本文来自微信公众号：局外人的视界，题图来自：视觉中国 一大早就看到伊朗、以色列分别庆祝自己胜利。 然后懂王也赢了，从前的大额银行贷款都连本带利的还清了。 但常识告诉我，伊、以、美三方博弈，最多能维持个零和游戏，人人都赢是不可能的，不过嘛，三国的 利益又关懂王啥事？ 懂王答应以色列炸波斯，不是做到了吗？ 懂王答应自己的铁杆们，促成伊以停火，也办到了。 最妙的是，在几番折腾里，国际油价，金价剧烈波动，跟着懂王的聪明钱们多空双赚，吃差价吃得不亦 乐乎，把市场上的财富就这么轻松地转移到自己口袋里。 谁能不赞一句牛叉呢？ 我以为现在中东最大的赢家是王爷们，为啥这么说呢？ 12天的战争彻底试出了以色列跟波斯两家的战争强度，一波也彻底带走了两位小霸王库存的武器。 美帝的库存也被打空了。 其实这一场三国博弈里，三国其实一起输麻了，谁也没达成自己的战略目标，但谁也没有实力将自己的 主张进行到底。 那么将来会如何呢？ 矛盾摆在那里，它只会暂时被现实给掩饰起来，但核心矛盾就跟身上的脓包一样，不挤出来，只会不断 地扩大感染溃烂。 现在也就是个暂时的中场休息时间，波斯需要找外援，小以需要逼着美帝再多多的运军火过来。 大家可以关注另一个 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔于6月25日在参议院金融委员会听证会上，就特朗普政府关税计划对通胀的潜在影响 及货币政策走向作出关键阐述。其表态凸显美联储在复杂经济环境下的审慎立场，同时折射出白宫与美 联储在政策目标上的持续张力。 特朗普已启动美联储主席继任者筛选流程，进一步加剧市场对政策连续性的关注。鲍威尔任期将于2025 年5月结束，其接任者的政策倾向或成为影响美联储长期框架的关键变量。 关税效应：短期脉冲与长期通胀风险并存 鲍威尔指出，特朗普政府拟议关税可能推动物价出现"一次性上涨"，但实际影响或突破传统经济模型预 测。他强调，关税的最终规模、实施节奏及市场反应将决定其通胀传导路径："若企业成本结构因关税 调整、供应链重构或公众通胀预期升温，短期价格压力可能演变为持续性风险。" 美联储需警惕关税通过多重渠道放大通胀压力：企业或因进口成本上升提高终端价格，消费者可能因预 期涨价加速消费决策，进一步推高需求。鲍威尔明确，美联储作为物价稳定守护者，必须"管理此类风 险"，这为未来降息决策增添谨慎前提。 利率政策：数据依赖与灵活性并重 面对关税不确定性，美联储选择按兵不动的决策逻辑逐渐清晰。鲍威尔解释，当前关税计划规模远超 2 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 多空博弈加剧，碳酸锂盘面振幅放大 市场分析 2025年6月25日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60700元/吨，收于60880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.96%。当 日成交量为366743手，持仓量为350406手，较前一交易日增加6842手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳680 元/吨。所有合约总持仓630554手，较前一交易日减少982手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少408949手，成交 量451997，整体投机度为0.72。当日碳酸锂仓单22370手，较上个交易日减少5手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月25日电池级碳酸锂报价5.97-6.07万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.03万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.81-5.91万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.03万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震荡上行，主 要受期货盘面反弹影响。当前碳酸锂过剩格局仍未改变。从供应端看，市场可流通货源充足，库存压力尚未得到 有效缓解；需求侧则未有显著增量预期，下游正极材料企业维持谨慎采购策略，仅以刚需采购为主。此前碳酸锂 价格快速下探，已逐步逼近行 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of remaining calm amidst market exuberance, highlighting that underlying capital dynamics are crucial for investment success [1] - It discusses three major challenges facing the current bull market: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy uncertainties, and currency market fluctuations [2][4][5] Group 2 - The article points out the disparity in index performance, noting that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has outperformed micro-cap stocks by 13 times over three days, indicating a selective investment environment [7] - It describes the behavioral patterns of retail investors, illustrating a cycle of cautious profit-taking followed by aggressive chasing of highs, which leads to "fear of missing out" [8] - The rise of quantitative trading strategies is highlighted, with institutions leveraging AI and machine learning to gain an edge over retail investors who rely on traditional indicators [10] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of "hot money chasing," where stocks that attract significant capital often experience independent price movements, emphasizing the need for quantitative tools to identify these signals [11] - It explains the deceptive nature of "shakeout" signals in the market, where institutions may use tactics to mislead retail investors while accumulating positions [13] - The narrative concludes with the assertion that understanding market dynamics through data analysis can help investors avoid emotional traps and make informed decisions [15]

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-26 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月25日，生猪注册仓单750手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现下降重利好后市和后市出 栏仍有增量影响震荡运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓369手，持仓约8.1万手，最高价14015元/吨， 最低价13930元/吨，收盘于14000元/吨。 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力尚未完全释放；②后续 出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限； 多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧性强，说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③ ...

Core Insights - The ongoing battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold market is intensifying, particularly in light of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The analysis highlights the increasing volatility in gold orders, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [1] - The potential impact of the Federal Reserve's decisions on gold prices is a focal point for investors [1] Group 2: Order Flow Signals - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing order flow signals to gauge market trends and investor behavior [1] - Live streaming sessions are being conducted to provide real-time insights into gold order flows and market reactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the gold market, highlighting a recent rebound in prices after hitting a low of 3300 during the US trading session, raising questions about whether a temporary bottom has been reached and how to position for short-term trading opportunities [1] Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing increased volatility as traders react to price movements [1] - A recent low of 3300 was observed, followed by a recovery, indicating potential market dynamics at play [1] - The article suggests that there may be a phase of consolidation or a temporary bottom in gold prices, prompting discussions on short-term trading strategies [1]

Group 1 - Ningbo Marine triggered trading disclosure conditions due to price fluctuations, with diverse buying positions observed [1] - The leading buyer, Guotai Junan Securities, purchased 36.48 million yuan, with a 46% probability of the stock rising in the following three days [1] - UBS Securities and Dongfang Caifu Securities also appeared among the top buyers, with respective purchases of 20.73 million yuan and a high activity level [1] Group 2 - The selling side is characterized by a concentration of foreign institutions, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan collectively selling 48.05 million yuan [1] - Guotai Junan Securities also led in selling, with a net sell of 37.06 million yuan, indicating a dual-direction operation [1] - Market analysis suggests a divergence in institutional funds regarding Ningbo Marine, with a general short-term rising probability below 50% for major trading units [2]

Group 1 - New Power Financial's trading volume exceeded 20% on June 25, leading to its appearance on the leaderboard [1] - The top buyers included Goldman Sachs (China) Securities with a purchase amount of 39.95 million yuan, followed by CITIC Securities Shanghai Branch at 35.23 million yuan [1] - Notably, CITIC Securities Shanghai Branch and UBS Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road Second Branch appeared on both the buying and selling sides, indicating differing market views on the stock's short-term performance [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities Shanghai Branch was the top seller with a selling amount of 23.43 million yuan, while also ranking second in buying [1] - The selling activity showed a divergence in capital, with UBS Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road Second Branch selling 20.97 million yuan and Guotai Junan Securities Headquarters selling 20.67 million yuan [1] - Historical data indicates that Guotai Junan Securities Headquarters has appeared on the leaderboard 485 times in the last three months, with a 45.98% probability of the stocks it bought rising within three days [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦宽幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 25 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1387.5 元/吨，日内录得 1.46%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.13 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1125 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.94%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1150 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.71%。近期，随着利多因素逐渐累积，原先普遍悲观的 市场情绪迎来转变，部分空单止盈离 ...