每经编辑｜杜宇 特斯拉涨6.94%，报362.89美元，其市值一夜增加759亿美元（约合人民币5461亿元）。 | -339.340 -- | 03:59 362.840 5 | | --- | --- | | --0-00%- 03:59 362.880 | 296 | | 03:59 362.850 25 17 | | | 541 | 03:59 362.850 | | 800 | 03:59 362.850 | | 191 | 03:59 362.850 | | 870 | 03:59 362.870 | | 314.890 -7.21% | | | 21:30 04:00 | 03:59 362.870 1200 | | 分时量▼ ? 量:8538238 现手:160 额:30:98亿万 03:59362.818 | 148 | | 452 | 03:59 362.865 | | 03:59 362.860 2.35万 | | | 04:00 362.751 2.37万 | | | It if the mode of the model of more and of the below and the ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have created a dramatic market environment, with significant highs and lows impacting investors and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a sharp rise to a historical high followed by a sudden decline, causing losses for many investors and consumers [1]. - On May 21, gold prices rebounded sharply, indicating a volatile market [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, global gold investment demand surged, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching the second-highest record in history [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The volatility in gold prices is primarily driven by changes in market risk sentiment, influenced by uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations and regional conflicts [1]. - As negotiations progressed and tensions eased, market risk sentiment diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][2]. - The relationship between gold prices and the US dollar is significant, with expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve potentially strengthening the dollar and suppressing gold prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that gold prices may enter a phase of high-level fluctuations in the medium to long term, influenced by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, avoiding impulsive decisions in response to market volatility [2].

上周日，美联储主席鲍威尔在普林斯顿大学毕业典礼上发表演讲，称美国大学为"至关重要的国家资 产"，并敦促学生保护民主。 这一表态正值特朗普政府对高等教育发起新一轮攻击之际——禁止哈佛大学招收国际学生，并削减了数 十亿美元的高等教育资金。而鲍威尔与特朗普之间日益加剧的紧张关系可能影响美联储的货币政策独立 性。 特朗普大战鲍威尔 有趣的是，鲍威尔本人也成为特朗普"攻击"的目标。这位在特朗普第一任期内被任命的美联储主席，现 在因未能足够快地降息而受到总统的炮轰。 特朗普称鲍威尔为"迟到先生"和"重大失败者"， 因为美联储今年将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。鲍 威尔和其他美联储官员表示，在确定总统的全球贸易战不会引发新一轮持续的美国通胀之前，他们无法 降低利率。 特朗普国家经济委员会主席Kevin Hassett上个月暗示，政府将"继续研究"在鲍威尔明年5月任期结束前 解雇他的方法。不过特朗普后来表示"无意"解雇这位美联储主席。 敏感时刻，鲍威尔强调大学是重要国家资产 据英国《金融时报》5月26日报道，鲍威尔上周日在普林斯顿大学毕业典礼的演讲中毫不掩饰地为美国 高等教育辩护。 我们在许多方面都领先世界，包括科学创 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields exhibits a "see-saw effect," with rising yields due to long-term U.S. deficit concerns, yet gold prices are strengthening, indicating deep-seated market anxiety about the U.S. dollar's credit system [1] - Despite the upward pressure on gold prices from rising Treasury yields, concerns over inflation and debt default risks are driving gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Gold investment is complex due to its multiple attributes as a commodity, currency, and safe-haven asset; margin trading in the Shanghai gold futures market allows investors to leverage their positions, but this can amplify both gains and losses [3] - As of May 23, 2025, the price difference between London and Shanghai gold indicates a structural opportunity, with a spread of 12.9% requiring real-time monitoring of exchange rates and capital flow policies [3] Group 3: Risk Assessment - Current risks in the gold market can be summarized as three uncertainties: potential hawkish shifts in Federal Reserve policy, U.S. government debt issues leading to reduced safe-haven demand, and decreased physical demand from emerging market central banks [5] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices faced profit-taking pressure after reaching $3,300.80, indicating volatility in high price regions [5] Group 4: Historical Data Comparison - Comparing current gold prices with historical cycles reveals significant differences; the current support logic for gold is more diversified than in 2011, with low opportunity costs for holding gold as indicated by TIPS yields [6] Group 5: Structural Changes in the Market - The development of the Shanghai gold market highlights structural changes, with daily trading volumes increasing from under 50 tons in 2011 to over 300 tons in 2025, reflecting the rise of Asian market pricing power [8] Group 6: Conclusion and Navigation - Investors need a "multi-dimensional compass" to navigate the current gold market, focusing on macro indicators like Federal Reserve decisions and micro signals such as the Shanghai-London price spread [9] - Risk managers should assess the volatility contribution of gold assets in their portfolios to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset [9]

今年5月以来，汇率市场多空博弈态势加剧。以美元兑离岸人民币汇率为例，从4月中上旬的1美元兑7.42元人民币一路震荡下跌。5月21日，美元兑离岸人民 币再度跌破7.2元关口。 在这背后，中美贸易紧张局势缓和、国内释放经济稳增长信号、美联储政策转向预期升温。市场对于中国经济和资产的信心显著提升，支撑人民币汇率的因 素正在积聚。 中美谈判意外破冰，市场迎来"减压时刻" 在全球贸易保护主义阴云笼罩的背景下，5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》一经发布，市场为之振奋。这份声明不仅标志着此次会谈取得了突破 性进展，更被市场视为全球贸易摩擦降温的关键信号。 贸易协议的走向主导着市场情绪并影响着人民币汇率的走势。渣打中国宏观策略主管刘洁就表示，短期美元对人民币有望下行，人民币中间价不排除进一步 调强至7.17-7.18，但未来人民币汇率仍将取决于中国经济状况和贸易谈判进展。 LPR、存款利率同步下调，国内政策支持增强 5月20日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期LPR降至3%，5年期以上LPR降至3.5%，均较上一期下降10个基点，这是今年以来LPR首次下降。 同日，六大国有银行、招商银行等多家银行宣布下调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing significant challenges as prices have fallen below $3,200 per ounce, but some analysts remain optimistic about its future potential in the complex economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, reaching a five-week low due to improved market sentiment following trade negotiations between major economies [3][4]. - The U.S. government's announcement to reduce tariffs on imports from Asian countries within 90 days has led to a shift in investor risk appetite, moving funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets [3][4]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, maintains a bullish outlook on gold despite short-term price fluctuations, citing ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation risks [3][4]. - The dollar index has risen above 100, but its volatility indicates a lack of strong market confidence in the dollar, which could benefit gold prices [4]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year, may create favorable conditions for gold as inflation rises and economic growth slows [4][5]. - There is growing concern among investors about a possible recession in the U.S., which reinforces the demand for gold as a protective asset against economic instability [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The unique protective attributes of gold, such as its role in hedging against high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to continue attracting investors, providing solid support for its price [5][6]. - As uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape persist, gold is anticipated to regain upward momentum, showcasing its significant upside potential [6].

美国财政部长贝森特18日在接受采访时表示，沃尔玛将自行消化部分关税，但他也承认，一部分加征关税的成本最终会 落到消费者头上。贝森特说，他17日与沃尔玛首席执行官董明伦进行了交谈，并在两次新闻节目采访中强调，他认为对 沃尔玛顾客来说真正重要的是汽油价格的下降。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，汽油平均价格约为每加仑3.18美 元，比一年前有所下降，但在过去一周也有所上涨。"沃尔玛将吸收部分关税，有些可能会转嫁给消费者。"贝森特说。 此前，据香港《南华早报》4月29日报道，在中美贸易争端升级而导致货运量锐减后，最近几天，沃尔玛和其他美国主要 零售商已通知中国江浙地区的部分制造商恢复供货。"我们的长期合作伙伴沃尔玛已经通知我们开始（向美国）发货，我 们不需要承担（对中国商品）新关税的额外成本。"4月28日，宁波一家大型文具办公用品出口商的副总裁透露，已收到 沃尔玛的通知，要求它们恢复对美国的正常供货。该公司表示，新进口关税的成本将由美国客户承担。 据智通财经报道，美国零售巨头沃尔玛公司高管15日表示，受美国关税政策影响，该公司将于本月晚些时候开始上调部 分商品在美售价。美国总统特朗普17日批评沃尔玛，在其社交平台T ...

换资前言： 消息面刺激满天飞，利多利空都有。看空的，天天喊着见顶了，一路空到底，看多的，天天喊着牛市， 天天看涨做多。实际上，行情的涨跌本质和短期的消息关系不大，短期的消息也不能影响行情的趋势。 追涨杀跌是人性，而高空低多是本质。没有人可以做到最低点出在最高点，不要相信市场有神话，也不 要听信谣言，别人天天看涨，离场跑路的时候不会带着你，跟着跑，跟不好，就跑丢了。天天看空的， 从去年到今年，套死无数，套住了，只能自己认亏。做投资，还是要建立自己的核心价值观和交易逻 辑。追涨杀跌，左右跟风，只会被主力绞杀，被市场抛弃。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（5月20日），国际金价在美市时段大幅拉升，受美元走软支撑，尽管市场谨慎关注俄乌和平谈判 与美国关税政策的最新进展，避险情绪虽有降温，但不确定性氛围依旧浓烈。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨 1.48%，报每盎司3,277.99美元。美元指数下跌，使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者更具吸引 力。黄金市场今日的主要焦点在于美中贸易关系的乐观预期，以及俄乌停火谈判的希望重新点燃。投资 者似乎大多无视穆迪对美国信用评级的下调。虽然风险偏好上升对金 ...