Group 1 - The Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that tariffs and trade uncertainties are putting pressure on economic activity [1] - The overall impact on UK inflation remains unclear [1] - A significant decline in global trade prices is expected [1] Group 2 - There has been no communication regarding a trade agreement with the United States [1] - Trade agreements are welcomed as they would reduce uncertainty [1]

惠誉：新加坡经济仍可能受到美国关税对区域及全球贸易产生的重大间接影响。 ...

全球贸易不确定性增加，全球航运巨头马士基警告，全球集装箱运输量面临下降风险？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

她表示，在此背景下，她在过去几周里与各成员进行了接触，讨论如何为MC14制定一个可信的路线 图。 MC14定于2026年3月26日至29日在喀麦隆举行。 优先考虑WTO重新定位和改革 伊维拉说，成员们强调第MC14必须发出明确政治信息，重申WTO在当前全球不确定性中的相关性和复 原力，各方大力支持优先考虑WTO的重新定位和改革。 她说，在实质问题上，许多成员针对WTO现有规则手册中的不足之处提出了前瞻性的纠正措施，并对 包括监督和透明度、谈判和争端解决在内的核心职能进行改革。 "我们现在正处于世界贸易史上最大的一次混乱之中。" 第一财经记者从世贸组织（WTO）方面获知，当地时间7日，WTO总干事伊维拉表示，各成员广泛同 意，该组织的重新定位和改革必须成为将于2026年3月举行的第十四届部长级会议（MC14）的中心优 先事项。 "我们现在正处于世界贸易史上最大的一次紊乱之中。"她说，"但是，我们现在距离MC14会议还有不到 一年的时间，我们必须思考需要做些什么来最大程度地提高会议取得成功的机会，包括解决这场贸易危 机带来的一些问题。" "目前的混乱局面被视为一个重要机会，可借以解决该体系的薄弱环节，并为WTO的 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，加拿大人寿资产管理公司投资总监Steve Matthews指出，降息50个基点将是英国央 行即将召开的会议的重要议题，这反映出自3月按兵不动以来经济背景的转变。全球贸易中断与经济放 缓迹象——尤其是美国GDP季度数据下滑——已使更大幅度降息成为焦点。鉴于英国CPI通胀现已基本 达标，预计MPC委员丁格拉与曼恩将支持降息50个基点，为可能的意外大幅降息打开大门。不过 Matthews预测，这一阵营预计最终将被多数票否决，从而通过25个基点的降息决议，使基准利率降至 4.25%。 机构：不排除英国央行大幅降息50个基点的可能性 ...

乌克兰央行行长安德烈·皮什尼(Andriy Pyshnyi)周三在接受媒体采访时表示，在全球贸易分 裂和乌克兰与欧洲联系日益紧密的背景下，乌克兰正开始考虑摆脱美元，可能将该国货币格里 夫纳与欧元更紧密地挂钩。 皮什尼在一份邮件声明中称，"欧盟在确保我们国防能力方面作用的加强、全球市场的更大波 动性以及全球贸易碎片化的可能性，正迫使央行重新评估是否应将欧元而非美元，作为乌克兰 格里夫纳的参考货币。" 皮什尼补充称，"这项工作很复杂，需要高质量、多方面的准备。" 这是乌克兰官员就可能发生的汇率重大变革发表的最直接的评论。目前，美元在国际贸易中仍 占有压倒性的主导地位，并占据了全球外汇储备中的大部分。 沙特里亚尔、港元等非美货币 均与美元挂钩。 弃美投欧 皮什尼表示，虽然美元交易继续主导着外汇市场的各个环节，但欧元交易份额在多数领域一直 在上升，尽管"迄今为止上升幅度不大"。 乌克兰于1996年推出格里夫纳，过去几十年来一直使用美元作为参考货币。2022年2月俄乌 冲突爆发后，乌克兰央行立即实施了资本管制，并将格里夫纳的官方汇率定为1美元兑29格里 夫纳。后来，由于财政失衡加剧，格里夫纳被迫贬值。 2023年10月 ...

英国央行将实施去年8月以来的第四次降息。面对特朗普关税对全球经济的影响，市场将密切关注英国 央行是否会释放加快降息步伐的信号。 自去年6月以来，欧洲央行已经降息了七次。华尔街见闻此前提及，在关税的冲击下，市场预期欧洲央 行6月及以后将继续降息。 美联储周三按兵不动，但指出经济前景的不确定性已经增加，失业率和通胀率上升的风险均有所提高。 自去年9月以来，美联储连续三次降息，幅度100个基点。 投资者目前完全预期到2025年底前英国央行将再实施三次降息，这将使基准利率从目前的4.5%降至 3.5%。 5月8日，据报道，在今天的货币政策会议上，英国央行预计将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%。 英国央行行长贝利（Andrew Bailey）一直强调需要采取"渐进、谨慎"的降息策略。然而，贝利最近强调 了全球贸易紧张局势对经济构成的风险。 分析认为，由于特朗普关税政策加剧全球贸易紧张局势，英国央行将不得不重新评估其经济预测。今 天，英国央行将发布最新的经济预测，投资者将从中观察未来降息步伐的信号。 英国央行降息步伐或加速 这将是自去年8月以来英国央行的第四次降息，步伐慢于美联储和欧洲央行，原因在于英国央行对劳动 力市 ...

波兰中央银行：财政和监管政策是不确定性的来源。全球贸易和通胀也增加了不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, rubber prices rose significantly, with a large increase in open interest and net inflow of funds. The rise was mainly due to the oversold rebound after the previous sharp decline and the return of funds after the holiday. Currently, the rubber fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The supply side is entering the tapping season, but Thai raw material prices remain high due to rainfall and slow tapping. The demand side saw a significant drop in the operating rate of downstream tire factories during the holiday. As of April 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points. As of April 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.1%. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies and the instability of domestic stockpiling events, it is recommended to reduce the risk exposure in the short term and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - RU主力: from 14815 to 14555, up 270; NR主力: from 12285 to 12555; BR主力: from 11080 to 11315, up 3.5; Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg): from 292.2 to 295.7; Sicom TF (cents/kg): from 167.8 to 164.8, down 10 [3]. Futures Spread - RU2509 - RU2505: from 205 to 195; RU2601 - RU2509: from 745 to 740; NR主力 - 次主力: from 65 to 45; BR主力 - 次主力: from 75 to - 160; RU - NR: from 2270 to 2260; RU - BR: from 3500 to 3475; NR - BR: from 1240 to 1205; RU - Tocom RSS3 ($): up 33; NR - Sicom TF ($): up 18 [3]. Raw Material Price - 烟片胶: from 70.71 to 71.41, up 0.70; 胶水: from 59.25 to 58.75, up 0.50; 杯胶: from 52.65 to 53.05, up 0.40; 海南胶水(浓乳): 14200 (unchanged); 海南胶水(全乳): 13100 (unchanged); 云南胶水(浓乳): from 13900 to 13800, up 100; 云南胶块(全乳): from 13800 to 13600, up 200 [3]. Spot Price - 国产9710: from 14600 to 14500, up 100; 老全乳: from 14600 to 14400, up 200; 越南3L: from 16100 to 15950, up 150; 泰混: from 14200 to 14450, up 250; 马混: from 14350 to 14100, up 250; 泰标: from 12745 to 12386, up 359; 国产标二: from 14100 to 13900, up 200; 上海:黄春发散装: N/A to 11100; 上海:海南散装: N/A to 10800; 顺丁BR9000: 11600 (unchanged); 丁苯SBR1502: from 12100 to 12000, up 100; 丁苯SBR1712: from 11000 to 11050, up 50; 泰混CIF: from 1850 to 1840, up 10; 马混CIF: from 1745 to 1770, up 25; 泰标CIF: from 1840 to 1850, up 10; 马标CIF: from 1770 to 1745, up 25; 印标CIF: from 1660 to 1685, up 25 [3]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - 美元指数: from 99.7911 to 99.6403, up 0.151; 美元/人民币: from 7.2008 to 7.2014; 美元/日元: from 143.6860 to 143.0585, up 0.627; 美元/泰铢: from 32.9200 to 33.3550, down 0.435; SHIBOR - 隔夜: from 1.760 to 1.702, down 0.058; SHIBOR - 七天: from 1.707 to 1.762, down 0.055 [3].