债 券 研 究 债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 15 日 生产依然强于需求 ——6 月经济数据点评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 图 1：2025Q2 我国 GDP 同比增速相比一季度回落至 5.2%，GDP 平减指数连续 9 个季 度为负 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 19/03 19/06 19/09 19/12 20/03 20/06 20/09 20/12 21/03 21/06 21/09 21/12 22/03 22/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23 ...

Core Insights - The central urban work conference held on July 14-15 marks the first high-level meeting on urban development in nearly a decade, indicating a shift in China's urbanization strategy from rapid growth to stable development [1][2] - The meeting emphasizes the need for urban development to focus on improving existing urban stock rather than expanding new construction, highlighting a transition from "big infrastructure" to "big renewal" [2][3] Summary by Categories Urbanization Trends - China's urbanization rate increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% by the end of 2024, with over 944 million people living in urban areas [2] - The number of cities in China has risen to 694, but the pace of urbanization growth has slowed since 2021, indicating a transition to a stable development phase [2] Development Goals - The conference set forth the goal of building a modern, innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and smart city, expanding on previous goals of creating livable and resilient cities [3][4] - The six aspects of urban development goals are interconnected, addressing the need to balance technological advancement with the quality of life for citizens [3][4] Key Tasks for Urban Development - Seven key tasks were outlined, with the optimization of the modern urban system being the top priority, focusing on enhancing the capacity of cities to support population and economic growth [5][6] - The tasks include fostering vibrant innovation cities, creating comfortable and convenient living environments, developing green and low-carbon cities, ensuring safety and resilience, promoting moral and civilized urban spaces, and establishing efficient smart cities [6][7] Collaborative Development - The future urban development strategy emphasizes regional collaboration, moving away from isolated city competition to coordinated development among cities and rural areas [5][6] - The focus will be on creating modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas that leverage the unique characteristics and needs of different cities [7]

(经济观察)中央城市工作会议释城市发展三大信号 中新社北京7月15日电 (记者 刘文文)中央城市工作会议14日至15日在北京举行。此次会议清晰勾勒出未 来城市发展的重要方向，释放了三大关键信号。 其一，"规模扩张"转向"存量提质"，重塑城市发展逻辑。 会议指出，中国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提 质增效为主的阶段。要转变城市发展理念，更加注重以人为本；转变城市发展方式，更加注重集约高 效。 从"规模扩张"到"存量提质"的转向，表明中国城市发展迈入了"精耕细作"的新阶段。中国宏观经济研究 院国土开发与地区经济研究所综合研究室主任贾若祥指出，截至2024年底，中国常住人口城镇化率达到 67%。中国14亿多人口中，有9.4亿人生活在城镇，城镇化逐渐转向稳定发展期。面对新形势，有必要 把集约高效放到新型城镇化更加重要的位置。在这一过程中，盘活存量空间资源，增强城市承载能力至 关重要。 会议由此提出，分类推进以县城为重要载体的城镇化建设。毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟分析，这契 合了当前县域经济和下沉市场的发展潜力。县城作为城镇化的关键节点，具有承接城市功能疏解、促进 城乡融 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "better than the trend" for the next six months, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning into a stable and stock-based new phase, with urban development shifting from outward expansion to inward cultivation. The focus is now on enhancing the intrinsic quality of cities rather than merely expanding their boundaries [3][4]. - Urban renewal has become the core strategy for urban development, moving from large-scale demolition and construction to activating existing stock through renovation and utilization. The emphasis is on high-quality urban development and the establishment of a new model for real estate development [4]. - The supply of new residential land is expected to continue to decrease while improving quality. In the first half of 2025, residential land planned for release in 300 cities was 210 million square meters (down 19.4% year-on-year), with transactions at 170 million square meters (down 5.5% year-on-year). However, the land transfer revenue increased significantly to 860 billion yuan (up 27.5% year-on-year) [5]. Summary by Sections Urban Development - The central government emphasizes the need for modern, innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and smart cities. The urbanization process is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, indicating a new focus on internal quality enhancement [2][3]. Urban Renewal - The core task of urban renewal has evolved from focusing on shantytown and dilapidated housing renovations to addressing complex property rights in urban villages. This marks a significant shift in urban renewal strategies, with a clear directive to avoid large-scale demolitions [4]. Market Supply and Demand - The report highlights a trend of "reduced quantity and improved quality" in new housing supply, with a growing emphasis on product quality among real estate companies. The competitive edge is increasingly leaning towards developers who can deliver high-quality products [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality product developers, the second-hand housing market, and commercial real estate as key areas of investment in the current stock era [5].

Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The urbanization strategy in China is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements[3] - The emphasis is on "in-depth urban development," contrasting with previous strategies that prioritized expanding city sizes[3] - The meeting highlights the need for urbanization to enhance quality rather than merely increasing population and housing stock[3] Group 2: Modern Urban Clusters - Developing modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas is essential for the dual circulation development pattern, driven by industrialization[4] - High-end industries and innovation activities are concentrated in first-tier cities, which are nearing their resource capacity limits[4] - The strategy involves dispersing mature production capacities from high-level cities to surrounding lower-level cities to improve living costs and resource utilization[4] Group 3: Real Estate Development - The meeting emphasizes a "steady progress" approach to real estate development, focusing on infrastructure investment rather than stimulating new property demand[4] - Key tasks include improving urban infrastructure safety and upgrading old pipelines, while limiting the construction of super-tall buildings[4] - Future urbanization investments are expected to primarily target new urban infrastructure development[4]

会议部署了城市工作七个方面的重点任务，包括优化城市体系、建设创新城市、建设宜居城市、建设美丽城市、建设韧性城市、建设文明城市、建设智慧 城市等。其中提到的构建房地产发展新模式、推进城中村和危旧房改造等内容，受到市场广泛关注。 广东省城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，中央城市工作会议召开频率较低，距离上次会议已时隔 10年。城市发展方式从增量转向存量，从外延转向内涵，从房地产单边突进到统筹房地产与产业、就业和人口等，这些都是非常巨大的变化。 据新华社，中央城市工作会议7月14日至15日在北京举行。 会议指出，我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段。 01 进入城市更新的重要时期 根据中央城市工作会议部署，接下来城市工作将着力优化现代化城市体系，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市圈，分类推进以县城为重要载体的 城镇化建设，继续推进农业转移人口市民化，促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展，促进城乡融合发展。 在建设富有活力的创新城市方面，依靠改革开放增强城市动能，高质量开展城市更新，充分发挥城市在国内国际双循环中的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The urbanization process in China has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% in 2024, an increase of 6.76 percentage points from 60.24% in 2017 [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on improving the quality of existing urban areas rather than expanding into new ones. This includes the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [2]. - The report suggests that the new real estate development model will involve a mechanism that links population needs with housing supply, optimizing the housing supply system to include both affordable housing and commercial properties [2]. - The report highlights the importance of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a target of adding 1 million units for such renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve living conditions and enhance urban livability [2]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [2]. Summary by Sections Urbanization Transition - The urbanization rate in China has increased to 67% in 2024, marking a significant rise from previous years [2]. - The focus has shifted from large-scale expansion to enhancing the quality of existing urban areas [2]. New Real Estate Development Model - The report outlines a new model that emphasizes the linkage between population needs and housing supply, aiming for a more efficient housing supply system [2]. - It suggests a dual approach to housing supply, integrating affordable housing with commercial real estate [2]. Urban Renovation Initiatives - The report mentions a goal of 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve urban living conditions [2]. - The renovation efforts are anticipated to release additional housing demand through appropriate monetary compensation schemes [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate firms such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group for potential investment opportunities [2]. - It also suggests monitoring quality developers and property management companies for investment prospects [2].

对于长城华西银行来说，四川银行将通过释放多维协同效应实现对其的高能级属地赋能：不仅能助力长 城华西银行提升对公贷款业务的议价能力，还将通过优化网点布局、提升运营效能，以及强化管理体 系、盘活人才资源等举措，全面推动其经营水平与盈利能力迈上新台阶，为长城华西银行注入发展新动 能。 打造"支柱型金融机构"，推动四川省高质量发展 长城华西银行实控权将花落四川银行。6月26日，中国长城（000066）资产公司及其全资子公司在北京 产权交易所挂牌转让所持长城华西银行合计40.92%的股权，挂牌价格43.32亿元。7月14日，国家金融监 督管理总局四川监管局发布公告，批复同意四川银行入股长城华西银行，并要求严格按照有关法律法规 的规定办理投资入股事宜。据了解，四川银行如完成对长城华西银行的入股后，将成为其第一大股东。 分析认为，此次入股对四川银行与长城华西银行的协同发展将形成双向赋能。其中，四川银行可进一步 强化省级城商行的综合竞争优势，加速规模扩张与区域布局完善；长城华西银行能够借助四川银行的省 级平台资源实现经营水平与盈利能力的提升。长远来看，这一整合更将为四川省构建本土"支柱型金融 机构"提供关键支撑，对夯实西部金 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001) 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 事项 7 月 14 日至 15 日，中央城市工作会议在京举行，总书记出席并发表重要讲话。我国曾召开过 5 次全国层 面的"城市工作会议"，但只有近两次（ 2015 年、 2025 年）是以中央名义召开。因此我们将本次会议重点 与 2015 年对比。 报告摘要 和 2015 年一样，本次会议出席人员规格高， 7 位政治局常委均出席，并由总书记发表重要讲话、总理作 总结讲话。 不变之二：时机类似，均是五年规划起点 均是新一轮国家级五年规划和城镇化五年部署的起点。一方面， 2015 年、 2025 年分别是"十三五""十五 五"规划的谋划之年，中央城市工作会议部署，或能为我们前瞻五年规划中城镇化建设，提供一个可观测窗 口。另一方面， 2015 年、 2025 年也同样是新一轮城镇化五年部署起点。上一次正值 2014 年《国家新型 城镇化规划（ 2014-2020 年）》发布次年，本次也是 2024 年《深入实施以人为本的新型城镇化战略五年 行动计划》发布次年。 变化之一：城镇化判断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a city duty-free shop in Guangzhou is expected to enhance the local economy, fill the gap in the city's duty-free offerings, and support the development of an international consumption center [1][2]. Location - The selected location for the duty-free shop at the International Financial Center in Zhujiang New Town has received positive feedback and is expected to drive consumer traffic due to its proximity to commercial hubs and tourist attractions [3][4]. Products - The duty-free shop will focus on promoting domestic brands and local specialties, aligning with national policies to support the sale of domestic products and enhance Guangzhou's cultural influence [5][6]. Operations - The operational structure of the duty-free shop involves a partnership between China Duty Free Group and local state-owned enterprises, which is anticipated to address challenges such as customer source diversification and resource integration [6][7]. Services - To attract international tourists, the city needs to enhance service efficiency and create a seamless shopping experience, including better integration with local tourist attractions and improved digital services for tax refunds [8][9].