（数据来源： 东方财富Choice数据，银河证券，国泰黄金ETF联接A成立以来收益168.88%，华安黄金易ETF联接 A成立以来收益158.39%，工银黄金ETF联接A，前海开源黄金ETF联接A成立以来收益73.05%，易方达黄金ETF联 接A成立以来收益145.36%，博时黄金ETF联接A成立以来收益144.98%，华夏黄金ETF联接A成立以来收益 65.29%，统计截至2025/4/10， 具体基金的相关风险、基金经理变更等情况详见各基金法律文件及公告，历史数据 不代表未来，不作投资推荐） 4月11日，伦敦现货黄金价格成功突破3200美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。 20世纪70年代以前，全球货币体系事实上以黄金为"锚"，美元盯住黄金，西方主要货币盯住美元。 1971年8月布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，宣告了黄金挂钩时代的终结。 而自彼时起算，黄金已经经历了9轮完整的大行情，平均持续32个月、平均涨幅172%。 不难发现，在历史的长河中，每一轮黄金牛市的助推因素都与其时代风云紧密相扣、各有不同。 但无论时代如何变迁，本质上都没有背离与黄金自身特征息息相关的三条真实定价逻辑：第一，黄金不 生息，但持有美国国债有利息 ...

【机构观点分析】 瑞达期货：全球去美元化趋势逐渐显露凸显黄金配置价值 申银万国期货：政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金 混沌天成期货：长期的美元信用和债务逻辑驱动仍旧驱动贵金属的强势 FXStreet：避险需求推涨金价但降息押注下降限制涨幅 世界黄金协会：经济不确定下黄金需求激增目前金价的涨势基本面更加稳固 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞达期货表示，市场避险情绪支撑金价强势运行并续创历史新高。市场对于美债供应担忧加剧叠加美国 政府信用风险攀升，美元反弹动能受到抑制，全球去美元化趋势逐渐显露，凸显黄金配置价值。受消息 面驱动，市场风险偏好抬升，流动性紧缺边际缓解，助推金银价格上行。黄金在降息预期提振以及央行 持续购金的支撑下或维持其强劲上行趋势，中长期逢低布局逻辑不变。 申银万国期货表示，政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金。此前特朗普所谓"对等关税"把金银等贵金属 排除在关税之外，令由持续性的价差套利导致的现货挤兑缓解，呈现价格的回补。此外市场进一步计价 衰退逻辑，全球动荡加剧。后续市场的主要指引来自于市场形成对特朗普关税政策更为明确的预期、各 国的政策反制／谈判走向、美国经济是否会显露更多实质性的衰退信号、美联储政策 ...

通俗解释，研究团队开发了一种 聪明又高效的AI算法框架 。这个系统通过"看图识路"（图神经网络）加上"会下棋的策略"（蒙特卡洛树搜 索），能够自动学会 如何更快、更智能地"剪枝"电路逻辑 ——就像帮电路减肥，让它运行得更快但不丢性能。 白寅岐 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 芯片设计是现代科技的核心， 逻辑优化（Logic Optimization, LO） 作为芯片设计流程中的关键环节，其效率直接影响着芯片设计的整体 性能。 然而，传统逻辑优化算子由于存在大量无效和冗余的变换，导致优化过程耗时较长，成为制约芯片设计效率的主要瓶颈。 为解决这一挑战，中科大王杰教授团队（MIRALab）和华为诺亚方舟实验室（HuaweiNoah'sArkLab）联合提出了 基于神经符号函数挖掘的 高效逻辑优化方法 ，显著提升传统关键逻辑优化算子运行效率 最高达2.5倍 。 论文已被ICLR 2025接收。 研究团队提出了一种 创新的数据驱动的电路神经符号学习框架——CMO 。 在实际测试中，CMO能让关键算法运行效率提升最多2.5倍，也就是说， 原来跑10分钟的任务，现在4分钟就搞定了 。这个技术已经被集成 进华为自研 ...

2025年04月09日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周二贵金属价格继震荡；消息面，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示近期不会实施关税豁免并确认周三对 | | | | | | | | | | | 金 | | 别国征关税的计划；加拿大宣布对美汽车的对等关税也于周三生效。经济数据方面，美国石油协会（API）数 | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 据显示，4 月 4 | 日当周，美国 原油库存 +603.7 万桶；关税紧张局势加速了企业 | | | API | -105.7 | 万桶，之前一周 | | | | | | | | 债券的抛售，信用利差已达 472 基点，距离 基点的危险阈值仅一步之遥。库存数据方面，印度 | | | | 500 | | | | 2 | 月白银 | | | 进口减至 250 | 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].

全球主要新兴市场储备资产中货币黄金比重为8.9%，远低于发达市场的平均水平26.9%。考虑到过去5年全球金矿产量均值约为3600吨， 如果新兴市场将储备资产 中的黄金比重提高到与发达市场相同的水平，黄金的需求将增加1.5万吨，意味着发展中国家外汇储备调整将消耗约4-5年的黄金产量 。如果这一过程在未来十年间 逐步实现，分摊到每年的增量需求约为40%。 极端情形二：加密资产崩塌 比特币或将面临量子计算革命以及政策变化带来的"纸牌屋"危机 。一方面，量子革命倒计时令比特币技术基石松动。谷歌2024年发布的 Willow量子芯片，实现 105量子比特运算，量子计算破解比特币的可能性逐渐增加。另一方面，比特币还可能受到政策变化的影响，例如特朗普发行个人数字货币的流动性冲击。总结来 看，如果量子计算出现突破或者政策出现明显变化，可能会对比特币的价值基础产生显著影响。 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 2023年12月，我们发布《 金：百年、十年、今年 》从定性层面十年维度战略看多黄金，强调当前黄金所处的时代背景更类似于1785-1800年以及1925-1940年这两 个百年一遇的全球秩序重构时期。2 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任 何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 沪铜价格从年初至今一度强势走高，这一过程有悖于逐级调减的美联储降息预期，也有悖于商品整体回落的趋势，从指数的结构上看——若无贵 金属和有色板块的相对强势支撑，商品板块或已经跌至2020年12月以来新低，因此理解铜价定价逻辑或至关重要。 开篇之问：铜在定价什么？ 通常我们把铜的定价拆解成基本面的部分和宏观定价的部分，基本面方面的独立性在于产业的供应定价，扰动包括不限于工人罢工，不可 抗力停工，不可逆的品位下行，开采的长周期性（或8-10年前的资本开支）；宏观方面的定价依托于经济的现实和预期扰动，敏感于全球 通胀预期，经济周期等。近年来，宏观定价仍旧占据主导位置，基本与美债实际收益率联动，近期经典的向上定价是2024年2月- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges faced by Eli Lilly, particularly in the context of its Alzheimer's drug and GLP-1 medications, highlighting the volatility in its stock price and the shifting dynamics in the pharmaceutical market [1][4][25]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's drug, Donanemab, showed a cognitive decline relief rate of 35%-40%, but concerning side effects were noted, with 1 in 4 patients experiencing brain edema [3]. - The oral GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron, demonstrated a 14.7% weight loss, but its performance was overshadowed by the injection alternatives [3]. - In Q3 2024, Zepbound's sales were $1.26 billion, significantly below market expectations, while Mounjaro's sales of $3.11 billion also missed targets [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The GLP-1 market is experiencing a 45% industry growth rate, but Eli Lilly's sales growth has stalled, raising concerns among investors about real demand versus inventory adjustments [4][6]. - The competition in the diabetes and weight loss drug markets is intensifying, with rivals like Novartis and Pfizer increasing their presence [9]. - The potential for price reductions due to Medicare negotiations poses a risk to profit margins, with historical data indicating significant price drops in similar scenarios [14][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Eli Lilly faces a critical juncture; if Q1 2025 data does not show improvement, market confidence may wane [7]. - The company must navigate three key challenges: proving that demand ceilings have not been reached, maintaining technological advantages, and justifying valuation premiums [10]. - The anticipated market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $200 billion by 2030, but competitive pressures and pricing strategies will significantly impact this projection [12][23]. Group 4: Pricing and Market Penetration - Historical trends in insulin pricing suggest that each new competitor could lead to a 3%-5% decrease in price levels within the GLP-1 market [18]. - The article highlights that while the market for GLP-1 drugs is expected to grow, the actual sales may not align with penetration rates due to competitive pricing pressures [23]. - Eli Lilly's pricing strategy will need to balance between maintaining market share and managing profitability amid increasing competition [14][22].

在人形机器人、AI智能硬件、电动车需求趋势火爆之际，头部公募基金公司另辟蹊径，选择在"卖铲子"领 域进行举牌操作。 东岳集团在2024年中期业绩报告中披露，截至2024年6月30日，集团实现营业总收入72.6亿元，同比增长 0.87%。净利润达到3.08亿元，同比增长8.38%，毛利率为19.83%。中国市场贡献了84.84%的收入，而国际市 场中，巴基斯坦、越南、尼日利亚、土耳其的收入占比分别为0.34%、0.36%、0.36%、0.48%。在地区分布 上，西亚中东地区的主要客户为阿联酋，收入占比为1.20%；美洲市场的核心客户为美国，收入占比为 1.47%；日本和韩国的收入占比分别为2.19%和2.35%；欧洲的收入占比为2.70%。 香港联交所最新交易信息显示，易方达公司日前在港股市场增持新材料龙头——东岳集团，后者为全球最大的 PTFE材料供应商，由于PTFE材料相比之前人形机器人所使用的PEEK材料，具有更低的成本和更高的性能， 因此被视为推动人形机器人赛道实现大规模量产的关键替代材料。 易方达基金此次南下举牌PTFE材料供应商，或是通过"卖铲子"的逻辑来规避机器人赛道拥挤问题，与此同 时，部分专注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logic behind the establishment of initiator funds has shifted from being a "guaranteed establishment" option in a sluggish market to a "quick way" to seize market opportunities as the market heats up [1][5]. Group 1: Initiator Funds Overview - Initiator funds have become a primary focus for many fund companies in 2023, with 41 initiator funds established by March 8, covering various popular sectors [3][4]. - The establishment of initiator funds allows fund companies to successfully launch products even in low market participation periods, with a lower threshold for issuance [4][6]. Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - Many fund companies are now using initiator funds to quickly establish positions in the market, with some funds achieving significant returns shortly after establishment, such as a 24.86% increase for the China Europe Hang Seng Technology Index fund [5][6]. - The rapid establishment of funds, such as the Kai Stone Yuanxin fund, which had a fundraising period of only two days, reflects the urgency to capitalize on market opportunities [3][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Despite the advantages, initiator funds face a "wide entry and strict exit" constraint, with many funds failing to meet the scale requirements and subsequently facing liquidation [2][6]. - A significant number of initiator funds established in previous years are at risk of liquidation if they do not reach the required scale of 200 million RMB by the end of their three-year evaluation period [6][7].