报告导读： 4月，虽然外部不确定性提升，但在政策承托下国内经济仍有韧性。 4 月，经济在外部冲击下仍有韧性。关税变化使得外需短期有一定回落，不过国内需求在政策支撑下仍有 一定韧性。 生产、消费增速虽较前月有所回落，但仍保持较高增速，其中新兴行业生产、政策利好型消费 均有亮眼表现。投资方面虽然各项增速均有回落，但基建和制造业投资增速也保持较高水平。 下一阶段，外需扰动或有减弱，内需有待政策继续发力。 5 月关税局势缓和后，外需短期有一定回升，这 对国内生产、投资等有一定利好。内需方面，我们期待消费和地产相关政策继续加码扩围，对内需形成更 强支撑。 风险提示： 外部需求不确定性加剧。 文章来源 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律 ...

风险提示：经济出现下滑，行业业务量增速明显放缓，价格战明显扩大。 行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 快递行业 2025 年 4 月数据点评 4 月行业件量增速 19.1%，顺丰"激活经营" 推荐（维持） 策略下 30%增速继续领跑 快递 2025 年 05 月 20 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) ...

Core Insights - The release of typical cases for ecological restoration in Beijing highlights the city's commitment to sustainable development and environmental improvement [1][2][3] Group 1: Ecological Restoration Cases - A total of 16 ecological restoration cases have been published, covering 10 administrative districts with a total investment exceeding 10 billion yuan and an area of over 23,000 hectares [2] - The cases include various projects such as the ecological restoration of abandoned mines, river rehabilitation, and the transformation of industrial areas into green spaces [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Insights - The ecological restoration efforts are seen as a catalyst for high-quality development, emphasizing the integration of ecology into urban planning rather than merely as an aesthetic addition [3][4] - Future strategies should focus on a three-pronged approach of ecological priority, technological empowerment, and innovative mechanisms to enhance urban resilience and sustainability [3][4]

Core Insights - The total value of the top 100 global brands reached $10.7 trillion in 2025, marking a 29% year-on-year increase, the highest in history [1] - Chinese brands have doubled in value over the past 20 years, now accounting for 6% of the total value of the top 100 brands, with a 26% increase from the previous year, ranking second globally in growth rate [1] - European brands have significantly declined, now representing only 7% of the total value, down from 26% in 2006 [1] Industry Trends - The retail sector continued its growth trend from 2022, with an overall brand value increase of 48%, driven by e-commerce and private labels [3] - In contrast, brand value growth in categories like apparel, food and beverage, and personal care has stagnated or declined, although brands like Uniqlo, Coca-Cola, and Dove have outperformed the industry average [3] - The alcoholic beverage sector is facing challenges from younger consumers opting for lower-cost options, while the rise of health-conscious trends is boosting the growth of low or non-alcoholic drinks [3] - The luxury goods sector, one of the few industries to maintain growth since 2020, saw a 2% decline in 2025, partly due to a shift in consumer preference from status-symbol products to lifestyle experience consumption [3]

Group 1 - The overall economic data for April shows stronger-than-expected industrial growth, moderate recovery in consumption, and differentiated investment structure, indicating resilience under external shocks. Emerging industries are expanding rapidly, suggesting a long-term positive trend for the A-share market, with recommendations to consider low-cost entries in broad-based ETFs like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) and defensive ETFs like the cash flow ETF (159399) during market fluctuations [1] - Following the easing of tariff conflicts, domestic economic data is expected to improve further under "more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies." The steel sector, with a low valuation (CSI Steel Index PB value at 0.94), may show some elasticity if favorable economic policies are introduced, making the steel ETF (515210) worth monitoring [1] - Recent high-level corrections in gold prices are attributed to a decline in risk aversion. The backdrop of monetary overexpansion and fiscal deficit monetization challenges the dollar credit system. The global trend of "de-dollarization" positions gold as a potential new pricing anchor, suggesting that precious metals may have upward momentum. Investors are encouraged to consider gradual investments in gold fund ETFs (518800) and their linked funds during price corrections [1] Group 2 - The military industry should respond to national demands and adapt to contemporary requirements by expanding beyond traditional military operations to include new domains and emerging non-traditional military sectors, forming a new industry system. As the centenary of the military approaches and the tasks of the "14th Five-Year Plan" need to be fulfilled, the sector's orders and performance are expected to continue to materialize, with a focus on the military ETF (512660) [2]

从国内需求看，消费品以旧换新相关商品销售大幅增长，对社会消费品零售总额的增长和支撑作用比较 明显。其中，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长38.8%，今年以来持续提速增 长。投资方面，"两重""两新"政策效应持续显现，投资规模持续扩大。在大规模设备更新接续推动带动 下，1～4月份设备工器具购置投资同比增长18.2%，对全部投资增长的贡献率达64.5%。 此前公布的外贸进出口数据则表明，尽管国际环境急剧变化，外部冲击影响加大，我国仍在加大外贸多 元化发展，积极开拓与共建"一带一路"国家贸易，推动外贸保持平稳增长。1～4月份，我国货物进出口 总额同比增长2.4%，比一季度加快1.1个百分点。 北京师范大学教授万喆对记者表示，4月份，我国经济在复杂的国际环境中，尤其是在关税战持续升级 的背景下，部分核心经济指标呈现稳中有进的运行态势，展现了经济韧性。同时，已经公布的4月份数 据还体现了我国经济在挑战中持续培育新的动能。 国家统计局数据显示，4月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长10%，其中，航空航天相关设备 制造、集成电路制造增加值分别增长21.4%和21.3%。同期，规模以上数字产品制造业增加 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：美国消费者屡次展现出韧性。 ...

这几年 "经济周期"经常被人提起，很多人完整经历过了市场的扩张期和收缩期后，切身体会到其中的冷 暖，对周期的感受就更加强烈。 一家企业在成长过程中的关键在于能否正确应对周期变化。周期可以分为偏外部的经济周期和偏内部的 企业生命周期。 周期像浪潮，考验着企业的韧性，也考验作为 "船长"的企业管理者的掌舵能力。 前段时间 ， 易点云 CEO、混沌学园一期学员纪鹏程 就跟混沌君 聊到 了周期的 话题 。 他认为，受周期影响最大的是人的心态。企业要想穿越周期，首先是创始人要有使命感，进而通过 "育 人"影响企业里非常核心的一群人，他们有长期主义精神，心态足以跨越周期，这样团队整体上就能稳 住，再进行组织调整，选出更多有使命、愿景的人。这样最终打造出的"高韧性组织"，自然就能穿越周 期。 易点云作为港股上市、中国最大的办公 IT综合解决方案供应商，在经济下行周期中实现了逆势增长，去 年营收13.57亿元，较上年增长6.8%，经调整净利润8016.9万元，较上年增长427%，活跃客户数、在 服务设备数量分别增长9.1%、14.1%。在经济寒冬中，其业绩实现了令人振奋的逆周期增长。 今年是 易点云 成立的第十年，算是完整经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape in 2025 is characterized by unprecedented complexity, with market volatility and structural opportunities intertwined, necessitating a unique analytical framework for investors [1] Market Trends - The gold market is experiencing a "stair-step ascent," where prices are not rising linearly but are breaking through key resistance levels in a staggered manner, driven by three main forces: central banks' long-term gold accumulation strategy, inflation expectations, and geopolitical conflicts triggering safe-haven demand [2][4] Analytical Framework - Velos Markets employs a multi-dimensional analysis framework that integrates macroeconomic, industry dynamics, and micro trading data, likened to a "CT scanner" for financial markets, allowing for the identification of upstream drivers of market movements [5] Investment Strategies - Velos Markets offers three core investment strategies tailored to different risk appetites: "volatility-hedging" portfolios focusing on gold ETFs and TIPS, "trend-enhancing" strategies utilizing machine learning for asset rotation, and "macro-hedging" arbitrage based on geopolitical indicators [6] Global Perspective - The research team categorizes global markets into three "gravity circles": the dollar liquidity circle, regional industrial chains, and emerging currency alliances, helping investors avoid single-market pitfalls and identify alternative opportunities [8] Risk Management - Velos Markets utilizes a stress-testing matrix to quantify the probabilities of various market scenarios, incorporating ESG resilience scores to filter asset pools, demonstrating that high-scoring portfolios have lower drawdowns during climate-related events [10]

央视网消息：4月份经济数据释放了哪些信号？下一步，巩固我国经济平稳运行的发力点有哪些？北京师范大学教授、经济学专家万 喆就此进行了解读。 经济韧性与结构性突破并存 外贸韧性凸显 结构持续优化 4月，中国经济在复杂的国际环境中展现出显著的韧性，尤其是在关税战持续升级的背景下，多项核心的指标呈现积极的变化，韧性 与结构性的突破是并存的。 内需逐步恢复和消费结构升级趋势 首先是消费回暖和服务消费的升级。消费稳步回升，内需的潜力也在不断的释放，像食品价格等受各种因素的影响也在回升。而 且，出行服务像飞机票旅游和黄金饰品等高端消费价格也在上涨，反映出内需逐步恢复及消费结构升级的趋势。 同时，线下消费热度应该说也是不断的增长，休闲娱乐、餐饮等服务业消费的增速非常的亮眼。入境消费的热度也创了新高，像免 签和支付便利化政策，推动国际航班的班次增长，各地入境人数都是屡创新高，也显示中国消费市场对全球吸引力在增强。 工业增长韧性凸显 高技术产业起引领作用 4月份，社会消费品零售总额应该说同比增长也非常的明显，尤其是当中通信器材家电升级类的商品增速都超过了19%，家电网络零 售额同比增长也超过了13%，绿色化智能化产品成为消费的趋 ...