亚太早盘，日本日经225指数上涨0.36%，东证指数上涨0.31%。韩国Kospi综合指数上涨了0.44%，小盘股Kosdaq 指数上涨0.19%。 美国总统特朗普的关税达摩克利斯之剑再度高悬于全球各经济体和市场之上。据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普7日 表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 今日亚太各主要股指对此反应相对平淡，仍整体维持涨势，但汇率纷纷走低。隔夜美股美债再度遭遇抛售，美元 近期反弹但仍被看空，避险情绪重燃促金价V型反转。 富时新加坡海峡指数开盘涨0.18%，报4039.06点。 日本长债收益率延续昨日涨势，30年期日债收益率涨6个基点至3.025%，20年期日债收益率涨5个基点至2.475%。 香港恒生指数开盘涨0.17%报23927.53点，恒生科技指数涨0.28%，恒生中国企业指数涨0.22%。上证指数同样高开 0.04%，创业板指跌0.03%。先进封装、存储器、半导体、电力题材走强；光伏玻璃、CPO、金融科技、中船系、 算力概念股走弱。 对于特朗普加征关税威胁，日本内阁官房长官林芳正表示，日本和美国正在进行关税谈判但尚未达成协议；将竭 ...

特朗普还宣布对马来西亚征收25%的关税，老挝和缅甸则将面临40%的关税。其他被征收关税的国家包 括印度尼西亚(32%)、孟加拉国(35%)以及泰国和柬埔寨(36%)。 美国Axios新闻网称，美国总统特朗普周一发出关税信，对主要盟友征收25%的关税。 Axios指出，经过数月的威胁，特朗普突然再次升级贸易战。对于那些渴望确定性、经历了一段相对平 静时期的企业来说，此举可能会再次打破这种平衡。这也给基本上已经进入后关税时代的金融市场注入 了新的风险。 【技术分析】 黄金日线周一收阳，十字星后很可能就会破位日线布林中轨的压制，那么，多头就能形成单边走势，到 时候就难以形成调整了，上方就可以看到3400，3430高点，因此，黄金的多头表现很明确，但在日线还 差一个布林中轨的破位。H4中期的技术形态低位三连阳，布林收口，站稳在布林中轨之上是绝对的强 势，金价继续上涨上方就看3365附近，3365是上周的高点，这个点位破位布林拉开，本周就有可能形成 大涨空间看到3400，3430。所以，周一，周二，周三黄金行情还是看涨，但要等待调整做多，看涨先关 注3365的得失。 周二（7月8日）亚洲时段，现货黄金维持窄幅震荡，目前 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently stabilizing above the $3,330 mark, following a fluctuation where prices initially fell and then rose due to increased safe-haven demand triggered by U.S. tariffs on Japan and South Korea [1] - The U.S. is set to impose higher tariffs on multiple countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate, effective August 1 [2] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with current resistance levels at $3,350, $3,360, and $3,380, while support levels are at $3,300, $3,280, and $3,260 [3] Group 2 - The short-term trend for gold is likely to remain weak, with the price facing pressure around the $3,340 level, suggesting potential adjustments in the near term [3] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the strong U.S. dollar, which is limiting the extent of gold price rebounds despite rising geopolitical tensions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries has heightened global market volatility and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3] - The tariffs range from 25% to 40%, which has raised concerns about the fragile global economic recovery and intensified market fears of a recession [2][3] - Despite the surge in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, the immediate reaction in gold prices was volatile, influenced by a stronger dollar and pre-existing market expectations regarding Trump's policies [2][3] Group 2 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade frictions are reshaping global supply chains, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment [3] - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for eight consecutive months, indicating a trend towards "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system [3] - Technical analysis of gold prices shows a range-bound movement, with key resistance levels at 3350 and 3360, and support levels at 3330 and 3320, suggesting a cautious trading environment [4]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】欧佩克+的八个产油国在8月3日继续举行会 议，以审查市场状况、合规情况和补偿事宜。依据列表，8月份 沙特阿拉伯原油日产量可以达到975.6万桶；俄罗斯原油日产量 可以达到934.4万桶。伊拉克原油日产量可以达到417.1万桶， 阿联酋原油日产量可以达到327.2万桶；科威特原油日产量可以 达到251.8万桶；哈萨克斯坦原油日产量可以达到153.2万桶。 评：OPEC+维持增产的立场不变。短期原油低库存，消费旺季， 成品油开工和加工利润尚可。中期重点关注6-8月期间OPEC+实 际产量落实情况。短期震荡，中期等待沽空时机成熟。适度提 防地缘演化。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多个 国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的 关税税率威胁。其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚和突 尼斯面临25%的关税税率，南非、波斯尼亚税率为30%，印尼税 率为32%，孟加拉国和塞尔维亚为35%，泰国和柬埔寨税率为 36%，老挝和缅甸税率为40%。上述关税将于8月1日生效。评： 关税扰动再起，避险情绪对贵金属或有一定支撑，但是本次关 税扰动或较弱，市场关 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 8 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国国会通过规模达 3.4 万亿美元的大美丽法案削弱美国经济衰退预期，美 国 6 月份新增非农就业高于市场预期且失业率意外下降，上述两则消息抑制美联 储降息预期、推高美元指数并打压贵金属价格，7 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金回调至 3305 美元/盎司附近，短期可能继续偏弱运行。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组 进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线 上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思维依托上涨趋势线以中低仓位 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have rebounded, with the gold ETF (518800) rising by 0.66%, and a net inflow of over 550 million yuan in the past 10 days, bringing its current scale to over 18.5 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] - The U.S. government has announced new unilateral tariff rates, with expectations that these tariffs will take effect on August 1, leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The "Too Big to Fail" legislation has been signed, which is expected to significantly increase U.S. debt levels and weaken the dollar's credit, potentially supporting precious metal valuations [1] Group 2 - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - A survey indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant rise from 29% last year, marking a historical high in the past eight years [2] - Long-term expectations show that 76% of central banks anticipate an increase in the proportion of gold holdings in their reserves over the next five years, up from 69% last year, indicating a growing demand for gold in a diversified international reserve system [2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements and offers T+0 trading, making it a more convenient and liquid option compared to purchasing physical gold [3] - The ETF primarily invests in gold spot contracts, with expected risk-return levels similar to gold assets, differing from stock, mixed, bond, and money market funds [3]

不同销售渠道的金价差异巨大，投资者需仔细甄别。 银行金条：民生银行、农业银行、平安银行等机构今日金条报价分别为790.45元/克、790.30元/克和788.20元/克，普遍高于大盘价约18元/克。 这主要是因为 银行金条包含品牌溢价、正规回购渠道及制作工艺等隐性成本，适合追求长期储值或送礼的投资者。但若以投资获利为目的，则需仔细权衡溢价是否合理。 黄金投资指南：2025年7月6日金价波动分析及投资策略 今日金价剧烈波动，国际金价更是创下近三个月新高，引发市场热议。许多投资者纷纷询问：是时候出手黄金了吗？本文将深入分析今日金价走势，并结合 不同渠道的金价差异，为您的投资决策提供参考。 国际金价飙升，创近三月新高 国际金价今日表现抢眼，纽约期金价格暴涨至3347.35美元/盎司，单日涨幅高达4.45%；伦敦现货金更是突破至3336.93美元/盎司，单日涨幅惊人地达到 11.06%，创下近三个月最大单日涨幅。 这波强劲上涨主要源于美联储降息预期升温以及美元走弱，导致全球资金涌入黄金市场寻求避险，从而推高了国际 金价。 换算成人民币，国际金价约为768.73元/克，较昨日上涨2.55%。 对于现货黄金及纸黄金投资者 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating trade tensions due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which are causing significant market volatility and impacting global financial markets [1][3]. - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025, as part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances [3]. - Additional tariffs will be applied to various countries, including 25% on Kazakhstan and Malaysia, 30% on South Africa, and 40% on Laos and Myanmar, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade policy [3]. Group 2 - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [4]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, international gold prices surged over 2%, reaching $3,360 per ounce, reflecting heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [4]. - The performance of the gold market contrasts sharply with the decline in global stock markets, where major U.S. indices fell significantly due to concerns over tariff policies [4].

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy has triggered increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets and a subsequent rebound in gold prices [3] - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, indicating a strategic emphasis on gold as a long-term asset [3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely monitored, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, influenced by inflation concerns [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a rebound after a dip, indicating relative strength and potential for further upward movement if it breaks through resistance at 3365/3366 [4] - The four-hour chart suggests that gold is in a corrective phase, with the potential for a third wave of upward movement if it holds above the support level of 3296 [6] - Key support levels to watch include 3321 and 3315, while resistance levels are identified at 3365/3366 and 3374 [6]