Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - Equity markets are seemingly moving past concerns related to geopolitical events, as evidenced by Asian FX and dollar offer trends [1] - The oil market is largely discounting the recent flare-up in US-Iranian conflict, with prices falling below the June 12 level [3] - Oil traders perceive minimal risk to the market, contingent on no strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and no disruption to the Strait of Hormuz [2] Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The oil market's focus is shifting to supply and demand fundamentals, which are currently bearish [4] - Widespread expectations suggest oil supplies will outpace demand in the second half of the year [5] - Chinese demand growth has been weak in recent months, contributing to the bearish outlook [6] - OPEC plus has been agreeing to increase output more than normal, adding barrels to the market [8] - Iran has been increasing its exports, further contributing to the supply glut [8] Price Outlook - The market sentiment has swung back to a bearish view, with discussions shifting from extreme scenarios like $100 oil to potentially lower prices [6] - The $60 range is considered a likely level for oil prices, barring disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz [9] - Shale drillers potentially taking advantage of the recent price spike could add supply, putting downward pressure on prices [9]

Geopolitical Impact on Markets - US-Iran tensions initially caused market anxiety, but a ceasefire was announced, leading to a market rally [1][2][22] - Historical data suggests that major US war events typically trigger short-term market dips, followed by bull markets [7] - Macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks often lead to a significant drawdown in the stock market, but recovery is typical, with a median recovery time of 17 days [9][10] Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a dip during the initial strike but recovered, highlighting its 24/7 global and liquid nature [3][4] - Bitcoin's volatility is expected, with a 5% dip considered normal, and it has shown significant growth over the past 90 days (up 15%) and year (up over 50%) [4][5] - Altcoins are also showing signs of recovery, with investors being bullish on certain ecosystems like SUI [11] Monetary Policy and Asset Inflation - Global M2 money supply is expanding, which historically correlates with asset inflation, including Bitcoin, with an 80% correlation over time [8] - The US stock market's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is currently at 40x, indicating it is overvalued compared to historical averages and other developed/emerging markets [14] - The Federal Reserve has ended reputational risk oversight, easing crypto banking restrictions, which is considered bullish for the crypto market [13] Industry Developments and Opportunities - Delorean Motor Company (DMC) is launching a crypto on the SUI network, with an airdrop of over 15 million DMC tokens [11][12] - Hedge fund veterans are planning a $100 million BNB Treasury bet, indicating institutional interest in Binance's token [24] - VChain is experiencing growth, with 27 million addresses and 20 million actions [23]

Geopolitical Tensions - US President addresses criticism regarding potential military conflict with Iran, expressing disagreement with conservatives skeptical of military intervention [2] - Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issues warning/threat to Israel, indicating potential missile strikes [4] - Rhetoric from all parties is escalating [5] US Stance - US President appears ambivalent about US involvement in potential conflict with Iran [5] - US President has not made any final decisions regarding potential conflict with Iran and will be holding a meeting in the situation room [5]

Geopolitical Landscape & US Foreign Policy - President Trump abruptly cancelled meetings at the G7 summit, citing the need to address the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [1][2] - The US is considering its role in supporting Israel, weighing military intervention against diplomatic solutions [3][4] - President Trump stated he is seeking a definitive "end" to the conflict rather than a ceasefire [5] - German Chancellor indicated that complete destruction of Iranian nuclear program is on the agenda if Iran does not back down, which Israel cannot achieve alone [4] Trade Negotiations & International Relations - Limited tangible progress was made on the trade front at the G7 summit, despite numerous meetings with G7 and EU leaders [7] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the EU's trade offers, deeming them unfair [8] - A potential trade deal with Japan is possible, but negotiations are expected to be challenging [8] - The German Chancellor anticipates a resolution to the tariff dispute with the US (EU) before the end of summer [9][10] - President Trump views the EU as economically competitive and potentially challenging to the United States [11] - The US may consider extending the July 9th deadline for trade negotiations with the EU if progress is being made [11][12][14]

We're not looking for a ceasefire. I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire. We were looking for better than a ceasefire. What specifically is better than a ceasefire.What are you looking for here. An a real end, not a ceasefire. And then so something that will be permanent.Yeah. Or or uh giving up entirely. Is that okay too.Are you close there. Is are you possible. Is that possible in the next 24 hours.Certainly possible. We'll come down so hard if they do anything to our people. We'll come down so hard ...

Hey guys, good morning. It was a surprise and a sudden departure for the president from here late last night. The White House saying that he was leaving early in order to focus on everything that's going on in the Middle East.And as you mentioned, the president spoke with reporters on that flight back uh to Washington on Air Force One, making news mostly on Iran. Take a listen here. We're not looking for a ceasefire. I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire.What specifically is better than a ceasefire. Wh ...

President Trump departing the G Summit 7 a day early to focus on the Israeli Iranian conflict. Megan Castella joins us right now with more on that. Megan, good morning. Hey, good morning again, Becky.That's right. We had expected the president to be here in Alberta through the end of the day today for a full day of meetings, including scheduled bilateral meetings with the presidents of Ukraine and Mexico as well. All of that getting scrapped quite suddenly late last night when the White House said the presi ...

Dan, it is great to see you. So, let's dive right into this, Dan. So, a historic geopolitical moment here, Israel, Iran, that war going red-hot.One question front and center, Dan, is just how long we think this conflict could last. When clients ask you, what are you telling them, Dan, and what are the what are the variables that depends on. Uh, thanks, Josh.Good to see you. So, uh, it's an excellent question. How long does the war last and what does it depend on.I I think it will take anywhere from a few da ...

There were more Russian attacks overnight against Ukrainian cities, more civilian casualties. According to local officials, there is still no ceasefire here. But after this latest exchange of prisoners, there is renewed hope that there'll be more prisoner swaps.Dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war were freed in an exchange with Russia. They were greeted to a hero's welcome at a hospital north of Kev. Yeah, but they looked like the living dead, gaunt, heads shaven, their bodies broken, and some said beaten.A ...

Tonight, Scott P in Ukraine with President Voteir Zalinski. The Ukrainian president faces a critical moment in his alliance with the United States. In an interview this past Friday, Voteir Zalinski invited President Trump here to Ukraine to see how Russia's unprovoked invasion three years ago continues to threaten the peace of the Western world. Zalinski is navigating a sharp turnabout in Washington. The United States had been leading NATO in arming Ukraine and isolating Russia. But since taking office, Pre ...