当地时间14日，由德国基尔世界经济研究所举办的"世界贸易对话"活动在德国汉堡举行。出席活动的经 济领域专家表示，中美双方就关税达成共识利好全球经济发展。德国基尔世界经济研究所所长莫里茨. 舒拉里克表示，中美两国宣布暂停实施部分额外关税对德国经济和全球经济来说都是好消息。世界最大 的两个经济体之间征收如此高额的关税是不可持续的，对全球经济是一种负担。舒拉里克认为，在这场 美国挑起的贸易争端中，欧洲和中国之间的关系将得到加强。世界贸易组织首席经济学家拉尔夫.奥萨 表示，世贸组织方面非常欢迎中美两国在关税问题上达成共识，希望双方今后能够合作解决贸易冲突。 同时，他还认为中国将来会继续在世贸组织内发挥建设性作用。(央视新闻) ...

请到了我们宏观团队的两位重量级嘉宾Robin Xing我们的中国首席经济学家以及Laura Wang我们的中国首席股票策略师因为昨天在日内瓦的中美贸易谈判有了重大的实质性进展这个联合声明也是让全球股票市场感到非常兴奋所以今天早上我们要请Robin和Laura 来讲一讲他们对这个事情的反应以及后续的看法那么我们首先交给Robin我们的中国首席经济学家来解读一下这个日内瓦的联合声明以及对中美双方的宏观经济的潜在影响Robin 谢谢 好的 谢谢麦克 各位早上好昨天的声明肯定是比市场预期好得多这就是麦克一开始介绍到的这是一个重大变化中美贸易战的局势出现了超预期的缓和 大家肯定记得Laura跟我我们过去六个礼拜的宏观策略谈上面也预计了中美在五六月份就会坐下来谈六月底之前就会降关税但是当时我们还是保守了点认为大概六月底关税降到70到了今年下半年继续谈最后一路降到大概30出头到40左右剔掉一些豁免大概就是30几的关税水平 但当时给的一个判断是渐进式的不大可能第一次就降到30但昨天很显然这个降幅是超预期的我想大家就关注后面对经济的影响以及整个这个谈判的过程是不是反反复复还有很多不确定性那我用个5分钟时间先讲一下结论吧 我想中 ...

市场洞察 环球市场纵览 《2025年二季度环球市场纵览-中国版》由摩根资产管理发布，对2025年二季度全球主要经济体的经济状况、金融市场表现进行了全面分析，并阐述了投资 策略相关内容，为投资者提供市场洞察与决策参考。 1. 全球经济形势：不同经济体呈现出差异化的发展态势。成熟市场中，美国经济在通胀、就业等方面表现复杂，美联储政策利率影响市场预期；欧元区经济 增长与通胀面临挑战；日本经济增长和通胀波动，日元汇率受美日息差等因素左右。新兴市场中，中国经济总量增长平稳，消费、投资、工业生产等领域有 不同表现，货币政策和财政政策协同发力 。同时，全球制造业和服务业PMI显示经济活动有扩张与收缩的不同趋势，全球通胀水平也存在地区差异。 2. 金融市场表现 股票市场：中国股票市场各指数表现分化，沪深300指数等估值有差异，行业轮动明显，不同风格板块收益不同，中概股和港股也有各自的市场表现。全球 股票市场中，美国、日本、欧洲等地区股市在回报构成、盈利预期和估值方面各有特点。 固定收益市场：中国债券市场规模扩大，国债、信用债等板块收益率和信用利差有变化，城投债和中资离岸债券市场也呈现特定的发展态势，债券市场国际 化进程持续推 ...

Group 1 - The second meeting of the China-Europe Financial Working Group was held in Brussels, Belgium, on May 13-14, focusing on global economic uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions [1] - Discussions included financial stability, banking and insurance regulation, and the development of pension funds and leasing companies [1] - Constructive discussions were held on emerging areas such as sustainable finance, cross-border data flow, and the construction of cross-border payment systems [1] Group 2 - A roundtable meeting for China-Europe financial institutions took place concurrently, where financial institutions provided professional advice on digital transformation and fintech innovation [1] - There was extensive communication regarding specific requests to optimize market access and promote business innovation [1] - All parties agreed to establish a regular communication mechanism to jointly promote deeper and broader financial cooperation between China and Europe [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Milan Report presents a comprehensive strategy for restructuring the global trade system, emphasizing the need to address the overvaluation of the US dollar as a root cause of global economic imbalances [1][2]. Group 1: Milan Report Insights - The Milan Report, titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System," was published by Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024 [1]. - It argues that the persistent overvaluation of the US dollar hinders balanced international trade, stemming from low elastic demand for reserve assets globally [1]. - The report suggests that tariffs can be a unilateral tool for the US government to address dollar overvaluation, allowing other countries to share the cost of the US providing global reserve assets [1]. Group 2: Proposed Strategies - Besides tariffs, the US can utilize both multilateral and unilateral monetary strategies to reduce trade and financial imbalances [2]. - A multilateral strategy involves signing a new version of the Plaza Accord (referred to as the Mar-a-Lago Agreement) with other major countries to encourage their currencies to appreciate against the dollar [2]. - The report also recommends converting US Treasury holdings into ultra-long-term bonds to alleviate repayment pressures on the US government [2]. Group 3: Implications of Tariffs - The report indicates that the first round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration benefited the US by increasing fiscal revenue and mitigating inflation due to currency depreciation in other countries [3]. - It posits that if China were to devalue the yuan in response to US tariffs, it could lead to a significant capital outflow and financial market turmoil in China [3]. Group 4: Counterarguments and Risks - The analysis overlooks the adjustments already made in the Chinese real estate market prior to the potential new tariffs, with signs of stabilization emerging [4]. - It also fails to recognize that the Chinese government is unlikely to significantly devalue the yuan as a countermeasure to tariff pressures, given the lack of basis for such a move [4]. - The report does not account for China's reduced trade dependency on the US and its strategic shift towards domestic consumption and expanding internal demand [4]. Group 5: Global Cooperation and Currency Dynamics - The report neglects the potential for China to enhance cooperation with other countries to counter US actions, which could lead to improved bilateral relations, particularly with Europe [5]. - It warns that unilateral and multilateral strategies could damage the US's reputation as a global market provider and the dollar's status as a reserve currency, potentially accelerating changes in the international monetary system [5]. - The report suggests that if the US continues down a path of isolationism, it could create opportunities for the internationalization of the yuan, particularly in commodity trading and cross-border settlement [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "BRICS+" alliance is emerging as a counterbalance to the G7, reshaping the global economic landscape and necessitating a thematic and active management investment approach [1][2][8]. Group 1: Transformation of World Order - The global order is shifting from a US-centric model to a more diversified structure, with competition and cooperation between "BRICS+" and the G7 expected to coexist long-term [2]. - The competition for resources, particularly in technology, energy, and commodities, is becoming central to future economic growth, with BRICS countries holding strategic advantages in these areas [3][19]. Group 2: Investment Methodology Reconstruction - The traditional dichotomy of "developed" and "emerging" markets may no longer be applicable, as investment opportunities will focus on growth drivers rather than conventional market classifications [4][12]. - The rise of thematic investing is becoming a new paradigm, where investors should adopt strategies based on core growth drivers and diversify across private and public market securities to capture growth opportunities in a divided world [5][23]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Change - The investment landscape is evolving, with key growth drivers including technology, energy supply, commodities/resources, and productivity advantages [24]. - The nature of these drivers is changing, with increased demand for energy due to new technologies and a shift in economic positions among nations based on their resource endowments [15][17]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The rise of "BRICS+" is prompting a reevaluation of asset management practices, as the evolving alliance and fragmented world order will have profound impacts on investment methodologies and asset classification logic [10][20]. - Economic resilience is becoming a strategic priority for many countries, leading to diversification of industries and a focus on domestic production, which may increase inflation in the short to medium term [22].

原油日报 | 2025-05-14 需求预期持续改善，油价延续涨势 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.72美元，收于每桶63.67美元，涨幅为2.78%；7月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.67美元，收于每桶66.63美元，涨幅为2.57%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.70%，报491元/ 桶。 2、美国通胀降温，4月CPI同比2.3%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。核心CPI同比增长2.8%，为自2021年春季通胀 爆发以来的最低速度。住房成本依旧是通胀关键，机票、二手车、食品价格出现下降。尽管如此，关税的影响仍 未完全显现，企业可能在消化库存。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。白宫称，美国与沙特达成有 史以来两国最大规模的商业协议，含谷歌、DataVolt、甲骨文等公司的800亿美元尖端科技投资、DataVolt的200亿 美元AI数据中心和能源基建投资、48亿美元波音飞机采购、接近1420亿美元的史上最高金额军火销售协议等。沙 特王储称，沙特将努力推动在美国投资额达到1万亿美元。（来源： ...

V i e w p o i n t | 12 May 2025 17:44:22 ET │ 26 pages Metal Matters Expecting gold to consolidate $3-3,300/oz over the coming months, downgrading 0-3m target price to $3,150/oz CITI'S TAKE Gold prices reached record highs in late April and breached our 0-3m point- price target of $3,500/oz as gold demand fired on all cylinders. As tariff concerns drove a significant part of the last leg higher, gold prices are likely to continue consolidating amid progresses on tariff negotiations. In this quarterly update ...

宋向清是中国商业经济学会副会长兼自由贸易港（区）专委会会长，中国商业史学会副会长兼商业人物专委会副主任，北京师范大学政府管理研究院原副院 长兼产业经济研究中心主任、研究员，长期从事商业经济、产业政策和商业史研究。 在讲座中，宋向清从中美关税战的蝴蝶效应入题，全方面阐述了当前全球经济变局下的调整与启示，并从政策驱动、数字赋能、需求升级三方面阐述了当前 商业转型与消费升级的必然性，并指出商业转型破局的五大路径"消费场景创新：从'卖产品到''卖体验'""绿色转型：可持续发展成为商业新命题""产业链重 构：数字化不是选择题，而是生存题""品牌价值升维：企业须从'卖商品'转向'创价值'""全球化与本土化协同创新：关税战倒逼企业重构供应链"。最后，他 结合安阳工学院实际，从"高校使命：培育新商业时代的创新力量""青年担当：在变革中书写人生价值"两方面，着重强调了新形势下，高校的责任担当与当 代大学生的使命担当。 宋向清认为，数字经济时代是历史的选择、文明的进阶、科技进步的必然，是社会大势所趋，国家大爱所托，民族大志所向。每个青年大学生都要热情迎接 数字经济时代，主动拥抱数字经济时代，积极奉献数字经济时代。 "青年大学生秉 ...

欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫：全球经济一体化目前已陷入停滞，甚至出现倒退；过去几周，变化的速度和规 模都在加快。 ...