以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 摘要 时值年中，各主流机构纷纷更新对2025年的经济预测，IMF、OECD、WB、Fitch Ratings等近期均更新了经济预测，那么对 大宗商品特别是工业品需求意味着什么？有什么指引？我们都知道供给是计划的，相对确定的，而需求是相对变化的，不确定 的，随预期而动。那么在目前已知供给情形之下，需求预期而动，大宗走向何方？我们就大宗领头羊原油、铜等品种尝试给出 一些指引。 结论： 从原油和铜的全球经济增长内涵的消费增速上来看，原油分歧远小于铜的分歧。原油消费分歧0.8%，而铜消费分歧 1.3%。也就是说从目前的价格表现上来看，原油定价的充分性远大于铜的。 从价格上来，铜依然维持在相对高位，而原油趴在谷底。 小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 从交易的角度上来看，两者分歧也很大，无论是偏离度分位数还是净持仓分位数、波动率； 从基本面的角度来说，原油拿的是戴维斯双杀的牌，无论是价格还是交易数据上已经充分定价了这一事实， ...

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者江露 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士 打造专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 江露 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 2025年初以来金属市场走势明显分化，黄金受美元走弱及避险情绪影响持续拉涨，近期白银呈现补涨态势，铜铝等有色品种价格 亦保持韧性。而国内定价的新能源品种及黑色板块重心下移，跌幅超过10%。 从有色板块基本面来看，2021年至今有色铜资产年度均价持续走高，2025年至今铜均价维持在77000元/吨以上，近几年铜铝库 存维持相对低位反应出有色基本面较强，价格呈现出较强韧性。 结论：近几年黄金持续拉涨对有色价格中枢形成支撑。与此同时，当前金银比达到90以上，白银相对黄金仍被低估。 目录 | 一、年初以来金属市场走势明显分化 | | --- | | 二、2021 年至今有色铜资产年度均价持续走高… | | 三、当前有色品种供需结构与 2018年的差异分析 … | | 四 谷红 | 正文 一、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the suspension of underground mining operations at the Kakula mine due to a seismic event, with updates on recovery efforts and production guidance adjustments from Ivanhoe Mines, in which the company holds a stake [1][2][3] Group 1: Mining Operations Update - The Kakula underground mining operations were suspended due to a seismic event, but the pumping capacity has stabilized the underground water level [1] - Mining activities in the western section of Kakula are expected to resume on June 7, 2025, while the eastern section will restart as soon as possible, focusing on developing access to new mining areas [1] - The new mining area development in the far eastern section is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2026, with pumping operations in the eastern section starting in August 2025 and concluding in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Guidance - The first and second phase concentrators at the Kamoa-Kakula mine are operating at approximately 50% capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles [2] - As mining operations in the western section resume, the concentrators will see an increase in ore supply, with production ramping up for the remainder of 2025 [2] - The production guidance for 2025 has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper metal in concentrate, reflecting known and unknown risks and uncertainties [3] - The target for approximately 600,000 tons of copper production in 2026 has been withdrawn by Ivanhoe Mines [3]

Group 1 - CITIC Metal's affiliate, Ivanhoe Mines, reported progress on the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where underground operations were paused due to a seismic event [1] - The Kakula underground mine's dewatering capacity has stabilized, with work in the western section resuming on June 7, 2025, while the eastern section will restart mining operations soon [1][2] - New mining areas in the far eastern section are expected to be developed by the second quarter of 2026, with dewatering operations in the eastern section anticipated to begin in August 2025 and complete by the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The first and second concentrators at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine are operating at approximately 50% capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles [2] - As mining operations in the western section resume, the concentrators will see an increase in ore supply, with production ramping up for the remainder of 2025 [2] - The smelter on-site is expected to begin operations in September 2025, with the first batch of anode copper produced in October [2] Group 3 - Preliminary investigations indicated that the seismic event originated from a high rock extraction rate area in the eastern section of the Kakula mine, leading to stress redistribution and yielding deformation in the mining pillars [3] - The production guidance for 2025 has been updated to 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate, reflecting known and unknown risks and uncertainties [3] - Ivanhoe Mines has withdrawn its target of approximately 600,000 tons of copper production for 2026 due to the seismic event [3]

一、行情回顾 周三晚，沪铜期货2507合约下跌0.77%收于78570元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 SMM预计2025年6月中国阳极铜企业整体开工率将环比上升1.57个百分点至54.56%，其中矿产阳极铜企 业开工率为74.60%，环比上升1.91个百分点；废产阳极铜企业开工率为45.03%，环比上升1.41个百分 点。（仅指非自用阳极铜部分） 5月底卡莫阿生产扰动加剧原料矛盾，铜精矿目前延续供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏损加深，40%企业均将 不同程度减产，预计预计6月国内电解铜产量环比下降0.72万吨降幅为0.63%。 6月11日，上期所铜期货仓单33373吨，环比上个交易日减少373吨。 三、机构观点 新湖期货：近期LME库存持续下降，LME市场BACK结构扩大；目前COMEX与LME价差仍在1000美元 以上，美国市场虹吸效应仍在，LME大概率将延续降库，LME现货偏紧。6月国内消费进入淡季，5月 下旬以来国内小幅累库，出口窗口打开，炼厂积极布局出口，短期基本面对铜价支撑减弱。但中期来 看，铜矿短缺的形势依然较为严峻；铜消费在电网高增长提振下韧性较强。铜基本面偏强。短期受 LME现货偏紧影响，铜价或震荡偏强运行， ...

t 1）富观。美国民影曾轻农就业人数为13.9万高于预期但低于前值，平均时薪年率为3.9%高于预期和动值，但是美国5月港费端通胀67红年率为2.4%民于预期但高于前值，特朗普政府关 投资策略 | ?）上游：第金矿业旗下:莫明=卡库拉钢矿画侧正在排水目或于6月下旬复产但东侧排水或持续至9月《25年计划矿产钢62-58万吨》，加拿大Tack Besources矿业6月2日宣布旗下智利 | | --- | | 亿azmen de Jackacol 1 off 因Sater (此现机械故障碍Queberrada Blancerð (发生无关的阿拉)障而均需停产维修约1个月，印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司（Freeport: Mölbkar）3月 | | 17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨就精矿但将被征收更高出口税，钢装有由演下位于厄瓜多尔的状拉多钢矿二期15万吨产能绩于26年下半年投产，巨龙钢矿新增二期20万吨/日扩建工程 | | 或于25年底投产，ACC Netal s旗下Gediktrepe多金属矿山的硫化钢矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度设产目初期年产量为2.5万吨，或使国内6月钢精矿生产《进口》量环比增加（减少 》 | ...

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 06 月 12 日 铜：库存减少，限制价格回落 铜基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。特朗普关税大限将至，欧盟据称 拒绝妥协，拟推迟贸易谈判至 7 月之后。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，秘鲁政府首次承认存在大规模的非正规铜矿开采，并警告称，在不久的将来，高价格可能会 导致这种活动增加。（SMM） 加拿大铜矿商 Hudbay Mineral 表示，由于野火继续肆虐，该公司已发布疏散通知，已停止在马尼托 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,290 | 0.52% | 78570 | -0.91% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,647 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the archaeological findings in Ningxia Guyuan, particularly the bronze artifacts from the Spring and Autumn period and the Warring States period, which reflect the cultural and technological exchanges between nomadic and agrarian societies in ancient China [1][12][39]. Group 1: Archaeological Discoveries - Large-scale burial sites from the Spring and Autumn and Warring States periods were discovered in Ningxia, providing unprecedented physical evidence for understanding nomadic societies [2]. - The Yanglang burial site revealed a clear image of a pastoral and militaristic community through the unique burial practices and artifacts found [3][4]. - The artifacts, including over 743 bronze items, predominantly consisted of weapons and horse-drawn vehicle equipment, indicating a strong reliance on pastoralism [4][11]. Group 2: Cultural Significance of Artifacts - The bronze artifacts displayed a blend of cultural influences, showcasing both Central Plains weapon designs and Eurasian artistic elements, reflecting a dialogue between different civilizations [1][26]. - The practical design of the bronze weapons and tools emphasized functionality over decorative elements, aligning with the survival strategies of nomadic peoples [5][15]. - Animal motifs in the bronze artifacts served as cultural symbols, illustrating the deep connection between nomadic tribes and their environment [20][21]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The findings indicate that the nomadic tribes were not only influenced by Central Plains technology but also adapted and innovated their own tools and weapons to suit their needs [30][34]. - The bronze and iron composite weapons found in the burial sites signify a transitional phase from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age, highlighting the technological evolution in the region [38]. Group 4: Exhibition and Public Engagement - The exhibition at Anhui Suzhou Museum showcases these artifacts, providing insights into the life of ancient nomadic peoples and the cultural exchanges that occurred in the region [40]. - The exhibition is open from May 18, 2025, to July 16, 2025, allowing the public to engage with the historical narrative presented through these artifacts [41].

Core Insights - The company has experienced continuous revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with a 24.9% increase in revenue from 2022's 365 million to 2024's 621 million, while facing net losses for three consecutive years, with a net loss of 13 million in 2024 [2][3] - The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reaching 38.28% in 2024, an increase of 8.41 percentage points from 2022 [2] - The company attributes its losses to high stock-based compensation from equity incentives and increased R&D investments [2] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue has consistently increased, with a notable rise in electronic chemical products due to acquisitions of two subsidiaries, which contributed to higher gross margins [2][3] - The surface engineering equipment business has shown significant growth, generating revenues of 140 million and 181 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively, accounting for 28% and 29% of total revenue [4] Customer Concentration - The company has a high customer concentration in its equipment and components business, with two related parties contributing 68% of the revenue in 2023 and 46.59% in 2024 [5] - A new non-related customer, established in April 2023, quickly became a significant client, indicating strong market interest in the company's technology [5] Asset Sale and Financial Impact - The company sold 100% of Guangzhou Zhilan New Materials Co., Ltd. for 25.8 million, generating an investment income of 15.24 million, which positively impacted its net profit [3] - The high appraisal value of the sold asset was attributed to significant property value appreciation [3]

Core Insights - Copper prices have rapidly declined, dropping over 1% in a single day, raising questions about the impact of U.S.-China trade agreement expectations on the market [1] - Analysts are examining whether changes in inventory levels could serve as a key factor in supporting copper prices [1] Group 1 - The rapid decline in copper prices indicates market volatility and potential shifts in demand or supply dynamics [1] - The expectations surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement are influencing market sentiment and could affect future pricing trends [1] - Inventory changes are being closely monitored as they may provide critical support for copper prices amid fluctuating market conditions [1]