上 市 公 司 交通运输 2025 年 06 月 21 日 深圳国际 (00152) —— 国企优质资源禀赋，物流园转型升级带来业绩弹性 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 7.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8527.07 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.15/5.68 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 185.72 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,443.74 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0949 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -13% 87% 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 HSCEI 深圳国际 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 郑 ...

Group 1 - The low-altitude logistics industry in China has seen a low level of investment and financing activity, with a significant increase in investment amount in 2021 to 680 million yuan, followed by a surge to 2.27 billion yuan in 2024 [1][8] - Investment rounds in the low-altitude logistics sector are primarily early-stage, focusing on A-round and angel financing, indicating that the industry is still in its developmental phase with many innovative companies seeking funding for technology development and market expansion [2][8] - The majority of financing events in the low-altitude logistics industry are concentrated in Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai, with Zhejiang leading at 7 events, followed by Beijing with 3 and Shanghai with 2 [6][8] Group 2 - The primary focus of investment in the low-altitude logistics industry is on drone delivery, with several significant financing events recorded from 2016 to 2025 [8][9] - Investors in the low-altitude logistics sector are predominantly capital organizations, accounting for 92% of the investment, with notable investors including Sequoia China and Matrix Partners [5][8] - There are numerous industry investment funds related to low-altitude logistics, although no private equity funds specifically for low-altitude logistics have been identified [12][8] Group 3 - Vertical acquisitions to expand business areas have become mainstream in the low-altitude logistics industry, with several notable mergers and acquisitions recorded from 2016 to 2025 [15][8] - The overall investment and merger activity in the low-altitude logistics industry remains low, with a concentration of investments from capital institutions primarily in Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai [8][16]

Group 1: Logistics Infrastructure Development - The YTO Express Northern Headquarters Phase II project in Langfang, Hebei, has increased its daily processing capacity from 6 million to 12 million packages since its launch at the end of last year [1] - The Shijiazhuang International Land Port has established a convenient international land logistics channel, allowing foreign trade goods to be declared on-site and directly exported via the China-Europe Railway Express [2][3] - The Hebei province has been recognized for its logistics infrastructure, with several cities selected as national backbone cold chain logistics bases and postal express hubs [5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth - The logistics sector in Hebei is projected to contribute significantly to the province's economic growth, with a reported increase in the added value of the commercial logistics industry to 733.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [8] - The express delivery business volume in Hebei reached 9.54 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [8] - The establishment of the "Ring Capital One-Hour Fresh Agricultural Product Circulation Circle" has allowed for efficient distribution of agricultural products, with daily transport volumes accounting for over half of the market share in Beijing [4] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The Hebei province is developing a comprehensive supply chain service platform called "Jicheng Tong" to support the growth of local industrial clusters, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency for enterprises [8] - The Hebei Runwo Smart Logistics Industrial Park has improved raw material delivery times from 7 days to just over 3 days, enhancing inventory turnover rates by 50% [7] - The integration of logistics services with local industries is being emphasized, as seen in the establishment of a full-chain system in the Gu'an International Trade City, which has attracted over 70 logistics companies [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 Langfang International Economic and Trade Fair showcased an efficient global supply chain logistics system, exemplified by fresh Norwegian salmon arriving within 24 hours of being caught [1] - The fair took place from June 16 to June 20, coinciding with China's major e-commerce platforms' "618" promotional event, which significantly increased online shopping volumes and put the logistics system under peak operation [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the total social logistics volume in 2024 reached 360.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [1] Group 2 - The "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Social Logistics Costs" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council aims to lower the ratio of social logistics costs to GDP to around 13.5% by 2027 [2] - The plan emphasizes the importance of reducing social logistics costs to improve economic efficiency, highlighting the potential for significant reductions compared to individual enterprise cost control [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments launched a plan to accelerate the development of intelligent supply chains in key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale, and retail [2] Group 3 - The "Key Cases for Reducing Social Logistics Costs" were published, featuring 20 selected examples from over 200 global submissions, including Cainiao Group's "Global 5-Day Delivery" project [3] - The logistics and supply chain service market in China is evolving into a collaborative ecosystem characterized by "logistics channels + logistics hubs + industrial clusters," providing a comparative advantage over many developing countries [3] - The integration of intelligent technology in logistics is expected to accelerate the transition to intelligent supply chain services, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs across the logistics sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of logistics services during the 618 shopping festival, highlighting consumer expectations and the performance of various delivery companies, particularly JD Logistics, which leads in customer satisfaction and service quality [4][5][15]. Group 1: Consumer Expectations - During the 618 shopping festival, 71.6% of consumers participated, with JD Logistics having the highest coverage [4]. - The top three consumer demands for delivery services are speed, home delivery, and package safety, with 75.7% prioritizing "same-day/next-day delivery" [5][7]. - Advanced services like appointment delivery and cold chain preservation are considered supplementary rather than essential [8]. Group 2: JD Logistics Performance - 83.8% of consumers believe JD Logistics offers the fastest delivery speed during the 618 period, with a high overall satisfaction rate of 85.3% [8][12]. - In rural areas, 82.6% of respondents indicated that JD Logistics is the fastest delivery service available [12]. - JD Logistics excels in cold chain delivery, with 79.7% of consumers satisfied with its service for fresh produce, significantly outperforming competitors [15][19]. Group 3: Service Quality and Employee Stability - JD Logistics provides a seamless service for large appliances, with 89.8% of consumers recognizing its service quality during the 618 sales [19]. - The stability of delivery personnel contributes to consumer satisfaction, with 83.9% of respondents familiar with their JD delivery personnel [20][22]. - JD Logistics offers comprehensive employee benefits, leading to lower turnover rates and fostering trust between consumers and delivery personnel [23]. Group 4: Overall Impact on Logistics Industry - The article suggests that JD Logistics has established a complete service system that balances speed and quality, setting a benchmark for the logistics industry [24]. - The focus on both efficiency and customer experience is expected to drive the logistics sector towards continuous improvement, benefiting consumers in their daily lives [24].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry has become an integral part of daily life, with consumer expectations for delivery services focusing on speed, convenience, and safety during the 618 shopping festival [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumer Expectations - During the 618 shopping festival, 71.6% of consumers participated, with JD Logistics having the highest coverage [2] - The top three consumer demands for delivery services are speed, home delivery, and package safety, with 75.7% prioritizing "same-day/next-day delivery" [5][6] - Advanced services like appointment delivery and cold chain logistics are seen as supplementary rather than essential [6] Group 2: Performance of Delivery Companies - 83.8% of consumers rated JD Logistics as the fastest delivery service during 618, with high overall satisfaction [6][12] - JD Logistics received an 85.3% approval rating for its comprehensive service, outperforming competitors like SF Express and others [6][12] - In rural areas, 82.6% of respondents indicated that JD Logistics provided the fastest delivery service [10] Group 3: Cold Chain and Large Item Delivery - 79.7% of consumers who ordered fresh produce were most satisfied with JD Logistics for its speed and quality of service [13] - 89.8% of consumers recognized JD Logistics' service quality when purchasing large appliances, appreciating the seamless process of old appliance removal and new installation [17] - The stability of delivery personnel significantly enhances consumer experience, with 83.9% of respondents familiar with their JD delivery personnel [18][20] Group 4: Employee Stability and Customer Trust - JD Logistics has a lower turnover rate among delivery personnel due to comprehensive employee benefits, fostering a sense of community and trust with consumers [21] - The relationship between consumers and delivery personnel has evolved, leading to reduced communication costs and increased satisfaction [21][22] - The combination of fast delivery, quality service, and familiar delivery personnel has become a critical factor in consumer choice, differentiating JD Logistics from competitors [21][22]

Core Insights - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles has entered stages 1 to 10, with leading manufacturers expected to see a significant increase in order volumes, expanding application scenarios from express delivery to retail distribution [1][6] - Level 4 autonomous vehicles are accelerating their application in the logistics sector, primarily in last-mile delivery [1] Market Overview - The stock market size for urban distribution vehicles is approximately 30 million units (excluding three-wheeled vehicles), with annual sales between 3 million to 4 million units [2] - The annual revenue for urban distribution logistics is around 3 trillion yuan, covering various scenarios such as express delivery, fresh produce, and cold chain logistics [2] Cost Efficiency - The cost of unmanned delivery vehicles has significantly decreased, with prices dropping from over 1 million yuan in 2018 to below 100,000 yuan today, allowing for cost recovery within a year [3][5] - In last-mile delivery, labor costs account for over 80% of expenses, while in trunk logistics, labor costs are about 10%, highlighting the potential for cost savings through automation [2] Technological Advancements - The shift from a multi-lidar and camera setup to a more cost-effective vision-based system has contributed to the reduction in hardware costs, with a projected decline of over 80% from 2023 to 2025 [5] - The new technology approach enhances safety and adaptability in various weather conditions, making it suitable for logistics applications [5] Policy Support - Government policies, including road rights opening and supportive management measures, are facilitating the application of unmanned vehicles in logistics, accelerating the establishment of standards and regulations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The high cost of express delivery is significantly impacting fruit farmers, leading to a situation where logistics expenses exceed the selling price of the produce, thus threatening their income and harvest dreams [7][8][22]. Group 1: Current Situation - In Guangdong's Maoming, the cost of shipping 12 kilograms of lychee to Heilongjiang is 168 yuan, while the selling price is only 78 yuan, illustrating the issue of "the fruit is less expensive than the shipping cost" [7][8]. - Similar situations have been reported in other regions, such as Shandong, where cherries are sold for 20 yuan with a shipping cost of 50 yuan, and logistics costs account for over 40% of the sales price of Hainan mangoes sold online [9][10]. Group 2: Impact on Farmers - The high logistics costs are causing a "bumper harvest without profit" scenario for many farmers, as they struggle to cover shipping expenses [8][11]. - The disparity in shipping discounts between large and small farmers exacerbates the problem, with larger farmers receiving better rates, pushing smaller farmers into a more challenging market position [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Responsibility - Major express companies, such as SF Express, charge additional fees for fresh produce, which contrasts sharply with competitors like JD and postal services that do not impose such fees [13]. - There is a call for leading companies to take social responsibility and provide discounts to farmers, as the current pricing structure is unsustainable for rural economic development [16][18]. Group 4: Proposed Solutions - To address the logistics cost issue, the government should implement financial subsidies specifically for agricultural product distribution and establish a special fund for shipping cost subsidies [19][20]. - Introducing more market participants to break monopolies and increase competition could help drive down logistics costs, while express companies should also adopt policies that benefit farmers [21][22].

Core Insights - The company, Cainiao International, has achieved significant breakthroughs in its logistics and technology business, winning full-chain logistics projects with local leading and cross-border platform-level clients in multiple overseas markets [1] - There has been a notable increase in cross-border shipment volumes in regions such as Latin America and Asia-Pacific [1] - The company has accelerated its technological expansion overseas, securing multi-million dollar automation projects in the Middle East [1] - An announcement regarding a major development in the Middle East is expected next week from the company's official overseas account [1]

Core Insights - The conference themed "Moving Towards a Green Future" focused on the application of intelligent new energy heavy trucks in the express delivery industry, highlighting the latest advancements and future trends [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The postal and express delivery industry is actively promoting energy-saving and low-carbon transportation methods, with policies supporting the purchase and use of new energy vehicles [3] - By the end of 2024, the number of new energy and clean energy vehicles in Jiangsu's postal and express delivery sector is expected to reach approximately 7,000, with over 80% of newly added or updated vehicles being new energy or clean energy vehicles [3] - New energy heavy trucks demonstrate significant advantages over traditional fuel heavy trucks in cost control, environmental protection, and technological innovation [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - New energy heavy trucks help express companies reduce transportation costs and improve economic efficiency, with suggestions for enhancing purchase subsidies, tax incentives, and road access rights to lower operational costs [3] - The average monthly mileage of Shentong Express's mainline vehicles exceeds 30,000 kilometers, significantly higher than the social average of 9,000 kilometers, indicating improved loading rates and operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Future Projections - In 2024, it is projected that 364,200 new energy logistics vehicles will be added nationwide, three times the number in 2021, although the proportion of new energy urban logistics vehicles remains low [4] - Fuel costs currently account for 31.85% of the transportation cost structure in self-owned vehicle fleets, indicating a strong need for new energy vehicles to reduce logistics costs [4] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Shentong Express has become the first express brand in China to scale the application of new energy heavy trucks, with significant cost savings observed during trial operations [5] - The use of intelligent driving technology has led to a 67% reduction in collision warnings and a 75% reduction in braking instances per 10,000 kilometers, effectively lowering labor costs by 4% [5] Group 5: Collaborative Efforts - The conference served as a platform for industry stakeholders, including representatives from CATL, DeepWay, Huawei, and SAIC, to discuss battery performance, service refinement for the express industry, and strategies for transitioning fleets to new energy [5] - The ongoing application of new energy heavy trucks in the express delivery sector is expected to inject new momentum into the comprehensive green transformation of the logistics industry [5]