经过多年发展，水泥行业已形成完整的产业链。得益于原材料、能源及工艺技术装备的可控性，产品出 口占比不高，供应链较为稳固，受地缘政治及关税政策直接影响有限。加之水泥行业自律工作基础坚 实、产业升级思路清晰，水泥行业未来仍大有可为。 中国水泥协会日前发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》（以下简 称《意见》），明确将优化产业结构调整，进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"，实现高质量发展。 水泥行业供需矛盾突出由来已久。受下游地产、基建需求偏淡影响，水泥产量持续下滑。国家统计局数 据显示，2024年，全国水泥产量18.25亿吨，同比下降9.5%，产量创15年最低值。今年前5个月，全国累 计水泥产量6.59亿吨，同比下降4%，其中5月份水泥产量同比下降8.1%。水泥市场延续弱势运行趋势。 面对当前形势，行业自律"反内卷"和市场整合去产能不仅是推动行业健康发展的关键，更是水泥行业的 长期改革任务。 "'反内卷'需要价格自律。水泥行业'反内卷'的核心是反价格内卷。"中国水泥协会副秘书长李琛认为， 水泥行业的价格自律机制，多年来起到了正反两方面作用。一方面为行业稳定和高质量发展提供了重要 ...

周一开盘，现货黄金高开8美元，突破3360美元/盎司，日内涨0.28%。 现货黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are on the rebound, suggesting a turning point in the market [4][12] - The fundamentals for thermal coal remain favorable, with a current price of 632 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal, reflecting a 3.8% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY/ton earlier this year [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant increases, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1350 CNY/ton, a 9.76% rise from the previous low of 1230 CNY/ton [4][20] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY/ton, potentially exceeding 700 CNY/ton if favorable fundamentals persist [4][12] - Coking coal is more influenced by market dynamics, with current prices indicating a state of overselling, and supply-side tightening expected due to policy changes [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The report highlights a slight decrease of 1.08% in the coal sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is 11.48, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.18, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Market Insights - As of July 11, the inventory at ports has decreased by 19% from the highest level of 3316.3 million tons earlier this year, currently standing at 26.89 million tons [3][4] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased to 2.148 million tons, driven by seasonal demand [4][19] Coking Coal Market Insights - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal prices, with futures rising from 719 CNY to 913 CNY, a cumulative increase of 27% [4][20] - The average daily pig iron production remains high at 2.408 million tons, although there are signs of potential declines due to seasonal factors [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for investment in the coal sector, identifying four main lines for stock selection: dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][13] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][13]

比特币突破119000美元，续创历史新高，日内涨近2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

比如， 近日，由 吉林化纤集团 联合 东华大学、中材科技、时代新材、上海电气、北京玻钢院 等9 家科研院所及行业龙头企业共同开发的" 大丝束碳纤维及复合材料规模化制造关键技术与大型风电叶 片产业化 "科研项目保障了碳纤维原丝均一稳定与高效连续制备，攻克原丝高效预氧化碳化技术瓶 颈，推动高性能35K及以上大丝束碳纤维实现稳定量产；建立大丝束碳纤维拉挤工艺仿真模型，同步 开发专用高效拉挤工艺与装备，实现拉挤板材的高性能批量稳定生产；创新建立了材料—结构—气动 一体化叶片优化设计方法，开发结构体模块化预制与壳体一体化成型工艺，构建全尺寸叶片性能精准 高效测定方法，成功研制出系列120米以上超长大型风电叶片。 经鉴定，该项目研发技术达到国际先 进水平，特别是大丝束碳纤维及其拉挤板材制备技术已经达到了国际领先水平 。 此外，氢能储运（高压IV型瓶）、全球风电叶片复苏、光伏热场碳碳复材、低空经济和国产大飞机 供应链等领域的应用渗透，碳纤维后续市场可以期待。需要警惕的是，产能"洪流"来袭。 说明： 本文部分素材来自于 百川盈孚、吉林化纤、碳纤维及其复合材料技术 及网络公开信息，由作者重新编写，系作者个 人 观 点 ， 本 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 上周行业大幅上涨，产业链价格坚挺上行 相关研究： 《产业链上游价格坚挺，下游新增需求限》 20250706 《上周行业反弹，产业链价格维持弱势》 20250629 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 7 17 60 绝对收益 10 24 76 -20% -5% 10% 25% 40% -20% 5% 30% 55% 80% 稀土磁材(长江)指数行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 ❑ 本周精矿价格普涨，镨钕价格在需求端集中招标叠加供给收紧双支撑下 上行，镝价上涨、铽价小幅上调，钕铁硼价格先涨后稳 ❑ 投资建议 1 行业一周涨跌幅统计时间区间为 2025/07/07 至 2025/07/11，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2012/02/17 至 2025/07/11，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc. ...

韩国媒体13日报道，该国近期持续遭遇热浪，白菜、西瓜、萝卜等农产品价格大幅上涨，一个西瓜均价 逼近3万韩元(约合156元人民币)。韩国政府推出一系列稳物价措施，并向市场投放储备白菜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing suspension of sales by major liquor companies, such as Sichuan Tuopai Shede and Shui Jing Fang, reflects a broader effort to stabilize pricing and address the issues of excessive inventory and price wars in the Chinese liquor industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Tuopai Shede announced a suspension of orders for its core product, Tuopai Tequ 2.0, effective July 10, with a date for resuming orders to be announced later [1]. - Shui Jing Fang implemented a full-channel suspension of its core product, Zhen Niang Ba Hao, and is tightening control over e-commerce channels to enforce pricing policies [1][2]. - Shui Jing Fang has taken strict measures against violations, including fines and termination of partnerships, to combat cross-regional sales and maintain pricing integrity [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing unprecedented inventory pressure, with a shift in consumer drinking habits leading to increased market segmentation [4]. - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, have adopted similar suspension measures to stabilize prices, indicating a collective industry response to the challenges faced [4]. - The high-end liquor market is seeing price fluctuations, while competition in the mid-range segment is intensifying, prompting companies to shift from a "channel pressure" model to a "sales-driven" approach [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the suspension measures remains uncertain, as reducing market supply may alleviate downward price pressure but does not address the underlying inventory issues [5]. - The long-term recovery of the liquor industry hinges on restoring consumer confidence, balancing manufacturer interests, and optimizing product structures [5]. - The industry faces the challenge of achieving a smooth transition during this adjustment period while seeking new growth drivers [5].

20年间经历了多次产业周期，让原奶产业很受伤。 独立乳业分析师宋亮告诉第一财经记者，目前乳制品消费市场仍在低谷期，预计今年国内原奶市场的供 需关系仍在调整中，进程有待观望，因此原奶企业面临的经营压力仍存，市场能否恢复平衡，主要还得 看行业去产能的情况。 原奶行业深度调整终于见底。 7月13日中国奶业协会举办的2025中国奶业发展战略研讨会上，国家奶牛产业技术体系首席科学家李胜 利表示，中国原奶产业已经触底，但反转还需要一年左右。 而反复多次的产业周期影响让中国奶牛养殖业损失惨重，行业也在重新审视奶业的发展方式。 行业反转仍需时日 近3年来，国内原奶产业进入深度调整期，原奶价格持续下滑。从2024年底开始，国内就在关注本轮原 奶行业的调整进程，外界普遍认为2025年原奶行业将迎来拐点。 但农业农村部最新价格显示，今年7月第一周内蒙古、河北等10个主产省份生鲜乳平均价格为3.04元/公 斤，同比下跌6.5%，仍没有明显回升的迹象。 在李胜利看来，目前我国奶业已经进入本轮产业周期的底部，但反转需要1年左右的时间。 国家奶牛体系此前走访发现，2025年4月份，国内乳企喷粉的情况好于上年同期。2025年5月中旬开始， ...