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格雷厄姆的市场先生假设:理性投资的永恒灯塔
雪球· 2025-05-02 00:05
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: ArthasYe 来源:雪球 在波谲云诡的资本市场中 , 投资者常常被市场的剧烈波动所困扰 。 本杰明 · 格雷厄姆于1949 年提出的 " 市场先生 " 假设 , 如同一盏明灯 , 穿透了情绪迷雾 , 为价值投资奠定了哲学基础 。 这一假设不仅重塑了人们对市场本质的认知 , 更成为沃伦 · 巴菲特等投资大师奉行的圭臬 。 从 理论内核 、 行为逻辑 、 实践策略及现代启示四个维度 , 系统阐述 " 市场先生 " 假设的深远意 义 。 1929年的美股崩盘让格雷厄姆深刻认识到市场的非理性 。 彼时 , 投资者因恐慌抛售资产 , 股 价暴跌至远低于企业实际价值的水平 。 格雷厄姆意识到 , 市场波动并非完全反映企业价值 , 而是群体情绪的放大镜 。 由此 , " 市场先生 " 这一拟人化概念应运而生 。 1. 寓言的核心设定 格雷厄姆将市场拟人化为一位情绪极端的 " 合伙人 " —— 市场先生 。 他每日根据情绪波动报出 不同价格 : 时而亢奋高估资产 , 时而恐慌低估资产 。 例如 , 在乐观时 , 他可能忽略企业基 ...
展佳作 促交流 谋发展(深观察)
第十五届北京国际电影节颁奖典礼现场。 主办方供图 观众在电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》破亿手绘海报展上参观。 新华社记者 李 鑫摄 北京的4月,春意正浓。4月18日至26日,以"新质光影、美美与共"为主题的第十五届北京国际电影节 (以下简称"北影节")成功举办,中外嘉宾和影迷共享了一场文化盛宴。 全民共赏,释放消费潜力 今年是世界电影诞生130年、中国电影诞生120年。电影是大众的艺术,北影节是影迷的节日。本届北影 节遴选近300部来自世界各地的优秀影片,在京津冀地区33家影院放映约900场次,以飨观众。 4月22日18时,记者来到北京英皇电影城三里屯太古里旗舰店,看到不少中外观众正在进场或等候观看 《神女》《女导先驱路漫漫》《哆啦A梦:大熊的绘画奇遇记》等北影节展映影片。据介绍,这家影院 在本届北影节期间共展映60部中外电影。 与往年不同的是,影迷今年看完北影节电影,一定要留好票根。"中国电影消费年"在本届北影节期间启 动,首站活动"北京电影生活节"推出一系列惠民活动:4月18日至5月18日,影迷持票根可在包括北影节 主会场朗园Station在内的全城多个核心商圈、30家商场、约600家商户解锁专属优惠,包括餐饮、 ...
美克国际家居用品股份有限公司2025年第一季度报告
Core Viewpoint - The company, Markor International Home Furnishings Co., Ltd., reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 863.61 million yuan for the fiscal year 2024, with no cash dividends or stock bonuses proposed for distribution, and plans to carry forward the distributable profits to the next year [4]. Company Overview - Markor International Home Furnishings Co., Ltd. is engaged in the production and sales of furniture and home products, operating as an international comprehensive home consumer goods company with multiple brands and channels [5][6]. - The company offers a wide range of products including solid wood furniture, sofas, home decorations, sleep products, and customized cabinets, targeting a diverse customer base seeking high-quality and stylish home solutions [5]. Business Model - The company operates a domestic retail business that provides comprehensive home design solutions, leveraging its integrated design capabilities and global supply chain to meet consumer needs throughout their lifecycle [8][9]. - The retail channels include direct stores and franchise models, employing a multi-brand strategy and an omnichannel approach [9]. Financial Data - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a net loss of 863.61 million yuan, with undistributed profits totaling 694.17 million yuan, of which 457.46 million yuan is available for distribution to shareholders [4]. - The company has accumulated a total of 1.79 million shares repurchased, representing 0.12% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 2.67 million yuan [35]. Important Events - The company held its eighth supervisory board meeting, where the 2024 annual report and internal control evaluation report were approved, reflecting compliance with relevant laws and regulations [17][19]. - A change in accounting policy was announced, aligning with the new guidelines issued by the Ministry of Finance, which is not expected to significantly impact the company's financial status or results [25][29].
国美副院长:AI绘画多是取代低端创作,有利于行业存优去劣
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-04-30 09:15
Core Viewpoint - The development of AI painting technology is seen as a positive force for the art industry, promoting a "survival of the fittest" scenario that encourages artists to innovate and improve their skills [3][4]. Group 1: AI Impact on Art - AI technology primarily replaces low-end creative work, posing a threat to less skilled practitioners who rely on repetitive or derivative methods [3]. - The proliferation of AI in art is expected to lead to a reshaping of the industry, stimulating artists to push their boundaries and enhance their creativity [3][4]. Group 2: Ethical Considerations - The emphasis on AI's role in various industries raises ethical concerns, particularly in the arts, where it may lead to a loss of critical thinking and personal expression [3][4]. - The concept of "artistic intelligence" is proposed as a counterbalance to artificial intelligence, highlighting the importance of maintaining personal artistic expression and critical engagement with technology [4]. Group 3: Digital Culture Industry Growth - The digital culture industry in China is expanding rapidly, with projected revenues reaching 4.16 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [4]. - There are concerns about potential issues such as "over-entertainment" and the misuse of cultural symbols in the commercialization of digital cultural products [4].
“国际范儿”赋能文商旅展 “BBD第三届菩提花开文化艺术节”启幕
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-04-30 05:41
Core Viewpoint - The "BBD Third Bodhi Blossom Cultural and Arts Festival" has opened in the transformed village of Banbidian, Chaoyang District, Beijing, showcasing a blend of culture, art, and business, and aims to enhance regional development and international cooperation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The festival runs from April 29 to May 5, featuring over 300-year-old Bodhi trees in full bloom [1]. - The theme of the festival is "Bodhi Blossoms, the Place Where Dreams Begin," paying tribute to various dreams including the Chinese Dream and the entrepreneurial spirit [3]. Group 2: Cultural and Economic Integration - The event promotes a "cultural + art + business" integration model, utilizing both immersive experiences within the park and outdoor market economies [3]. - The festival aims to create a consumption ecosystem with diverse business formats, enhancing local economic activity [3]. Group 3: International Collaboration - The Chaoyang District Investment Promotion Service Center plays a crucial role in facilitating international cooperation, leveraging its connections with foreign embassies and international organizations [4]. - The festival features international products from countries like Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran, allowing local residents to experience diverse cultures [4][5]. Group 4: Local Development and Community Engagement - The festival is part of a broader strategy to stimulate local economic growth and attract entrepreneurs to the area, which is positioned as a core functional zone for the CBD [3][4]. - The event is expected to enrich the cultural life of residents and support the development of a "Five Suitable" Chaoyang (suitable for living, working, doing business, studying, and tourism) [5].
北京发布艺术类高招实施办法
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-04-30 03:26
央视网消息:据"首都教育"公众号消息,4月28日,北京教育考试院发布了2025年普通高等学校艺术类 专业招生工作实施办法,明确报考高校艺术类专业考试的考生须参加高考文化课考试和艺术类专业考 试。艺术类专业考试分为艺术类统考、戏曲类联考、艺术类校考3类。 一、报名和考试 报考高校艺术类专业考试的考生,须参加北京市2025年普通高等学校招生报名。报名时须在高考报名系 统选报艺术类专业全市统一考试(以下简称艺术类统考)相应科类或戏曲类专业全国省际联考(以下简 称戏曲类联考)。 (一)高考文化课考试 高考文化课考试,即北京市2025年普通高等学校招生考试,考生须按全市统一要求参加考试。 (二)艺术类专业考试 1.艺术类统考 北京市全面实施美术与设计类、音乐类、舞蹈类、播音与主持类、表(导)演类、书法类等艺术类统 考。 艺术类统考由北京教育考试院统一组织。 美术与设计类由各区考试中心承办 音乐类由中央民族大学承办 舞蹈类由北京舞蹈学院承办 播音与主持类由中国传媒大学承办 表(导)演类由北京电影学院和北京服装学院承办 书法类由首都师范大学承办 艺术类统考报名与高考报名同时进行,考生须在高考报名系统上选报相应的艺术类统考考 ...
折纸结构陶瓷“弯而不断”
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-29 23:56
实验结果显示,这种经过聚合物涂层处理的陶瓷结构,在不同方向施加压力时表现出优异的抗压能力和 弹性恢复能力。相比之下,没有涂层的传统陶瓷则在相同条件下迅速开裂或断裂。团队还在静态与循环 压缩条件下对这些结构进行了系统测试,并结合计算机模拟验证了其实验结果。数据显示,涂层结构在 陶瓷原本最脆弱的方向上展现出显著增强的韧性。 团队指出,折纸不仅是视觉艺术的一种形式,更是一种极具潜力的功能性设计工具。它为解决生物医学 和工程领域的材料挑战提供了全新思路。这项研究展示出如何通过巧妙的结构设计,在本质上脆弱的材 料中引入灵活、强韧的新特性。未来,这类结构有望应用于更多高性能材料的研发,推动医疗设备、智 能机器人及航天器材的创新发展。 (文章来源:科技日报) 美国休斯敦大学团队将古代折纸艺术的设计理念与现代材料科学相结合,开发出一种新型陶瓷结构。这 种结构在压力下虽然弯曲但不会断裂,展现出前所未有的柔韧性和强度。这项技术为轻质、高强度材料 的应用开辟了新路径,有望在医疗假肢、航空航天以及机器人等对抗冲击性能要求较高的领域发挥重要 作用。相关研究成果发表于新一期《先进复合材料和混合材料》期刊。 传统陶瓷因其高硬度和耐热性被广 ...
了不起的古建筑丨中岳庙:河南现存规格最高的古建筑群
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-04-29 23:52
农历三月中岳庙古庙会举行,面向全国游客免票开放一个月的优惠活动,吸引了国内外大批游客。 俯瞰中岳庙建筑群。 "庙"遇上"会",就热闹起来。 4月23日,在河南省古代建筑保护研究所(现河南省文物建筑保护研究院)原所长、二级研究员杜启明的带领 下,记者沿中轴线拾级而上,迎面而来的牌坊、楼台亭阁、古柏、碑刻一点一滴地述说着中岳庙的过去。 五岳建筑此最全 每一次到中岳庙,都感叹其中轴线的绵长,能完整走下来的次数极为有限。 杜启明介绍,中岳庙的轴线设计是中国五岳祠庙中最长的。今天的中岳庙,仅指其核心区即建筑部分,自汉 代石阙起至黄盖峰重檐八角琉璃亭止,南北轴线达1.5公里。而以庙制为例,其山水形胜之轴,自中岳庙南的 箕山,经中岳庙至庙北嵩顶峻极峰,南北轴线达20公里左右,其间层峦叠嶂,蔚为天下之大观。 尤其值得注意的是,这一轴线正与中国古代"地中之轴"——洛阳至告成古观星台重合。 中岳庙原来的建筑大部分毁于明末的大火,现存的文物建筑多为清代乾隆年间钦颁所建。仿清官式建筑,沿 中轴线布置,庙宇共7进11重建筑。自南而北,中轴线上建有太室阙、名山第一坊、遥参亭、天中阁、配天作 镇坊、崇圣门、化三门、峻极门、嵩高峻极坊、拜台 ...
北影节,与中国电影一同成长(文化市场新观察)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-04-29 22:31
Core Insights - The 15th Beijing International Film Festival (BJIFF) concluded on April 26, celebrating the 130th anniversary of world cinema and the 120th anniversary of Chinese cinema, showcasing a blend of tradition and modernity in film [2][10] - The festival has become a significant platform for international exchange and cultural interaction, reflecting its growing global influence [3][10] International Influence - The "Tiantan Award" competition unit received 1,794 film submissions from 103 countries and regions, with foreign entries accounting for nearly 90% [3] - The festival featured over 300 domestic and international film companies, focusing on the internationalization of Chinese cinema and its opportunities in the global market [3] Future Focus - The "Looking to the Future" section received over 500 film submissions from nearly 90 countries, aiming to discover new talent and promote cultural exchange among young filmmakers [4] - Switzerland was invited as the guest country, celebrating 75 years of diplomatic relations with China, enhancing cultural interactions through film screenings and discussions [4] Innovation and Development - The BJIFF hosted a forum on the high-quality development of Chinese cinema, revealing that Beijing is responsible for 25% of the national film projects, with local films making up 40% of the top ten box office hits [5] - The integration of artificial intelligence in film creation was a key focus, with over 1,500 submissions from 33 countries, indicating a significant increase in interest and participation [6] Youth Engagement - The festival introduced initiatives to support young filmmakers, including mentorship programs and funding for short films, fostering new talent in the industry [7] Cultural Accessibility - The festival featured 18 special screening units, attracting over 190,000 viewers across 34 theaters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, highlighting the public's enthusiasm for cinema [8] - The Beijing Film Life Festival attracted 30.77 million visitors and generated 11.05 billion yuan in consumer spending, showcasing the economic impact of film-related activities [9]
摩洛哥民众感受中文之美
人民网-国际频道 原创稿· 2025-04-29 02:10
Core Viewpoint - The event "Lanting·Yaji" organized by the Rabat Chinese Cultural Center and the Mohammed VI Foundation showcased Chinese culture and calligraphy, attracting over 90 local participants through various engaging activities [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured a screening of the Chinese animated film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child," which captivated young audiences with its compelling story and beautiful visuals [1]. - A Chinese language teacher from Mohammed VI Polytechnic University provided insights into the history of Chinese language development, discussing the evolution from pictographs to modern Chinese and comparing it with Arabic [1]. Group 2: Interactive Activities - An interactive quiz on the evolution of pictographs allowed participants to learn about the origins of Chinese characters, tracing their development from oracle bone script to seal script and clerical script [2]. - Participants engaged in a calligraphy workshop, where they enthusiastically tried writing Chinese characters with brushes, expressing their enjoyment of the experience [2]. Group 3: Cultural Elements - The event venue was decorated with Chinese elements, showcasing multiple calligraphy works and featuring a wall for participants to write their favorite Chinese characters, which attracted many attendees for photos [6].