锡周报报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-7-11 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-7-11 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 | 美 | 国 | 总 | 统 | 特 | 朗 | 普 | 宣 | 布 | 美 | 国 | 将 | 铜 | 征 | 收 | 的 | 关 | 自 | 年 | 起 | 生 | 效 | 对 | 进 | 税 | 月 | ） | 日 | （ | 1 | 口 | 5 | 0 | % | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | ， | ， | 。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

上篇文章里，我们讨论了中产家庭的支出结构，使得他们抗风险能力较差。本篇将分析中产家庭的收入结构的脆弱性，以及他们在极端困境下的处置方 式。基于此，我们也可以做一个风险程度的自测。 双薪，还是双锁？离不开两份工资的中产家庭 正如我们在上篇中提到的，中产父母被拖入了一场竞价大战。他们一睁眼就是把孩子送进好生活的拍卖会：房子、学前教育项目、名牌大学，都是正在叫 价的稀缺品。 于是，中产家庭的收入几乎全被投入到让孩子保持社会地位的开销里。中产父母被锁定，他们没办法主动退出职场。任何一方停工，中产门票就可能作 废，孩子的位置、父母的体面瞬间打回原形。 这就出现了一个悖论：正当越来越多女性拿到大学文凭、创下前所未有的劳动参与率时，她们的家庭财务状况却未见得比过去好多少。她们的职业成就， 只是中产家庭勉力维持现状的必需品。 1948—2024美国25—54岁女性劳动参与率变化情况（%） 这里还有一个更微妙的心理陷阱：中产家庭知道工资增加是件好事，却忽视了这笔收入的隐性成本。但这也是无奈的选择，毕竟中产阶级门票价格正在不 断上涨，一个人工作已经难以负担。 那么，古尔丹，这个代价到底是什么？ 钢索上的中产家庭，没有了财务安全网 ...

Group 1 - International crude oil prices are under pressure, with WTI trading around $66.90 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous trading day, and Brent crude futures closing at $68.64, down 2.21% [1] - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over global economic growth stemming from President Trump's tariff policies and the critical turning point in OPEC+ production policies [1][3] - The upcoming trade measures set to take effect on August 1 have raised investor worries about the potential suppression of global trade activity and economic growth, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to further ease voluntary production cuts in September, with eight member countries anticipated to gradually restore production capacity, indicating a potential oversupply in the global market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy is increasing borrowing and investment costs, indirectly suppressing oil demand by limiting the expansion willingness of energy-intensive industries [3][4] - The combination of high interest rates and impeded global trade growth is creating a "double pressure" scenario on oil prices, leading to a potential short-term downward risk [4]

本文系转载自 深交所互动易视频号。 本文不构成野村东方国际证券的任何投资建议、推介或宣传。野村东方国际证券没有独立核实过被转载文章的 内容，该文章中的任何观点不代表野村东方国际证券观点，野村东方国际证券不对投资者依赖本文的任何内容 而采取的行动承担任何责任。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 向上滑动阅览 本文转自深交所互动易微信视频号。 本文转载自： 深交所互动易 免责声明 ...

意大利财政部长：如果发生加密货币危机，必须考虑传染风险。 ...

本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2509 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.7% | 2 | 3.9% | 1 | | fg509 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.1% | 5 | 2.9% | 3 | | si2509 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.6% | 5 | | sc2508 | 2.1% | 4 | 3.1% | 1 | 2.2% | 11 | | ag2508 | 2.0% | ...

周五（7月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金高位震荡，美国总统特朗普宣布新的关税，加剧对贸易战的担 忧，多头再次崛起，日内金价一度站上3340美元关口，4小时仍于3280-3360区间内震荡，后市有望上探 3340-3350。 【消息速递】 摘要周五（7月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金高位震荡，美国总统特朗普宣布新的关税，加剧对贸易战的 担忧，多头再次崛起，日内金价一度站上3340美元关口，4小时仍于3280-3360区间内震荡，后市有望上 探3340-3350。 当前金价正处微妙平衡点：地缘政治风险与美元强势形成角力。若特朗普持续升级贸易战，金价有望突 破3350美元关键阻力位；反之若美联储释放鹰派信号，可能引发短线回调。投资者需密切关注7月21日 的美加谈判最终期限，这或将成为决定黄金行情走势的下一只"黑天鹅"。 【技术分析】 日线级别上:布林带运行收窄，金价在布林带中轨附近运行，多头锋芒正胜。3350美元/盎司遇阻，3280 美元/盎司为关键支撑。MACD指标死叉收口运行绿柱收量，RSI指标超卖反弹在54-50区间运行，多头 动能偏强，金价反弹需求明显。 4小时级别上:布林带运行平缓，黄金价格触及布林带上轨后目前在 ...

"养老贷"的可行性在于其利率低于缴存养老金的回报率。经测算，若趸交9万元、领取15年，养老金的 静态测算年化回报率约为3.84%。但这种由国家社保体系福利带来的较高回报，绝大部分却以"养老 贷"利息的形式流入银行，投保人仅能获得少数，这实际上造成了社保福利的损失。此外，"养老贷"得 到当地社保部门的大力支持，但若社保资金的筹集由银行贷款提供，这既涉及合规性问题，也可能引发 道德风险。 出品：21财经客户端南财快讯工作室 从办理条件来看，"养老贷"大多要求本地户籍并持有社保卡，客户需年满59周岁至65周岁之间，贷款年 限最高可达15年且"年龄+贷款期限"不超过75岁，金额上限大多为9万元，利率则限定在3.1%至3.6%之 间。退休后，用每月领取的养老金分期偿还贷款本息。 从操作机制看，放款直达账户和自动扣款的方式，可以称为"无痛"提高养老金额。针对借款人身故后的 贷款资金处理方式，一部分银行也给出了保险等解决途径。由银行为借款人购买商业保险，借款人若身 故，由保险公司赔付(结清)剩余贷款。 据每日经济新闻报道，以年缴费6000元、总计缴费15年为例，最多可贷款9万元，未来每月可领取养老 金808.48元，在归还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Metro Supply Chain Co., Ltd. has faced significant challenges in its attempts to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its third unsuccessful attempt in five years, reflecting a decline in its business performance and market confidence [1][2]. Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, Metro Supply Chain's total revenue decreased from 27.82 billion to 24.86 billion, with net profits fluctuating at 332 million, -471 million, and 253 million respectively, indicating instability [3]. - For the first seven months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.82 billion, a slight decline of 1.0% year-on-year, with operating profit halved compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in four segments: retail distribution solutions, food service and distribution solutions, welfare gift solutions, and wholesale goods, with retail distribution solutions accounting for approximately 59.6% of total revenue in the first seven months of 2024 [3][4]. Client Dependency - Metro Supply Chain heavily relies on the Wumart Group, with sales to its top five clients constituting 64.0% of total revenue, and sales to Wumart alone accounting for over 96% of this amount [4][5]. Financial Health - The company has a high debt-to-asset ratio, consistently above 100%, and has seen its cash reserves drop significantly, with only 5.37 billion remaining as of July 31, 2024, a decrease of 64.4% year-on-year [7][8]. - The financial costs related to bank loans and non-trade payables have consumed a significant portion of its gross profit, with interest costs accounting for 67.0% and 73.5% of financial costs in 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively [7]. Investor Pressure - Various venture capital and private equity investors, including IDG Capital and Tencent, are under pressure to exit their investments, with a potential redemption obligation of up to 15 billion USD if the company fails to go public by June 28, 2025 [8][9].