当"借债成瘾"的邻居再次敲门时，中国这次选择了锁紧钱袋。这个将国债钟摆调至38万亿美元的庞然大物，正用美元霸权的手术刀划破全球信用体系。从 2008年金融危机到2025年债务上限谈判，华盛顿政客们在国会山上演全武行，两党为军费福利撕扯体面，最终以"给气球打气"的方式将债务上限提升至38万 亿美元。这种饮鸩止渴的玩法，让国际投资者用脚投票——美债收益率从3%飙升至4.5%，日元英镑连续12个月抛售美债，华尔街的债务游戏正在演变为全 球金融体系的慢性中毒。 面对这场精心编排的"狼来了"戏码，中国早已备好三道防火墙。第一道是黄金铸就的诺亚方舟：两年间日均增持3吨黄金，总储备突破7377万盎司，足以铺 满三个鸟巢体育场的金色盾牌，将外汇储备中黄金占比从3.19%提升至5.36%。第二道防线是人民币国际化闪电战：东南亚菜市场扫码支付、俄罗斯石油管 回望2008年的救援往事，中国曾以4万亿外汇储备换来的是贸易战清单和技术封锁黑名单。今天北京金融街上的决策者们深谙：国际金融体系从不庇护"善意 债权人"，只有铸币权与黄金储备构筑的护城河才能赢得对等对话。当美联储印钞机轰鸣着收割全球铸币税，当华盛顿政客把国债当作政治筹码，中国 ...

美债曾被誉为全球最安全的资产，但如今它却正经历着逐渐崩溃的过程。曾是美债最大持有者的美联储，短短几年间已经从最大持有者变成了最大的卖家。 美联储不再接盘，甚至中国和日本也逐渐停止了购买，减持已经成为常态。那么，谁将接手这越来越多、利息越来越高的美债呢？ 因此，白宫将目光投向了"稳定币"作为可能的"接盘侠"。稳定币虽然表面上属于加密货币，但实质上是美元代币。每一枚USDC或USDT背后，通常锚定的 是现金或短期美债。过去三年，稳定币市场规模疯涨，从不到300亿美元飙升至2500亿美元，预计到2028年，市场规模将突破2万亿美元。如果这一增长趋势 持续，稳定币体系有望持有接近1.5万亿美元的美债。美国将推出《GENIUS法案》，为稳定币提供合规框架，试图将其纳入体系内部，目标明确：让稳定币 成为官方默许的美债买家。最初的试点将专注于短期国债，但额度将逐月扩大。 随着美联储开始缩表，撤回过多的流动性，2022年这一转折点已经到来。到2025年，美联储累计减持了1.5万亿美元的美债，从全球最大持有者，变成了最 大的卖家。利率一路攀升，10年期国债收益率一度突破5%，使得美债的融资成本失控，这已不再是夸张的说法，而是财 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Treasury yield curve rebounded across the board due to the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, and the Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The U.S. internal game uncertainty has increased, and the U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index has closed up for four consecutive trading days, challenging 3400 points. Core technology sectors have performed well, and micro - cap stocks have continued the valuation repair trend. Next week, the overall opportunities may outweigh the risks [1][42] - In terms of convertible bond styles, equal - weighted leads weighted, small - cap leads large - cap, high - price leads low - price, and AAA - rated bonds perform weakly while medium - and low - rated bonds perform strongly [1][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. The equity market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the equity market rose overall. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 1011.75 billion yuan to 11856.64 billion yuan, with a weekly on - week increase of 9.33% [9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries closed up. Communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, computers, and basic chemicals led the gains, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel led the losses [15] 1.2. The convertible bond market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries closed up, with 7 industries having a gain of over 2%. Media, communication, computers, household appliances, and beauty care led the gains, while building materials led the losses [18] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 515.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.67 billion yuan, with a on - week change of - 7.15%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 104.79 billion yuan, and the first - ranked one had a trading volume of 233.31 billion yuan [18] - Approximately 90.53% of convertible bond issues rose, about 37.68% had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 22.95% had a gain of over 2% [18] 1.3. Comparison of stock and bond market sentiments - From June 2nd to June 6th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets decreased significantly, and the underlying stock market had a larger decline in trading volume and a lower quantile level [36] - Approximately 89.71% of convertible bonds and 77.70% of underlying stocks closed up. About 40.36% of convertible bonds had a larger gain or loss than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [36] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - The U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level due to the increase in internal game uncertainty in the U.S [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, next week's opportunities may outweigh risks. It is recommended to allocate core technology themes that have corrected significantly and focus on medium - and low - priced targets with low business uncertainty, sufficient cash, and a positive attitude towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions [1][42] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Qilu Convertible Bond, Chuanheng Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, Wankai Convertible Bond, Dayu Convertible Bond, Qizheng Convertible Bond, Baidian Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, Wantian Convertible Bond, and Jinlun Convertible Bond [1]

今天早上起来看到的三条好消息： 原因很简单，以前大家都说港股的流动性很差，实际上目前有两股资金正在大举进入港股，一个是外资，如果外资要买中国股票会率先从港股下手，因为港 股是一个全球化市场，资金进出相对方便，另一个资金就是南下资金了，这个规模也是不可小视的； 而这个当中最大的变化是，全球资金的格局会迎来大变局，随着美元的走弱，以及美国经济未来因为高债务所面临的风险，我相信中国经济的稳定以及中国 股票的高性价比，这些优势早晚会吸引全球资金进场的，全球资金来了入口当然是离岸市场了，这个时候港股的优势自然就体现出来了。 其三，央行昨天发布的数据显示，5月末的黄金储备为7383万盎司，比4月末的7377万盎司增加了6万盎司，说明5月份央行又增持黄金了； 大家想不明白，目前国际金价处于这么高的位置了，为什么央行还在持续的增持呢，我想央行的增持黄金跟我们普通人的投资是有本质性区别的，央行之所 以增持，主要是为了对冲风险，在美元的贬值趋势和美债的高风险前提下，这个时候持续增持黄金，就能起到分散的风险作用。 当然了不仅仅是我们的央行在增持黄金，全球央行的做法都是如此，大家对美元不放心了，还有美债的额度越来越高，这就是最大的不 ...

可奇怪的是，随着中、日、英等传统买家开始持续减持，但到了2025年，仍然减持美债1.5万亿美元。 那么，究竟是谁在购买美债？他们又隐藏着怎样的目的？ 美国通过滥发美元加速自身的通胀，而且又通过美元潮汐拉升了全球通胀，不过当美国的盟友们都开始降息为通胀"降火"后，美联储也开始了降息。 根据最新数据显示，中国在2024年继续坚持减持美债的战略，截至今年，中国持有的美债已降至7654亿美元，相比2013年高峰时期的1.3万亿美元，中国已 累计抛售了超过5000亿美债，减持幅度高达41.5%。 就连日本作为当前美债的最大海外持有国，同样也在悄悄撤退，例如2022年全年，日本减持美债2245亿美元、2023年9月，日本再次减持285亿美元，而且 2024年6月，日本继续减持106亿美元。 甚至英国作为第三大美债海外持有者，在2024年10月单月减持184亿美元，而且2024年10月，美债前三大海外债主日本、中国和英国合计减持509亿美元，当 月美债海外持有总量ky57a9.com5减少了772亿美元。 要知道，这一趋势背后是全球对美债信心的转变，毕竟从2012年到2023年，外国持有美债的比例从35%下降至21%左右， ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 07 日 第三，特朗普政策的三重影响。一是关税对就业的影响暂时可控。受关税冲击较大的行业，3-4 月运输仓储 就业分别减少 2.1 万、0.9 万，5 月转为小幅增加 0.6 万；继 4 月零售业就业下降 0.3 万之后，5 月继续下降 0.7 万；制造业 5 月就业减少 0.9 万， 4 月增加 0.5 万。休闲和酒店、金融等行业就业改善（环比分别较前月高 1.9、1.0 万），部分对冲了关税带来的影响。 二是移民就业继续受到冲击，但土著就业并未因此继续改善。5 月家庭调查数据显示，美国土著和出生于国 外（缺乏移民直接统计，作为代理变量）就业人数分别下降 44.4 万、下降 22.4 万，而 4 月时分别增加 108 万、 下降 42.2 万，可能受到关税的冲击。特朗普驱逐移民，在政策执行初期，移民大量退出劳动力市场，这些岗位 的中的优质部分可能被土著获取。剩余较差的岗位土著可能不愿做，例如医疗行业的初级岗位。移民减少还对应 的经济总量下降效应，消费、租房等需求面临减少。 三是联邦政府裁员的影响仍在。5 月联邦政府就业人数减少 2 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment is described as "tricky, uneven but full of opportunities," influenced by inflation pressures, debt sustainability concerns, and the dominance of tech stocks in earnings growth [1] - Inflation risks are anticipated to rise, with Goldman Sachs predicting core PCE to increase from 2.5% to 3.6% by year-end, although the market seems to view this as a one-time event [2] - The long-term inflation expectations have remained stable since spring 2022, indicating limited concerns about a long-term inflation recovery [4] Group 2 - Debt sustainability remains a concern, particularly with long-term interest rates, despite a recent easing in the 30-year rate [6] - The U.S. dollar faces challenges as it remains relatively expensive across various valuation models [8] - There is a notable divergence between the actual 30-year interest rates and the dollar's performance [11] Group 3 - The U.S. real estate sector presents a complex outlook, with long-term interest rate risks and a weak supply-demand dynamic posing threats, yet a long-term bullish trend indicates resilience [12] - Defense and nuclear stocks have shown significant gains, with Goldman Sachs' Korean defense stock basket up 127% year-to-date, alongside strong performances from European and Japanese defense stocks [14][16] - Tech giants are leading earnings growth, with the "Magnificent Seven" outperforming 493 other companies in this regard [18][20] Group 4 - There has been a significant change in capital expenditure among tech giants following the emergence of ChatGPT, with expectations for continued growth [23] - The gap between U.S. AI leaders and laggards is widening, following a pattern of "slow, slow, slow, then a rapid acceleration" in AI deployment and benefits [24] - Despite a surge in new issuance, companies are engaging in large-scale buybacks, indicating a strong repurchase power in the market [26] Group 5 - The global systemic trading community holds a moderate amount of index futures, suggesting speculative positions are not as strong as six weeks ago but are not yet a hindrance [28] - May witnessed the largest net buying of global stocks in history, indicating a potential extension of risk-taking by hedge funds [29] - Value storage tools, such as gold and Bitcoin, have performed well in terms of total return and Sharpe ratio, while U.S. equities have lagged behind global peers [30]

第一财经报道，2025年全球金融市场正面临历史性考验，美国国债到期规模突破9.2万亿美元，其中仅6月份到期量就达6.5万亿，相当于2024年全年到期量的 73%。这一数据直接揭示了美债危机的紧迫性，而美国内部的去美元化趋势更让这一问题雪上加霜。 截至2025年4月，美国国债总额突破36万亿美元，相当于每个美国公民负债超过10万美元，债务占GDP比重逾120%。2024年美国国债净利息支出高达8820亿 美元，首次超过军费开支，占全年财政收入的23.9%。这种依赖"借新还旧"的模式，使美国财政陷入恶性循环。2025年美债到期规模与2024年大致持平，但 短期国库券到期滚续压力显著高于以往，期限结构进一步偏短。若按现行利率展期，仅2025年债务利息支出就将突破1.17万亿美元，相当于美国2024军费预 算的1.32倍。 美元资料图 更严峻的是，美债市场正经历二战以来最深刻的投资者结构转型。截至2024年12月，外国官方持有美债占比已从2015年的45%降至32%，而美联储与美国国 内个人与机构投资者占比突破68%。这种变化导致美国本土机构的风险偏好与国债收益率形成倒挂，养老基金对10年期国债需求集中在3.5%~4 ...

《中国经营报》：美国加征关税后，全球金融市场出现了剧烈波动，你如何解读这种市场反应？ 邓志坚：目前，全球关税政策出现了明显的波动和调整。虽然多个国家与美国之间已经达成了初步的贸 易协议，但这些协议尚未完全落地，政策的不确定性仍在持续。这种背景下，无论是全球贸易还是金融 投资市场，都受到较大影响。投资者一方面面临方向判断困难，另一方面也滋生出更强的避险情绪，市 场短期内可能仍将维持震荡态势。 亚太市场相较于欧美市场而言，目前仍较为稳定。其中原因在于，美国提高关税对加拿大和墨西哥的冲 击尤为显著。加拿大对美出口占其总出口约70%，占其GDP的十几个百分点；墨西哥的比例则更高，对 美出口占比接近80%，对本国经济影响巨大。相比之下，欧元区对美出口仅占其总出口的15%—16%， 对GDP的影响在3%左右，这一比例与中国相近。然而，欧元区还面临地缘政治风险、内部选举变数以 及政党更迭等多重挑战，不确定性反而更大。 相较之下，中国所在的亚洲市场整体表现出更强的稳定性和韧性。中国在与美国的贸易关系中具备更大 的谈判空间，也拥有更多应对手段和政策工具。因此，在全球不确定性持续的背景下，亚太市场尤其是 中国市场，短期内受到的直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on the performance of gold and silver in the market, particularly in relation to the upcoming non-farm payroll report and its potential impact on prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold is experiencing strong momentum, while silver is showing signs of a comeback [1] - The potential influence of the non-farm payroll report on market dynamics is highlighted, suggesting it could further ignite interest in these precious metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A recent easing of the U.S. Treasury sell-off is noted, raising questions about whether the dollar will rebound as a result [1]