Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve in policy decision-making, stating he has never sought meetings with any U.S. president, and all such meetings have been at the request of the president [1][3]. Group 1 - Powell's statement was made after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, highlighting that he has no reason to proactively request meetings with the president, reinforcing the Fed's independence from political influence [3]. - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions are based on economic data and market conditions rather than political factors, as reiterated by Powell [3][5]. - Powell's remarks aim to address market speculation regarding the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the government, especially amid economic uncertainty and frequent policy adjustments [5]. Group 2 - The statement serves to alleviate market concerns about potential political influence on Federal Reserve policies, assuring investors that decisions will continue to be driven by economic data and market dynamics [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price experienced a decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, down 0.67% from the previous day, with a trading range between $3366.36 and $3319.82 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted increasing risks related to inflation and unemployment, complicating the economic outlook [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a key support level at $3303 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are expected to rebound, potentially surpassing $60 per barrel, amid expectations that the US-China trade war has peaked [4] - Recent declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices were attributed to market skepticism regarding trade negotiations and positive signals from Iran's nuclear talks [4] - The technical outlook for oil shows a downward trend, with a potential target of $50, and a recommendation to sell on rebounds with resistance at $60.3 and support at $57.0 [5]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks have eased somewhat due to the resumption of US-China trade talks and a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and military confrontations in the Middle East continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, and Powell indicated that there is still a lot of uncertainty, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index that has somewhat suppressed the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [2] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and Trump's tariff policies may push core inflation to 3%, which supports gold's anti-inflation properties and keeps long-term funds interested in gold, providing support for gold prices in the Asian market [2] Group 2 - The spot gold price opened at $3366.20 per ounce in the Asian market, initially rising to a high of $3414.79 before a significant drop to a low of $3320.35, indicating weakened bullish momentum [5] - On the hourly chart, gold has broken below the recent trading range, indicating a bearish direction, with strong downward momentum observed on the 15-minute chart suggesting potential for new lows [5] - The trading strategy for today suggests short positions on rallies with a take-profit target at $3310.00 and a stop-loss based on the 15-minute moving average [5] Group 3 - Silver opened at $32.365, showing a similar pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, with only short-term trading opportunities available on the 5-minute chart [7] - The price has fallen below the 20-period moving average, indicating further weakening of bullish momentum and a bearish outlook [7] - The trading strategy for silver suggests short positions on rallies with a stop-loss based on the moving average and a take-profit target at $32.000 [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised the target values for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 78 points and 4400 points respectively, indicating potential upside of 7% and 15% [1] - Goldman Sachs has maintained a bullish outlook on Chinese assets throughout the year, with the MSCI China Index showing a year-to-date increase of over 12% [1] - The resilience of the Chinese stock market is attributed to factors such as a weaker dollar, strong economic growth, and domestic policy support [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for net southbound capital inflows for the year from $75 billion to $110 billion, driven by capital flowing from the U.S. to China, the growth potential and valuation advantages of H-shares, and the expansion of the investable universe due to new IPOs and "returning" listings [1][2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, has expressed a strong stance on shorting the dollar and going long on gold, citing that risk assets have already priced in much of the optimism [4] - Hatzius estimates a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months, with expectations of increased tariffs in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points, with the first cut now expected in July, a month later than previously anticipated [5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if the White House gains the power to dismiss the chair and FOMC members without just cause, the Fed could become the least independent central bank among developed countries [5]

期货热点追踪 油价上涨，受需求预期支撑，但美联储按兵不动限制涨幅，油价上行能否持久？花旗下调油价预期，市 场将作何反应？ 相关链接 ...

周五公布的美国4月非农就业报告揭开劳动力市场双面图景：新增就业17.7万人远超预期的13万，但前两月累计下 修5.8万；失业率持稳4.2%的同时，薪资年率3.8%低于预期。这份交织着韧性与裂痕的报告，引发金融市场剧烈波 动，黄金急挫8美元，美元飙升20点，美债收益率触及日内低谷。 数据修正暗藏隐忧尽管4月数据表现亮眼，劳工统计局将2月就业人数从11.7万下修至10.2万，3月从22.8万下修至 18.5万，两月累计减少5.8万就业岗位。这种"数据回撤"现象引发市场警惕，显示此前就业市场热度或被高估。 本活动仅限2025年5月1日-5月31日期间新开通的「MT5阿尔法账户类型」参与,账户需完成至少10交易积分 累计,具体兑换流程以客户经理指引为准。 政策博弈暗流涌动美联储5月会议料维持利率不变，但交易员已将年内降息预期调整至四次。惠誉评级美国经济研 究主管Olu Sonola强调："报告展现的'R'是韧性（Resilience）而非衰退（Recession）。"不过其警告，贸易政策可 能成为新的经济拖累。 劳动力蓄水池扩容劳动参与率微升至62.6%，25-54岁核心工作群体参与率创七个月新高，显示更多潜在劳动者 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent dovish trade signals from the Trump administration are reshaping the dollar pricing logic, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a shift in risk asset preferences [1][3] - The dollar index has dropped to 99.65, down 0.25% from the opening price of 99.90, indicating a dual battle of "policy expectation reversal" and "technical resistance" [1] - The Trump administration's shift in attitude towards the Federal Reserve, moving from criticism to a more cooperative stance, is seen as reducing systemic risks related to political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Analysts note that the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve is improving, which is strengthening the Fed's policy independence and raising market expectations for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period [3] - CME interest rate futures indicate that traders have reduced their bets on the number of rate cuts by the Fed this year from 2 times to 1.5 times, suggesting a revaluation of the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The dollar index is at a critical juncture; if it can break through the 100.00 level and stabilize above the downward trend line, it could open an upward channel towards the 101.50-102.00 range [3]

近期黄金外汇市场受多因素影响波动明显。川普拟对海外制作电影征100%关税，加剧贸易战担忧，避 险情绪升温，投资者涌入金市推高金价，贸易政策不确定性也致各类指数波动剧烈。随后因中美贸易谈 判乐观情绪及对美联储政策声明的预期，避险需求降低，金价从高位回落。此前，现货黄金曾触及4月 22日以来最高水平。凌晨美联储维持利率不变影响较小。鉴于国际贸易消息持续影响市场，投资者需密 切关注并调整策略。 周三黄金市场表现疲软，以大阴柱收盘。亚盘时段，黄金短线高开于3438后暴跌70点，随后回调至 3360，并对3350进行测试。日内黄金一直在3400 - 3360区间震荡。凌晨美联储维持利率不变，市场受此 影响较小，但黄金下行趋势有所增强，尾盘收于3364。对于日内行情可关注3350一线的支撑位以及3395 一线的压力位。王召金建议在3390点位做空，目标看向3375 - 3360。 白银行情走势分析： 昨日白银行情以一根下影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线阴包阳；从1 - 4小时级别走 势来看，昨日白银在33.30处受到压制，拉升至33.232上方后便开始回撤，成功回撤至32.22附近，尾盘 收于32.43附近 ...

黄金周三（5月7日）早盘跳空高开在3438附近后直接开始走跌，亚盘最低跌至3360附近后反弹，欧盘前最高上涨至3397/3398区域，随后行情直到收盘一直 维持在3360-3398区间震荡，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 美联储政策：美联储维持利率不变，表示通胀和失业率上升的风险均有所上升，在美联储努力应对特朗普关税政策影响之际，这进一步为经济前景蒙上阴 影。鲍威尔表示，不确定性已经影响了个人和企业的情绪，但经济本身仍然健康，如果经济数据支持，降息是可能的，但在情况更加明朗之前，不能先发制 人地改变政策。 贸易谈判：特朗普政府表示，正在与主要贸易伙伴达成潜在协议，但市场尚未看到谈判取得成果。特朗普在美联储发表声明前不久表示，他不愿意撤回已宣 布的145%关税。 但市场充满不确定性，我们必须保持高度警惕。一旦行情未能延续上涨趋势，转而出现大幅下跌走势，并且有效跌破3222以及3202这两个关键支撑位，那么 此前从3500至3202的下跌走势，或仅仅是A浪调整的一部分，而自3202开始的上涨则属于强B浪反弹。在这种情况下，后市需密切关注C浪的下跌情况。 短周期，昨日早盘黄金价格出现大幅下跌，随后进入震荡整理阶段。 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，Spartan Capital Securities 首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，美联储保持利率不 变，声明措辞似乎在暗示滞胀以及关税的不确定性。总体而言，美联储的政策声明比预期要鹰派。这次 美联储会议的特点是有很多不确定性，并且坚定地决心按兵不动，直到美联储获得更多关于关税对通胀 影响的信息为止。 机构：美联储的政策声明比预期要鹰派 ...