图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（7月7日至7月11日）A股再现普涨行情。全周小盘股显著占优，微盘股周涨幅接近 3%，位列主要宽基榜首位。中证2000、中证 1000、中证 500等中小盘股指数同步跑赢大盘股指数。周 初，量化交易新规落地引发资金密切关注，而从成交额变动及涨跌幅变化看，市场正逐步适应新规，资 金也转向基本面验证更清晰的标的。全周科技创新、高端制造与海工装备等领域中报预期向好，带动创 业板指数及万得双创指数走强，而反观沪深300及中证红利，相对表现平稳，市场风险偏好回升下资金 从防御性板块撤离迹象有所体现。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均涨幅接近2%，各行业指数轮动上涨，百大概念指数上涨比例92%。板块 方面，房地产、钢铁、非银金融相对表现良好，分别上涨6.12%、4.41%、3.96%，银行周五大幅下挫， 全周下跌约1%，煤炭亦走弱超过1%。 基金发行： 上周合计发行26只，其中股票型基金发行13只，混合型基金发行4只，债券型基金发行8 只， FOF型基金发行1只，总发行份额248.19亿份。 基金表现 ： 上周万得全基指数上涨0.54%。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数上涨0.88%，万得偏 ...

报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 欧洲股市领涨，日债收益率上行。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨跌互现，欧洲主要股市普遍上涨，英国 富时 100 、德国 DAX 和法国 CAC 分别上涨 1.3% 、 2% 、 1.7% 。而美股三大指数中，标普 500 较上周 持平，道琼斯工业下跌 0.4% ，纳达克综指上涨 0.1% 。债市方面，本周主要国债收益率多数上行， 10 年 期美债收益率波动较小，与上周持平；日本因参议院选举临近，市场担忧将面临更大的财政支出，长期债 券收益率上升，日本 10 年国债收益率上行 16bp 。商品方面，本周黄金和原油价格均有回落。汇率方面， 多数货币相对美元小幅贬值，美元指数回升 0.9% 。 | 全球股市 | 周 涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp) | 月 涨跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 美元指 ...

Group 1 - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasized that two rate cuts this year remain the most likely choice for the Fed, as the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices may be milder than expected [1][3] - Daly noted that many companies are actively sharing the burden of tariff costs through supply chain negotiations rather than passing the costs directly to consumers, which could prevent significant inflation spikes [3] - The internal consensus at the Fed is not aligned, with most officials worried about persistent inflation pressures from tariffs, while a minority believes it is a one-time price disturbance [3][5] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Bullard expressed caution, stating that the effects of tariffs are still uncertain and may take time to permeate the economy, with key data from June to September being critical for observation [5] - Market anxiety is rising due to policy ambiguity, with traders indicating that clarity on the final scope of tariffs before their implementation on August 1 is unlikely, making a July rate cut nearly impossible [5][6] - The Fed's rate strategy is becoming more complex as the observation period highlighted by Bullard coincides with the new tariff list being considered by Trump [6]

（Asserting independence: Optimal monetary policy when the central bank and political authority disagree） 01 研究背景 美国总统特朗普在其第一任期的最后两年中多次公开批评美联储的货币政策立场，呼吁降低联邦基金利 率。例如，他在2019年8月19日表示："联邦基金利率应在较短时间内至少下调100个基点，同时可能辅 以量化宽松。如果如此，我们的经济将会更好。"在另一个例子中，2018年10月10日，特朗普向媒体表 示："我认为美联储在犯错。他们的政策过于紧缩。我认为美联储已经疯了。"虽然特朗普的言论尤为直 接，但美国总统公开对美联储施加压力并非新鲜事，这种情形在杜鲁门、约翰逊和尼克松政府时期亦有 发生。近年，对美联储的政治压力仍在持续。例如，参议员乔·曼钦曾在2021年8月5日公开致信主席鲍 威尔，敦促联邦公开市场委员会"立即重新评估我国的货币政策立场"；参议员兰德·保罗于2021年3月重 新提交了《联邦储备透明法案》（即"审计美联储"法案）。 尽管美联储在设计上意图避免政治干预，例如理事任期为14年、经费来 ...

从中期来看，原油市场供需格局调整将主导价格走势。EIA预测，2025年底布伦特原油价格或降至61美 元/桶，2026年进一步下探至59美元/桶，主要基于全球石油库存上升及OPEC+增产的压制。6月 OPEC+会议确认加速推进增产计划，预计9月前完成原定一年半的220万桶/日增产目标，供应宽松预期 持续强化。 需求端则呈现结构性分化。美国夏季出行旺季提振汽油及航空煤油消费，商业原油库存超预期去化；中 国则因汽柴油库存低位、高温及自驾游需求上升，支撑汽油消费稳中向好。然而，一德期货指出，全球 炼厂利润收缩及欧美汽柴油需求峰值已现，边际走弱风险逐渐显现。此外，美联储降息预期升温或短期 提振风险偏好，但难以扭转原油中长期过剩趋势。 综合来看，2025年三季度布伦特油价或围绕60美元/桶震荡，地缘风险反复与OPEC+增产节奏成为关键 变量。若中东局势彻底降温，旺季结束后油价中枢或进一步下探至60美元以下，回归基本面主导的偏空 逻辑。 来源:金融界 近期国际原油市场波动加剧，地缘政治风险与供需基本面博弈成为核心矛盾。2025年6月，中东局势动 荡主导油价先扬后抑，而机构普遍认为，随着伊以停火协议达成及OPEC+增产推进， ...

智通财经APP获悉，美银全球研究7月10日发表《流动性洞察：2025 年中期美元时区回顾》指出，预期 美元指数在今年剩余时间将在 97 左右波动，接近当前的现货价格水平。尽管美元可能会跌破该行预 测，但当前宏观动态的延续表明， 2025 年下半年美元的下行空间有限。 核心观点 时区框架表明，2025 年下半年美元下行空间有限。2025 年美联储不降息将对美国交易时段的美元形成 适度支撑。 经过多年的累计回报大幅回吐至持平后，亚洲时段的美元抛售势头减弱。 美元在欧洲时段仍有走弱空间，但需要全球其他地区股市持续跑赢美国股市，对冲比率的看空倾向有所 降低。 不同时区的美元年初至今走势 2025 年上半年，美元经历了自 1973 年以来最糟糕的年初表现(见报告《资金流向》，2025 年 7 月 3 日)。尽管以美元指数为代表的美元在所有时区均出现净下跌(见今日图表)，但实际日内表现更为复杂。 值得注意的是，美元兑日元在美国时段升值，而美元兑加元在欧洲交易时段升值(表 1)。 欧洲时段和亚洲时段的走势推动了大多数货币对的整体外汇波动，而澳元兑美元和美元兑加元是例外， 美国时段的回报继续对其产生强烈影响(表 2)。 来源 ...

Market Performance - On July 11, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.63%, Nasdaq down 0.22%, and S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - Large tech stocks performed better than the overall market, with Nvidia rising 0.48% to a new all-time high, and Google, Amazon, and Tesla all increasing by over 1% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Google (Alphabet) at $181.26 (+1.43%), Amazon at $224.99 (+1.23%), and Tesla at $313.50 (+1.17%), while Facebook (Meta Platforms) fell by 1.32% [3] - Among Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.43%, with Baidu down over 1% and BYD ADR down 1% [3][4] Commodity Prices - Gold, silver, and crude oil prices increased, with silver rising over 3.7% to a peak of $38.41 per ounce, the highest level since September 2011, and year-to-date silver has gained over 32%, outpacing gold [4][5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The recent U.S. tariff threats have raised concerns about rising consumer prices, with President Trump announcing a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil starting August 1 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that high tariffs on Brazilian goods will increase living costs for U.S. consumers [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials indicated that the new tariff threats could delay interest rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating that the tariffs complicate the inflation outlook [7] - Goolsbee emphasized the need for clearer information before making decisions on interest rates, despite political pressures [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing external uncertainties by focusing on domestic initiatives, such as promoting innovation, stabilizing consumption, and enhancing the unified market [1] - The adjustment of basic pensions, effective from January 1, 2025, aims to increase the average monthly pension for retirees by 2%, with a focus on those with lower pension levels [1][2] - The adjustment method combines fixed increases, linkage adjustments, and appropriate tilting towards lower pension groups, ensuring that not all retirees receive the same percentage increase [1] Group 2 - The pension policy adjustment reflects a new approach to promoting consumption and ensuring social equity, shifting from solely focusing on investment to enhancing consumption, particularly for low-income groups [2] - The State Council's recent notice on employment support policies aims to reduce burdens on businesses while promoting job stability, with measures such as expanding special loans and increasing unemployment insurance [2][3] - The employment support initiatives specifically target vulnerable groups, including young unemployed individuals and those facing long-term unemployment, to enhance their job security and basic consumption [3][4] Group 3 - The overarching goal of stabilizing the economy involves ensuring income stability for those most in need of work, which is fundamental for promoting consumption [4] - The article suggests that effective fiscal spending should prioritize areas that require the most support, thereby maximizing the efficiency of consumption promotion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's July report indicates an increase in the projected ending stocks of soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year in the United States, rising to 310 million bushels from the previous estimate of 295 million bushels in June, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 15 million bushels [1] Group 1 - The projected ending stocks for U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 marketing year are now estimated at 310 million bushels [1] - The previous estimate in June was 295 million bushels, indicating a significant upward revision [1] - The month-over-month increase in soybean ending stocks is 15 million bushels [1]

Company Overview - Teradyne (TER) shares increased by 6.3% to close at $98.62, with notable trading volume exceeding typical levels [1] - The stock has gained 6.9% over the past four weeks, indicating strong performance [1] - Teradyne's diversified portfolio and strong adoption of automated solutions for semiconductor customers' back-end processes are key growth drivers [1] Earnings Expectations - Teradyne is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.54 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 37.2% [2] - Revenue projections stand at $646.05 million, down 11.5% from the same quarter last year [2] Earnings Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate for Teradyne has been revised 0.6% higher in the last 30 days, suggesting potential price appreciation [4] - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions are correlated with stock price movements, indicating a favorable outlook for Teradyne [3][4] Industry Context - Teradyne is part of the Zacks Electronics - Miscellaneous Products industry, which includes other companies like Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) [4] - Hayward Holdings' consensus EPS estimate remains unchanged at $0.22, representing a 4.8% increase compared to the previous year [5] - Hayward Holdings has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), similar to Teradyne [5]