[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250603 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.从合约货与工业企业利润的关系，寻找库存去化与订单景气的方向——资产配置周报 （2025/05/26-2025/05/30） ➢ 2.抢出口有支撑，但强度相对温和——国内观察：2025年5月PMI ➢ 1.美国4月PCE出炉 ➢ 2.特朗普称美国钢铁进口税提高至50% ➢ 3.工业和信息化部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度 ➢ 4.美国延长对中国 ...

美国5月ISM制造业进口指数录得39.9，为2009年以来最低水平。ISM出口订单指数降至五年最低的 40.1。 ...

【TM奥义前瞻】黄金震荡蓄势！美元多头控盘，英镑还须"忍"字当头 相关链接 黄金深陷震荡泥潭，多空双方激烈拉锯；美元多头掌控盘面，英镑反弹屡遭压制......点击查看各资产基 于订单流的关键位... ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1 - The article discusses the intense competition between bullish and bearish positions in the gold market, indicating a significant struggle for dominance among traders [1] - It highlights the importance of analyzing order flow signals to predict market trends for June, suggesting that real-time analysis is crucial for making informed investment decisions [1] - The content encourages viewers to subscribe for ongoing insights into commodity trends, emphasizing the value of staying updated in a volatile market [1]

2022年与信天游果业合作社合作的500吨订单项目中，国元期货捐赠权利金15.91万元，最终赔付31.595 万元，赔付率126%，是合作社自缴费用的6.95倍。 2023年试点"订单农业+期货"模式，与3家深加工企业签订1500吨保底收购协议，农户订单履约率达 98%，户均年增收3200元。该模式带动延长县苹果地头价稳定7.5-8.5元/公斤，较周边非项目区域溢价 10%—15%。 为解决"果贱伤农"的困境，国元期货连续多年在延长开展价格险项目，累计承保面积2.4万亩，覆盖产 量3.6万吨，总保费580万元(其中国元期货出资120万元)，项目累计向960户果农赔付780万元，赔付率达 134%，有效对冲价格波动风险。 针对农户"靠天吃饭"特性，国元期货设计"价格险+产量险"组合产品：苹果收入险项目累计承保面积 1000余亩，覆盖产量1500吨，覆盖150余户果农。价格端和产量端累计赔付60万元。苹果收入险项目使 产量、价格得到双重保障，切实做到了为当地果农"保收入"的目的。使当地苹果种植经营环境更加稳 定，提高了种植积极性，促进了产业良性发展。 二、"订单+期货"打通产销双通道 一、"保险+期货"构建价格安 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold has stabilized and rebounded, suggesting a potential bullish trend following the breakout of resistance levels [1] - There is an emphasis on monitoring order flow for entry signals, which could provide insights into market movements and trading opportunities [1]

【要闻速递】 美元指数（DXY）在亚洲交易时段延续前一日上涨势头，短暂触及99.80，为本周高点，市场多头情绪 受到改善的经济数据提振，但涨势缺乏强劲动能。 支撑本轮上涨的主要因素，是周二公布的美国耐用品订单和消费者信心数据均好于预期。 "这次反弹表明美国家庭对未来收入与就业状况的预期显著改善，从而提振整体经济信心，"一位不具名 的市场分析师指出。 尽管短线数据利好美元，但更广泛的财政与货币政策背景却可能压制其上涨空间。 【黄金走势分析】 黄金周二震荡下行，当天最高3350，最低3285，日线收阴于3300，日线看金价受阻于中轨，今重点看 3280能否下破，破位下看3260和3250，四小时线，呈区间震荡，小时线，震荡，今早反弹3315后下跌至 3292，目前仍处于震荡，综述日内先看区震荡，下方看3280，上方看3320和3350，区间不破继续震荡。 周三(5月28日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3301.80美元/盎司，最高触及3315.45美 元/盎司，最低触及3291.45美元/盎司，截止发稿金价报3307.09美元/盎司，涨幅0.19%。 据市场调查显示，美国4月耐用品订单下滑6.3% ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that U.S. durable goods orders excluding defense fell by 7.5% in April, with the previous value revised from 10.4% to 7.5% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that U.S. durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.2% in April, which was above the expected decline of -0.10% [1] - The previous value was revised from 0.00% to a decrease of -0.40%, indicating a significant adjustment in prior data [1]