7月14日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会介绍2025年上半年进出口情况，海关总署相关负责人出席 并回应了大宗商品贸易、下半年外贸形势、外资企业表现、中美经贸关系等市场关注话题。 海关总署副署长王令浚在会上介绍，今年以来，我国外贸在复杂环境下顶住压力、保持动力、展现活 力。据海关统计，今年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元，同比增长2.9%，站稳20万亿元台 阶，创历史同期新高。其中，出口13万亿元，增长7.2%；进口8.79万亿元，下降2.7%。 对于今年来备受关注的中美贸易情况，王令浚回应表示，上半年，我国对美国进出口总值2.08万亿元， 同比下降9.3%。其中，出口1.55万亿元，下降9.9%，进口5303.5亿元，下降7.7%。受美国所谓"对等关 税"影响，中美贸易由第一季度同比增长转为第二季度同比下降，降幅达到了20.8%。 回顾今年上半年我国外贸表现，建信期货宏观分析师冯泽仁在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，我国外贸 在复杂多变的全球经济环境中展现出韧性，总体呈现稳健增长态势。其中，上半年出口规模首次突破13 万亿元，同比增长7.2%，成为拉动外贸增长的核心因素；同时，上半年绿色低碳产品占出口 ...

Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 2.7% [1] - In June alone, the import and export scale grew by 5.2% year-on-year to 3.85 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest monthly trade volume in history [1] Group 2: High-tech Product Exports - High-tech product exports increased by 9.2% in the first half of the year, maintaining growth for nine consecutive months [1] - Key high-tech exports included high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment, all exceeding 20% growth, while instrument exports rose by 14.7% [1] - The proportion of self-owned brands in high-tech products reached 32.4%, up by 1.2 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Group 3: Market Adaptation and Innovation - More enterprises are adapting to international market demands by offering differentiated and customized products, such as solar-powered phones for areas with power shortages [2] - The popularity of Chinese products is also enhanced by "soft power," exemplified by the global success of "Labubu," which has increased the appeal of Chinese toys in international markets [2] - In the first four months, exports of dolls and animal toys exceeded 10 billion yuan, reaching 13.31 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.6% [2] Group 4: Trade Relations and Challenges - China's trade with the U.S. saw a total value of 2.08 trillion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with exports down by 9.9% and imports down by 7.7% [3] - The decline in trade with the U.S. was influenced by "reciprocal tariffs," with a significant drop of 20.8% in the second quarter [3] - Recent trade talks in Geneva and London have shown positive progress, with June's trade value rebounding from May's figures, indicating a narrowing of the year-on-year decline [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2 - China's total goods trade in the first half of 2025 was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] - In June 2025, the monthly trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports of 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [4] Group 3 - China Salt Chemical Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 5.998 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 88.04% to 52.71 million yuan [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [11] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit growth of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [12] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [21]

Export Data - In June, exports (in USD) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[7] - The rise in exports was primarily due to a shift in the "export grabbing" focus from emerging markets to the United States[2] - Exports to the US surged by 18.4% compared to a decline of 16.0% in the previous month, indicating a significant recovery[2] Import Data - Imports (in USD) rose by 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected -0.6% and the previous value of -3.4%[7] - The increase in imports was mainly driven by a rebound in bulk commodity imports, including iron ore (+12.4% to 8.5%) and crude oil (+8.2% to 7.4%)[5] Market Trends - The "export grabbing" phenomenon towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while the trend towards the US is gaining momentum[2] - The export growth to emerging markets, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, with exports to Latin America dropping by 4.5 percentage points to -2.0%[2] - The export of midstream manufacturing goods to emerging economies decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.7%[3] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the US, but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion[3] - Key indicators for future export performance include a continued rise in processing trade imports and high prices for Yiwu small commodities[3]

Core Viewpoint - June export data shows strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, exceeding expectations and remaining consistent with the cumulative growth of 6.0% over the previous five months, indicating no signs of slowdown as of June [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - The strong performance in June is likely attributed to the "tariff easing effect," where the US has removed 91% of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and suspended 24% of tariffs for 90 days as of May 14, 2025 [1][5][6] - The US manufacturing PMI for imports showed a recovery from a low of 39.9 in May to 47.4 in June, aligning with improved export growth in China and South Korea [6][7] - Exports to the EU acted as a stabilizer, while ASEAN and Africa served as accelerators, with exports to the US declining at a slower rate in June compared to April and May [2][7] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - In April, exports to the US saw a significant drop of -21%, but exports to Europe were slightly better than the overall average, while exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America maintained high growth rates of around 20% [2][7] - By June, exports to the US decreased by -16.1%, while exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, and exports to ASEAN and Africa continued to show strong growth [8] Group 3: Product Categories - High-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits are leading China's export growth, with automotive and ship exports growing at 23.1% and 23.6% respectively [3][8] - Labor-intensive products continue to show low growth, with textiles, bags, and clothing combined showing a -1.0% year-on-year growth, while toys saw a temporary spike of 8.1% due to tariff easing [3][8] - Electronic products displayed a mixed trend, with integrated circuits growing at 24.2%, while mobile phones and data processing equipment continued to decline [3][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The mid-term report suggests potential export slowdown due to expected economic deceleration in Europe and the US, as well as stricter origin rules in Southeast Asia [4][10] - Projections for the third quarter indicate a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.98%, while the fourth quarter may see a decline to around 2.96%, leading to an overall growth of about 4.43% for the second half of the year [4][11] - Recent credit and social financing data for June also showed positive trends, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, indicating supportive conditions for market risk appetite [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while "export grabbing" towards the United States is beginning to take effect [2][7][55] Export Data Analysis - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage point from May, driven by a shift in the main subjects of "export grabbing" [2][7][55] - Exports to emerging countries, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, while exports to the United States saw a significant rebound of 18.4% [2][5][55] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was primarily in consumer electronics and furniture, reflecting a resurgence in orders from the U.S. following negotiations in mid-May [2][13][55] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the U.S., but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion [3][25][26][56] - The necessity for "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is expected to decrease as the tariff suspension period ends [3][25][26] Regular Tracking of Exports and Imports - Consumer goods exports, including consumer electronics and real estate chain products, showed an upward trend in June [4][29][57] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited mixed growth, with significant declines in some categories like shipbuilding and automotive parts, while fertilizers saw a notable increase [4][32][57] - Imports also rebounded in June, primarily driven by an increase in bulk commodity imports, indicating a recovery in domestic investment demand [5][44][58]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月14日，海关公布6月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比5.8%、预期3.6%、前值4.8%；进口 （美元计价）同比1.1%、预期-0.6%、前值-3.4%。 核心观点：对新兴国家"抢出口"接近结束，对美国"抢出口"开始发酵 然而，此前通过新兴国家"抢出口"的现象仍继续退坡。 从四大类出口商品来看，此前主要面向新兴经济 体出口的中游制造类商品（-0.6pct至5.7%）于本月继续下滑。尽管肥料（+63.7pct至59.3%）的出口回升 明显，但其规模较小；规模较大的集成电路（-9.2pct至24.2%）等增速明显回落，进一步验证了我国对新 兴国家的"抢出口"现象持续退坡。 展望未来，7月我国出口有望因对美"抢出口"延续而维持韧性，但"抢出口"或在8月结束，届时出口将面 临需求透支带来的负面影响。 新兴国家对等关税暂停期将结束，7 月"抢转口"必要性下降。但对美"抢出 口"有望接续，两个指标可做参考：一是通常领先出口一个月的加工贸易进口同比在6 月继续回升；二是 义乌小商品价格仍维持高位。 常规跟踪：出口、进口均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, exports more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US negotiation easing. In the short term, the export resilience remains and the July reading may be decent. In the medium term, there is high uncertainty in tariff policies after mid - August, and the overall exports in the second half of the year may face a slowdown risk. The bond market may focus more on domestic policy responses, and the disturbance of the "broad credit" sentiment in the third quarter may increase[6][33] - In June, the import growth rate turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and price improvement. However, the import volume of upstream energy products weakened and the growth rate of downstream automobile imports slowed down, indicating that domestic demand still needs policy support. The data verification in the third quarter is crucial, and policies may be strengthened to stabilize demand[6][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Export: The Logic of "Rushing to Export" Strengthens, and Transit Trade Cools Down - **Overall Situation**: In June, the export growth rate was +5.8%, 1 percentage point higher than that in May. The export in June more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation easing in mid - May. The "rushing to export" logic continued to support export resilience, and the appreciation of the RMB also boosted the export reading[5][9][18] - **By Commodity Type** - **Labor - Intensive Consumer Goods**: The year - on - year decline of exports of four types of non - durable consumer goods (clothing, footwear, luggage, and toys) narrowed to around 0%, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2%. Toys performed strongly, possibly reflecting the pre - release of the peak export season for Christmas supplies[2][20] - **Intermediate Goods for Production**: The combined year - on - year growth of five types of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +12.2%, driving export growth by 1.4 percentage points. In the short term, intermediate goods exports are expected to maintain high growth[2][21] - **Durable Consumer Goods**: The combined drag of mobile phones and laptops on exports was about 0.4 percentage points, an improvement from May. The contribution of automobile exports increased for three consecutive months, driving June's export growth by 0.5 percentage points[2][24] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In June, the year - on - year decline of exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU and Japan increased by 7.6% and 6.6% respectively. The weight of exports to the US rebounded to 11.7%, higher than that in April and May but still lower than the level in the first quarter of this year[3][28] - **ASEAN**: The proportion of exports to ASEAN declined to 17.9% in June, the lowest since March this year, as direct exports crowded out transit trade demand[3][28] - **Outlook**: In early August, the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period for multiple parties by the US will end. It is expected that the "rushing to export" in July will continue to be released at an accelerated pace, and the year - on - year export reading may not be weak. Leading indicators suggest that the export growth rate in July may further increase[5][12][33] 3.2 Import: Price Recovery, Low - Base Effect, and the Year - on - Year Growth of Imports Turns Positive - **Overall Situation**: In June, the import amount increased by 1.1% year - on - year, turning positive for the first time since December last year, mainly due to the low - base effect and the improvement of bulk commodity spot prices. However, the month - on - month import decreased by 1.2%, weaker than the seasonal average[4][34] - **By Commodity Type** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The year - on - year import of five types of upstream bulk commodities decreased by 11.4%, dragging down the import by 3.1 percentage points. The weakening of import volume may be the main drag[35] - **Intermediate Goods**: The combined year - on - year growth of four types of intermediate goods was +8.6%, 4.7 percentage points better than that in May, driving the year - on - year import growth by about 1.9 percentage points[35] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The combined year - on - year import of three types of consumer goods decreased by 21.0%, and the drag on imports increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month[35]

Group 1 - China's export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - In June, the total import and export scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in growth rates [1] - The complete industrial chain and continuous technological upgrades provide a strong foundation for China's export resilience amid challenging external environments [1][2] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value added has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually since the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [2] - China's trade partnerships expanded, with over 190 countries and regions experiencing growth in imports and exports, and the number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased by 5 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Exports to emerging markets contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Africa increasing by 14.4% and to Central Asia by 13.8% in the first half of the year [3] - Despite a decline in export growth to the U.S., China's export resilience is supported by strong product competitiveness and market diversification [3] - Various international organizations have downgraded global trade growth forecasts for 2025, but China has maintained its own pace and rhythm in trade [3]

Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[3] - The significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1% contributed to a total export increase of 1.3 percentage points[4] - The rebound in exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong regions contributed an additional 0.8 percentage points to overall export growth in June[4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Growth - The temporary suspension of tariffs since May has positively impacted export orders, with the SCFI index reflecting a significant rise in shipping rates[3] - The depreciation of the RMB against the Euro and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have supported resilient export performance to the EU[4] - Exports measured in RMB showed a stronger performance with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in June, compared to the dollar-denominated figures[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of external demand remains a critical variable, with concerns about the U.S. demand's capacity for further growth[5] - High-frequency indicators suggest a decline in export momentum, with noticeable drops in port cargo volumes and container shipping rates to the U.S. in early July[5] - Risks include potential policy changes, unexpected shifts in domestic economic conditions, and unforeseen fluctuations in export dynamics[7]