期货） 从需求端来看，因订单无有效回暖，近期下游加工企业心态仍偏悲观，且在行业利润微薄的情况下暂无 大量囤货的想法，采购策略上保持按需低价采购，多数下游深加工企业的开工率与往年同期相比偏低。 库存结构方面，近期因玻璃现货价格连续下跌，部分现货价格已跌破企业生产成本，当前中游库存已多 数去化，因此中游存在低价备货意向，但备货行情的持续性不宜过度乐观。 从供应端来看，数据显示，当前全国浮法玻璃生产线共计285条，在产220条；日熔量共计157255吨，较 上期减少1800吨；当前行业产能利用率为80.63%，位于近五年同期偏 ...

Group 1 - The theme of the 35th National Land Day is "Conserving and Intensively Using Land, Strictly Upholding the Cultivated Land Red Line" [1] - Guangdong has achieved a balance of cultivated land for 25 consecutive years and a net increase in cultivated land for 4 consecutive years, despite only occupying 1.9% of the national land area while supporting 8.9% of the population and 10.9% of the economic output [1] - The province has implemented a "land steward system" and established a grid-based supervision mechanism for cultivated land protection, enhancing the management and compensation mechanisms at provincial, municipal, and county levels [1] Group 2 - Since 2024, the provincial natural resources department has initiated concentrated and contiguous cultivated land remediation projects, supporting various cities and districts in Guangdong to promote the protection of cultivated land and permanent basic farmland [2] - The implementation of the "Guangdong Provincial Cultivated Land Protection Special Plan (2021-2035)" has led to innovative approaches such as "forest-cultivated land replacement," "multiple fields combined," and "small fields becoming large fields" [2]

半年度报告—镍&不锈钢 需求决定方向，原料掌管节奏 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 镍&不锈钢：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 | 月 | 26 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★矿端 下游需求弱势逐步给予上游负反馈，冶炼端大批量亏损，仅 MHP 环节利润空间较好，这会使得冶炼厂对火法矿压价心态较重。三 季度印尼雨季影响减弱，配额并未给到明显限制，且冶炼端有减 产预期的背景下，印尼原料将面临升水下滑压力。但值得注意的 是，高品火法矿在市场上供应紧张，价格下跌幅度或将受限。 ★冶炼端 目前上下游同时挤压冶炼利润至倒挂，但中资企业产量调控动作 对利润的敏感度较低，短期减产不及预期的情况下可能会增大过 剩格局。结构上，印尼 NPI 仍有新增产能投放，但多数已经推 迟投产节奏，目前供需边际恶化，关注下半年减产节奏；精炼镍 方面，仍处扩产周期，但份额逐步向头部集中，一体化湿法挤占 火法是未来趋势，年内供应增量基本匹配中间品供应增量，但当 前隐性补库对显性库存形成支撑，需关注在下半年的持续性。 ★需求端 ...