Group 1 - The current market environment is described as "tricky, uneven but full of opportunities," influenced by inflation pressures, debt sustainability concerns, and the dominance of tech stocks in earnings growth [1] - Inflation risks are anticipated to rise, with Goldman Sachs predicting core PCE to increase from 2.5% to 3.6% by year-end, although the market seems to view this as a one-time event [2] - The long-term inflation expectations have remained stable since spring 2022, indicating limited concerns about a long-term inflation recovery [4] Group 2 - Debt sustainability remains a concern, particularly with long-term interest rates, despite a recent easing in the 30-year rate [6] - The U.S. dollar faces challenges as it remains relatively expensive across various valuation models [8] - There is a notable divergence between the actual 30-year interest rates and the dollar's performance [11] Group 3 - The U.S. real estate sector presents a complex outlook, with long-term interest rate risks and a weak supply-demand dynamic posing threats, yet a long-term bullish trend indicates resilience [12] - Defense and nuclear stocks have shown significant gains, with Goldman Sachs' Korean defense stock basket up 127% year-to-date, alongside strong performances from European and Japanese defense stocks [14][16] - Tech giants are leading earnings growth, with the "Magnificent Seven" outperforming 493 other companies in this regard [18][20] Group 4 - There has been a significant change in capital expenditure among tech giants following the emergence of ChatGPT, with expectations for continued growth [23] - The gap between U.S. AI leaders and laggards is widening, following a pattern of "slow, slow, slow, then a rapid acceleration" in AI deployment and benefits [24] - Despite a surge in new issuance, companies are engaging in large-scale buybacks, indicating a strong repurchase power in the market [26] Group 5 - The global systemic trading community holds a moderate amount of index futures, suggesting speculative positions are not as strong as six weeks ago but are not yet a hindrance [28] - May witnessed the largest net buying of global stocks in history, indicating a potential extension of risk-taking by hedge funds [29] - Value storage tools, such as gold and Bitcoin, have performed well in terms of total return and Sharpe ratio, while U.S. equities have lagged behind global peers [30]

第一财经报道，2025年全球金融市场正面临历史性考验，美国国债到期规模突破9.2万亿美元，其中仅6月份到期量就达6.5万亿，相当于2024年全年到期量的 73%。这一数据直接揭示了美债危机的紧迫性，而美国内部的去美元化趋势更让这一问题雪上加霜。 截至2025年4月，美国国债总额突破36万亿美元，相当于每个美国公民负债超过10万美元，债务占GDP比重逾120%。2024年美国国债净利息支出高达8820亿 美元，首次超过军费开支，占全年财政收入的23.9%。这种依赖"借新还旧"的模式，使美国财政陷入恶性循环。2025年美债到期规模与2024年大致持平，但 短期国库券到期滚续压力显著高于以往，期限结构进一步偏短。若按现行利率展期，仅2025年债务利息支出就将突破1.17万亿美元，相当于美国2024军费预 算的1.32倍。 美元资料图 更严峻的是，美债市场正经历二战以来最深刻的投资者结构转型。截至2024年12月，外国官方持有美债占比已从2015年的45%降至32%，而美联储与美国国 内个人与机构投资者占比突破68%。这种变化导致美国本土机构的风险偏好与国债收益率形成倒挂，养老基金对10年期国债需求集中在3.5%~4 ...

《中国经营报》：美国加征关税后，全球金融市场出现了剧烈波动，你如何解读这种市场反应？ 邓志坚：目前，全球关税政策出现了明显的波动和调整。虽然多个国家与美国之间已经达成了初步的贸 易协议，但这些协议尚未完全落地，政策的不确定性仍在持续。这种背景下，无论是全球贸易还是金融 投资市场，都受到较大影响。投资者一方面面临方向判断困难，另一方面也滋生出更强的避险情绪，市 场短期内可能仍将维持震荡态势。 亚太市场相较于欧美市场而言，目前仍较为稳定。其中原因在于，美国提高关税对加拿大和墨西哥的冲 击尤为显著。加拿大对美出口占其总出口约70%，占其GDP的十几个百分点；墨西哥的比例则更高，对 美出口占比接近80%，对本国经济影响巨大。相比之下，欧元区对美出口仅占其总出口的15%—16%， 对GDP的影响在3%左右，这一比例与中国相近。然而，欧元区还面临地缘政治风险、内部选举变数以 及政党更迭等多重挑战，不确定性反而更大。 相较之下，中国所在的亚洲市场整体表现出更强的稳定性和韧性。中国在与美国的贸易关系中具备更大 的谈判空间，也拥有更多应对手段和政策工具。因此，在全球不确定性持续的背景下，亚太市场尤其是 中国市场，短期内受到的直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on the performance of gold and silver in the market, particularly in relation to the upcoming non-farm payroll report and its potential impact on prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold is experiencing strong momentum, while silver is showing signs of a comeback [1] - The potential influence of the non-farm payroll report on market dynamics is highlighted, suggesting it could further ignite interest in these precious metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A recent easing of the U.S. Treasury sell-off is noted, raising questions about whether the dollar will rebound as a result [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing U.S. debt crisis, highlighting that foreign investors hold over $8 trillion in U.S. debt, with significant reductions from countries like China and Japan [2][4] - China has reduced its U.S. debt holdings from a peak of $1.31 trillion in 2013 to $765 billion by March 2025, a decrease of 42% over 12 years [4] - The U.S. debt has reached nearly $37 trillion, with annual interest payments amounting to $1.2 trillion, which is a significant burden on the government's finances [14][16] Group 2 - The article notes that the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, is under pressure from former President Trump to lower interest rates to alleviate the debt burden, but Powell maintains the independence of the Fed [10][18] - The U.S. government is exploring the issuance of stablecoins as a potential solution to the debt crisis, which could become the largest buyers of U.S. debt by 2028 [21] - The increase in gold reserves by central banks, including China, signals a shift in global trust away from U.S. dollar assets, with China's gold reserves reaching 2,294 tons [6][4] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the growing international use of the Chinese yuan, with cross-border transactions in yuan accounting for 54.3% of the total in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing the dollar's 41.4% [8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes between the U.S. and China are influencing global economic stability and investor confidence [6][24] - The article suggests that the U.S. must take effective measures to rebuild its fiscal credibility and restore global investor confidence to address the debt crisis [24][27]

目前我国是美债第三大持有国，很多人认为这是美国巨大的"把柄"，于是就有了美债武器化的说法，但要真正将美债"武器化"，其实比我们想象 的还要难。 美国财政部5月16日公布的数据显示，3月份日本、英国、加拿大和比利时等国家均增持美国国债，其中英国的持仓规模增至7793亿美元，超过了我国的7654 亿美元，这也导致英国超过我国成为美债的第二大持有国。 其中，日本3月增持了49亿美债，持仓规模为11308亿美元，依然是美债最大海外持有国；而英国持仓规模增至7793亿美元，是美债第二大持有国。 反过来，我国则在3月份卖出了189亿美元的长期美债。 很多人据此解读为，我国正在抛售美债，以此来逼迫美国在贸易问题上就范。从时间点来看，这的确对得上，但189亿美元的抛售，算得上武器化吗？ 在我看来，这当然不算是"武器化"。 从时间线来看的话，这的确说得通。5月12日，中美两国瑞士日内瓦发表联合声明，把互相施加的关税大幅下调，并且设定了90天的关税谈判期。 有一部分人认为，特朗普之所以会同意大幅下调关税，其中一个重要原因就是美债面临的尴尬局面。 从结果上来看，这是对的。但事实上，我国还真没有大规模抛售美债。 在2019年之前，我 ...

智通财经6月6日电，前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏表示，在与美国的贸易谈判中，日本是否真的可以利 用其持有的巨额美债作为讨价还价的工具令人怀疑。 ...

前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏：日本是否真的能在与美国的贸易谈判中利用持有的巨额美债作为讨价还 价的工具是值得怀疑的。 ...

贸易不确定性升温， 汇率节奏未变 华泰期货研究院 2025年06月06日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 数据来源： Wind 华泰期货研究院 4 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示Call端波动率与Put端持平。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率持续下行，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 8 3M 2025/06/05 3M 2025/03/28 3M 2024/12/31 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250604（%） 20250528（%） 20250507（%） (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元 ...

Group 1: US-China Relations - The recent phone call between the Chinese leader and US President Trump indicates an attempt to ease tensions in US-China relations, with a focus on trade issues [4][5] - The call follows a previous agreement on a 90-day trade truce reached on May 12, but the US continues to impose discriminatory measures against China, complicating negotiations [4][5] - Both sides expressed a desire to manage conflicts and seek new communication methods to avoid serious confrontations [5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's trade war aims to protect US industries and reduce trade deficits, but it has led to significant capital flight from US markets and increased volatility [3] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, raising concerns about the government's ability to service this debt amidst the pressures from the trade war [3] - The call reflects Trump's urgent need to stabilize US-China economic relations to find a way out of the current economic challenges [3][6] Group 3: Taiwan Issue - The Chinese leadership emphasized the importance of the US handling the Taiwan issue carefully to avoid escalating tensions [4][5] - The US has reiterated its commitment to the One China policy, indicating a willingness to respect China's sovereignty [5][6] - The Taiwan issue remains a sensitive topic that could impact the broader US-China relationship [4][5]