泽连斯基与川普梵蒂冈会晤后，共和党联邦参议员格林厄姆表示："这场战争是由普京的野蛮入侵造成的，对普京领导下的俄罗斯的进一步制裁，我已获 得近60名两党议员的一致通过"。60名议员就意味着该项法案可以提交表决。 此前格雷厄姆提议的对俄罗斯二级制裁，即对购买俄罗斯能源国家征收500%的关税，获得两党各自25名议员的联署，这当然是配合川普对俄罗斯二级制 裁的威胁，而不是许多川黑解读的共和党内部反对川普的乌克兰政策。 实际上，现在尽快结束乌克兰战争，是共和党主流和部分民主党的共识。 卢比奥重申，俄乌战争没有军事解决方案，和平只能通过谈判实现，双方必须作出妥协。 这个制裁的厉害之处在于，在美俄仅剩下几十亿美元的贸易额度之外，凭空制造一个杠杆，因为这所剩的贸易额加100倍的关税都没有意义，最多两国脱 钩断链断交。 但二级制裁的威力在于，让俄罗斯和美国都有贸易的国家二选一，诸如印度巴西南非土耳其中亚国家这些俄罗斯相对友好的国家，自然要施加影响力给俄 罗斯：别逼我们，二选一的话你知道的，能源世界很多个国家卖，但美国市场，只有一家。 当地时间4月27日，美国国务卿卢比奥接受NBC采访时，再次警告乌俄双方，若无法尽快达成和平协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

美国总统特朗普第二个任期执政将满百日。据参考消息援引外媒报道，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间4 月29日在密歇根州举行集会庆祝执政100天，这将是他重返白宫以来首次举行集会。 而据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月27日，美国广播公司、《华盛顿邮报》以及益普索集团联合进行的一 项最新民意调查结果显示，特朗普的执政百日支持率为39%，创下过去80年来美国历任总统的最低执政 百日支持率。 这肯定是不会让特朗普高兴的数据，而特朗普恐怕很难把这一调查结果视作对他的又一次构陷或者攻 击。事实上，近期《经济学人》、YouGov、拉斯穆森公司、密歇根大学、昆尼皮亚克大学等美国主要 民调机构的调查数据，均给出了相似的结论。 就连一向亲共和党的福克斯新闻的独家民调也显示,尽管特朗普执政百日内推行的边境政策取得了超过 半数的支持率,然而，对他的经济政策表示支持的只有38%,支持其关税政策的更是仅有33%。 在3月份的首次国会演讲中，特朗普曾夸耀他第二次大选获胜是"几十年来从未见过的民意授权"。然 而，近期不同机构的调查结果都显示，除了无条件支持特朗普的"基本盘"外，他的民意支持率流失之 快，或许才是"几十年未见"的。当然，这个结果绝对谈不上 ...

Group 1 - Trump's tariff policy is pushing the US economy towards a cliff, while financier Ackman supports increased tariffs on China and prioritizes American interests [2] - Ackman argues that the US should not rush in trade negotiations, suggesting that China should be more eager to reach a compromise [2] - He claims that a 145% tariff on Chinese goods will accelerate the relocation of supply chains from China to countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico [2] Group 2 - Ackman believes that prolonged negotiations favor the US, stating that "time is a friend to the US and an enemy to China" [4] - Despite Ackman's support for high tariffs, the reality is more complex, as companies like Apple face challenges in relocating production to India due to a lack of supply chain infrastructure and higher costs [4] - A survey indicates that over 70% of US companies in China plan to move production out, but only 17% have taken action, highlighting the difficulties in supply chain relocation [10]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | OPEC+成员国建议加快提高石油产量，油价承压下行。OPEC+开启增产且有加速增产意愿； | | | | OPEC+部分成员国补偿性减产；近期美国豁免中国部分产品"对等关税"，关税战争缓和。 | | | | SC【485-505】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 液化气跟随油价盘整。关税扰动下，丙烷进口成本上升，但影响下降，主要体现在 LPG | | | | 仓单量相对充足；厂内和港口库存均上升；三大化工下游开工率均下降。PG【4350-4450】 | | L | 偏空 | 上游持续累库，产量 5 连增，供给充沛，需求逐步转淡，基本面偏弱，关注后续进口变 | | | | 动。中长期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。L【7080-7200】 | | PP | 震荡 | 停车比例上升，供需双弱，加权利润同比高位，关注 5 月 PDH 装置动态。中长期，装置 | | | | 投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7050-7150】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 春检力度不足，厂库增，社库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound due to new sanctions on Iran, compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members, and easing of the tariff war [1][2][3] - LPG is expected to rebound as the cost side provides support and the basis is at a high level [1][5][7] - L is expected to be weak as the device maintains high operation, upstream inventory accumulates, and there is pressure from new device production [1][9][11] - PP is expected to be weak with short - term abundant supply and long - term pressure from device production and falling crude oil prices [1][12][14] - PVC is expected to be weak as the falling cost of calcium carbide outweighs the decline in social inventory [1][15][17] - PX is expected to be weak as the improvement in supply - demand is limited and inventory is high [1][18][19] - PTA is expected to be weak with supply pressure relieved by planned maintenance but weakening downstream demand and high inventory [1][21][22] - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term shock adjustment as supply is reduced by planned maintenance and import decline, while demand may weaken [1][24] - Bottle chips are expected to be weak with increased supply, seasonal weak demand but good export prospects and rising inventory [1][25][26] - Glass is expected to be weak as it enters the delivery game period with increased delivery capacity and limited terminal demand improvement [1][27][28] - Soda ash is expected to be weak with increasing supply, stable demand, and accumulating inventory [1][29][30] - Asphalt is expected to rebound as the crack spread is high and the cost side (crude oil) rebounds [1] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 3.53%, Brent up 1.86%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members drive short - term price rebound, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars due to the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion. In the short - term, sell bull spread options, and focus on the range of 490 - 510 yuan for SC [4] LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 17, the PG main contract closed at 4480 yuan/ton, up 1.24% [6] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has converged but remains high, and the overall valuation is low. After the oil price rebounds, there is upward momentum [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long, or buy call options or sell put options, and focus on the range of 4450 - 4550 yuan [8] L - **Market Performance**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **Basic Logic**: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and the import situation varies. The agricultural film season is ending, resulting in weak short - term performance and long - term bearishness [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7100 - 7200 yuan [11] PP - **Market Performance**: The L - PP05 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread decreased by 38 yuan/ton [13] - **Basic Logic**: New PP devices have been put into operation, and there is pressure on product exports. Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term prospects are bearish [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan [14] PVC - **Market Performance**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton [16] - **Basic Logic**: New devices were put into operation in January. Although demand has a seasonal recovery, the falling cost of calcium carbide leads to short - term weakness [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and focus on the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan [17] PX - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 6865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6054 yuan/ton (- 50) [18] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 6000 - 6120 yuan [20] PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4310 yuan/ton (+ 80), and the TA05 contract closed at 4358 yuan/ton (+ 8) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Planned maintenance eases supply pressure, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4250 - 4330 yuan [23] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4315 yuan/ton (- 15), and the EG05 contract closed at 4279 yuan/ton (+ 8) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low, but downstream demand may weaken. Cost support is limited [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4080 - 4130 yuan [24] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade PET bottle chips in East China was 5600 yuan/ton (+ 180), and the PR main contract closed at 5596 yuan/ton (+ 248) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Device operation increases supply. Although it is the off - season for soft drinks, export is good, and inventory has increased [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 5520 - 5600 yuan [26] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price in North China increased, the futures price was weak, the main basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [27] - **Basic Logic**: The real - estate downturn still affects demand. Supply is low, demand has a seasonal recovery, and inventory has decreased. The delivery game suppresses the near - month contract [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 1130 - 1170 yuan [28] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was partially reduced, the futures price was weakly volatile, the basis fluctuated slightly, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30] - **Basic Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment. Supply increases due to device operation and new capacity, demand is stable, and inventory accumulates [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average [30] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not detailed in the content - **Basic Logic**: The crack spread is high, the cost side (crude oil) rebounds but lacks upward momentum, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan [1]

美国白宫：特朗普认为俄罗斯想结束乌克兰战争。 ...

2 0世纪60年代，正在影院业正急剧衰退之时，柯比做了一个有些冒险的决定——扩展业 务，不仅升级了影院规模，还与其他平台合作成立均等股权合资公司，做起电影发行业 务。到了7 0年代，Vill a g e Roa ds how已经开始自己生产电影。 何以陨落？ 作者 I 杨文静 报道 I 投资界PEdaily "欢迎来到真实的荒漠。" 多年后，这句《黑客帝国》里的台词还能如此应景——它的出品方之一、知名影视娱乐公 司威秀娱乐集团日前刚宣布了破产。这家成立于1 99 7年的好莱坞巨头，在拉扯一年多后 最终走向分崩离析。 或许你没听过威秀娱乐集团，但一定知道以下电影中的至少一部—— 《黑客帝国》三部曲、《小丑》、《了不起的盖茨比》、《乐高大电影》、《大侦探福尔 摩斯》 、《查理和巧克力工厂》、《疯狂的麦克斯：狂暴之路》、《十一罗汉》系列、 《野兽家园》、《萨利机长》等等，这些影片都有着威秀娱乐集团的身影。 眼下，威秀娱乐负债累累，一份流出的法庭文件透露，公司债务预计在5亿至1 0亿美元之 间。巨额债务无力偿还、日复一日的诉讼拉锯战.. .. ..这些看似是威秀娱乐自身的问题，却 也映照着好莱坞窘迫的另一面貌。 一个 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 盘整 | 美国对部分国家暂停加征关税，关税战争风险继续释放。美国掀起全球关税战，市场担 | | | | 忧宏观经济前景，市场不断释放关税风险；OPEC+计划增产幅度超预期。SC【450-480】 | | LPG | 盘整 | 成本端油价低位盘整，液化气震荡蓄势。关税风险继续释放，油价盘整；现货偏强，基 | | | | 差处于高位；供需面多空并存，港口去库，下游 PDH 开工率下降。PG【4400-4500】 | | L | 震荡 | 原油回落，现货跌价，厂库累库，国内反制裁对供给利多驱动有限，反弹偏空。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，逢高偏空。L【7100-7300】 | | PP | 震荡 | 主力移仓换月，厂库累库，反制裁加剧 PDH 装置供给收缩预期，短期区间震荡。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7100-7300】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 社库连续 5 周下降，氯碱成本支撑好转，盘面低位震荡。4-5 月常规春检陆续开始，盘面 | ...

中美之间的关税上调在两个月内已进行到第4轮，但两国领导人尚未举行会谈。特朗普还警告 称全部取消今后所有中美间的磋商，尚未找到解决贸易战争的方法。双方坚持强硬立场是有 原因的…… 中美两大经济体之间的关税斗争给全球经济蒙上了阴影。对美国而言，"失业率和通货膨胀率 双双上升的风险"（美联储主席鲍威尔）将加大。对中国而言，美国是中国最大的出口市场。 在内需持续疲软的情况下，如果出口放缓将对中国经济形成下行压力。 人民币面临的贬值压力正在加大。4月8日，人民币汇率为1美元兑7.34元，创下2023年9月以来 的新低。 中国商务部4月8日对特朗普进一步加征关税的意向表示反对。中国商务部新闻发言人发表谈 话称："如果美方一意孤行，中方必将奉陪到底"。并解释称，如果美国提高关税，中国将采取 反制措施。 中国媒体财联社等4月8日报道称，中国政府正准备对大豆等农产品大幅提高关税以及禁止鸡 肉进口等至少6项报复措施。 中美之间的关税上调在两个月内已进行到第4轮，但两国领导人尚未举行会谈。特朗普还警告 称全部取消今后所有中美间的磋商，尚未找到解决贸易战争的方法。 双方坚持强硬立场是有原因的。 特朗普政府聚集着很多对华强硬派，将中国 ...