尿素早报 2025-5-13 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投产，日产预计将维 持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显回落，复合肥库存 累库，三聚氰胺开工中性，工业需求弱势，农业需求有边际好转。尿素近期出口政策传言较多， 但目前仍未有确切官方消息。交割品现货1930（+20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差37，升贴水比例1.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.9万吨（-11.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面短期反弹，日产高位，库存再次累库，复合肥开工下行，农需边 际好转，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、出口政策预期 • 2、农需边际好转 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、库存再度累库 • 3、工业需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：供应端高日产，需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | ...

。技术面上突破60日均线压力，整数关口40000附近可能形成一轮高压。操作上建议，高空思路为主 免责声明 | | | 多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 38270 | -180 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 52252 | -15252 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1730 | -575 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 30040 | -90 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 40500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2050 | -620 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 33.5 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.34 | -0.05 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 35 | 0 | | ...

Group 1 - The major indices of the A-share market are expected to adjust after a period of optimism following favorable news announcements [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are highlighted for analysis, with a focus on their recent performance and potential adjustments [2][6] - The Shanghai 50 Index shows signs of adjustment with a notable reduction in trading volume, indicating insufficient upward momentum [5][8] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index has experienced a relatively strong performance but lacks significant trading volume, suggesting limited upward momentum [8] - Both indices are at critical turning points, with the potential for further adjustments in the near term [5][8] - The current A-share market environment allows for structural opportunities in individual stocks, provided the overall trend remains stable [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 12, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5866, up 1.80%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5550. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, most of the additional tariffs imposed on goods since April 2 have been cancelled, leading to a significant recovery in the commodity market. Ferroalloys have negative production profits, low production enthusiasm on the supply side, and rising port inventories of imported manganese ore. The overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month, and downstream hot metal production may peak and decline. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the market should be treated as oscillating. [2] - On May 12, the silicon - iron 2507 contract closed at 5636, up 1.55%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron rose by 50 to 5510. From January to April this year, the national railway completed 194.7 billion yuan in fixed - asset investment, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Ferroalloys have negative production profits, and the maintenance of large factories in Ningxia affects market sentiment. The downstream metal magnesium market price has rebounded, but the overall demand for steel is still weak. The market should be treated as oscillating. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese - Silicon) main contract closing price was 5,866 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; SF (Silicon - Iron) main contract closing price was 5,636 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan. - SM futures contract positions decreased by 13,582 to 621,718 hands; SF futures contract positions increased by 7,963 to 481,715 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon decreased by 8,516 to - 27,836 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon - iron decreased by 4,344 to - 25,370 hands. - The SM 9 - 5 contract spread increased by 12 to 80 yuan/ton; the SF 9 - 5 contract spread decreased by 10 to - 60 yuan/ton. - SM warehouse receipts decreased by 881 to 118,816; SF warehouse receipts decreased by 32 to 18,876. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 remained at 5,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,610 yuan/ton. - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 remained at 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,520 yuan/ton. - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 rose by 50 to 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,510 yuan/ton. - The manganese - silicon index average decreased by 105.42 to 5,497 yuan/ton; the SF main contract basis decreased by 104 to - 126 yuan/ton. - The SM main contract basis decreased by 108 to - 316 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block in Tianjin Port remained at 32 yuan/ton - degree; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) remained at 210 yuan/ton. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke remained at 1,070 yuan/ton; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) remained at 670 yuan/ton. - Manganese ore port inventories increased by 23.10 to 394.80 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.21 to 37.53%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate increased by 1.78 to 32.53%. - Manganese - silicon supply decreased by 10,780 to 172,025 tons; silicon - iron supply increased by 3,900 to 102,900 tons. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventories increased by 25,300 to 207,100 tons; silicon - iron manufacturers' inventories decreased by 0.99 to 7.37 million tons. - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon decreased by 1.17 to 15.44 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron decreased by 0.82 to 15.44 days. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon in the five major steel types decreased by 2,350 to 125,861 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in the five major steel types decreased by 224.10 to 20,336.30 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.29 to 84.64%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.08 to 92.11%. - The monthly crude steel output increased by 16.8722 million tons to 92.8414 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Ningxia Yinhe added maintenance for 2 45,000 - kVA silicon - iron furnaces, reducing daily output by 200 - 300 tons. - At the end of 2024, China's bond market balance was 177 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. Bond financing accounted for 40% of the incremental social financing scale, and the bond trading volume reached 460 trillion yuan. - At the end of 2024, the global public debt exceeded 100 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 93% of the global GDP, and is expected to rise to about 100% in 2030. - From 2012 - 2022, the average annual growth rate of the equity value of state - owned enterprises was 13.8%. [2]

下载图片 另存为PDF 分享 生猪周报 | 2025-05-12 【多空交织 猪价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月9日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、钢联数据显示，5月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+1.22%；涌益咨询数据显示，5月其样本点计划出栏量环比+1.98%； 3、主力合约（LH2509）震荡调整，收盘于13925元/吨，持仓量约7.13万手。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； 需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需 求对猪价的支撑有限；多头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续 出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：现货短期震荡，中长期不排除猪价新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/12 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 4/30 63.1 564 746 4555 6420 101.08 216.0 430 -37 86.2 77.7 103768 120 0.40 2025/0 5/06 62.2 555 748 4480 6420 99.19 193.0 372 36 85.8 72.5 102712 125 0.40 2025/0 5/07 61.1 562 768 4565 6490 113.99 206.0 342 12 85.8 72.5 99068 115 0.60 2025/0 5/08 62.8 555 778 4615 6505 93.88 223.0 328 -19 85.8 72.5 97814 115 0.50 2025/0 5/09 63.9 569 785 4715 6580 100.54 216.0 3 ...

研究所 预期影响 铁矿弱势震荡 ----国信期货铁矿石周报 2025年5月11日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 铁矿石本周弱势震荡，五一节后国内释放利好，铁矿石短暂冲高后回落，随着终端需求走弱，铁矿石 震荡下行。 | PB粉 | 755 | 790 | | --- | --- | --- | | 超特粉 | 619 | 815 | | 金布巴粉 | 713 | 859 | | 巴混 | 766 | 785 | | 麦克 | 735 | 799 | | 纽曼 | 748 | 807 | 品种 价格 仓单 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2 铁矿现货走势 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 | 品类 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 主力基差 | 58 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近，由于现货市场买兴升温，船用燃料油现货 溢价上涨，同时，全球最大加油枢纽新加坡的商业燃料油库存降至七周低点，进口量连续第二周下降； 中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为402.43美元/吨，基差为53元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为493.5美元/吨，基 差为190元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油5月7日当周库存为2412.9万桶，增加40万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近运行，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投产，日产预计将维 持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显回落，复合肥库存 累库，三聚氰胺开工中性，工业需求弱势，农业需求有边际好转。尿素近期出口政策传言较多， 但目前仍未有确切官方消息。交割品现货1910（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差28，升贴水比例1.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.9万吨（-11.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250512：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/12 今值 变动 | 指标 | 单位 | | | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,205.00 | -1.32% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 845.00 | 110.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 38.00 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 37,830.00 170.00 | 2.38% -880.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,150.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价 ...