预期内盈利承压，拥抱稳定、可持续、可预期的回报确定性 银行业2025年一季报综述 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 研究支持： 李禹昊 A0230123070008 联系人： 冯思远 A0230522090005 2025.5.6 投资要点 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 一季报再度出现营收利润双双下滑（营收、归母净利润分别同比下降1.7%、1.2%），除去预期内息差下行和非息基数压力对营收 的拖累外，拨备反哺力度略低于预期是利润未能如期维持正增的主因。其中，国有大行和个别股份行业绩表现低于预期，城农商行 基本上符合预期。 ◼ 开年以来贷款增长平稳符合预期，从区域上看江浙、成都等地景气度依旧较高，而重庆则成为"后起新星"：1Q25上市银行贷款增 速较年初持平7.9%，其中国有行维持约9%锚定行业增长、股份行低位降速至约4%、农商行受中小客群需求转弱拖累增速降至6.7%， 城商行总体上信贷景气度更优，除江浙一带和成都地区外，重庆银行贷款增速超16%（其中对公超30%）成为投放"新星"。 展望 全年，加征关税对银行的影响主要 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual attributes of bills, highlighting their role as effective indicators for assessing credit conditions due to their high-frequency data updates [1][2] - Bill interest rates are influenced by both funding and credit attributes, with the former primarily determining the pricing center as the market for interest rates becomes more liberalized [2][31] - The report identifies five dimensions to observe bill interest rates, including seasonal trends, supply-demand imbalances, arbitrage behaviors, policy-driven changes, and yield curve expectations [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Bill Quantity and Price Indicator System - Bill interest rates are categorized into direct discount rates, transfer discount rates, and re-discount rates, with the transfer discount rate becoming the pricing center as market reforms progress [11][12] - The main sources for publicly available bill quantity indicators are the central bank and the Shanghai Bill Exchange, reflecting the financial system's support for the real economy [19][23] 2. Determinants of Bill Interest Rates - Dual Funding and Credit Attributes - The funding attribute of bills is linked to their characteristics as short-term financial assets, impacting liquidity management through transfer discount and repurchase operations [31][32] - The credit attribute of bills is rooted in regulatory frameworks, with bills historically classified as credit assets, thus directly influencing credit scale adjustments [34][35] 3. Relationship Between Bill Interest Rates and Money Market Rates - Bill interest rates generally move in tandem with repo rates and certificate of deposit rates, but can diverge under certain conditions [3][10] - The report notes that during critical assessment periods, such as month-end and quarter-end, bill interest rates exhibit significant fluctuations due to regulatory constraints [50][48] 4. Observing Bill Interest Rate Credit Attributes - Seasonal patterns in bill interest rates are noted, with higher rates typically observed at the beginning of the year and lower rates towards the end [3][4] - The occurrence of "zero interest" scenarios is highlighted, indicating severe supply-demand imbalances in the bill market [3][4] 5. Regulatory Policies Impacting Bill Quantity and Price - New regulations are pushing bills back towards their payment settlement attributes, which may alleviate seasonal fluctuations in quantity and price [5][6] - The report discusses the implications of capital regulations on the supply-demand dynamics of bills, suggesting a potential easing of conflicts in the bill market [5][6]

Macro Overview - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 16,178 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with 10,870 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and 5,308 billion yuan on Wednesday [3] - The central bank will also release social financing and credit data at unspecified times this week [3] Industry Dynamics - On May 7, the U.S. EIA will release oil inventory data and a monthly short-term energy outlook report [5] - On May 8, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce interest rate decisions, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [5] - On May 9, several Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, will deliver speeches [5] - On May 7, China will report its foreign exchange reserves for April [5] - On May 9, China's General Administration of Customs will release April import and export data, and the Ministry of Finance plans to issue 71 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for the first time [5] - On May 10, China will publish monthly reports on CPI and PPI [5] - On May 6, Elon Musk's Grok 3.5 model was unveiled [5] - On May 7, Lenovo will hold its 2025 Innovation Technology Conference in Shanghai [5] - On May 8, the 27th Beijing Science and Technology Expo will take place at the National Convention Center [5] - On May 9, the 25th China Retail Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center [5] - On May 7, BeiGene (06160.HK) will announce its earnings [5] - On May 8, SMIC (00981.HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) will release their earnings, and "Hushang Ayi" (02589.HK) will be listed [5]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape among listed city commercial banks has significantly changed in Q1 2025, with Beijing Bank maintaining its leading position in asset size, while Jiangsu Bank leads in revenue and net profit [1][2] - The total number of listed city commercial banks with assets exceeding 2 trillion yuan has increased to six, including Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [1] - Strong credit growth has driven asset expansion and supported revenue growth for major city commercial banks [1][3] Group 1: Asset Size and Rankings - As of Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank's asset size reached 4.46 trillion yuan, closely trailing Beijing Bank by 98 billion yuan [1] - Ningbo Bank's asset size increased to 3.40 trillion yuan, surpassing Shanghai Bank's 3.27 trillion yuan [1] - Nanjing Bank approached 2.8 trillion yuan, while Hangzhou Bank exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the revenues of Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Shanghai Bank were 223.04 billion yuan, 184.95 billion yuan, 171.27 billion yuan, 141.90 billion yuan, and 135.97 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.21%, 5.63%, -3.18%, 6.53%, and 3.85% respectively [2] - Jiangsu Bank's net profit reached 97.8 billion yuan, followed by Beijing Bank at 76.72 billion yuan and Ningbo Bank at 74.17 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Credit Growth and Interest Income - The significant increase in credit issuance has led to a rise in net interest income for several city commercial banks, with Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Ningbo Bank reporting net interest incomes of 165.92 billion yuan, 77.52 billion yuan, and 128.35 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The year-on-year growth rates for net interest income were 21.94% for Jiangsu Bank, 17.80% for Nanjing Bank, and 11.59% for Ningbo Bank [3] - The strong performance in public loans was noted, with Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Nanjing Bank showing increases of 17.08%, 13.49%, 9.75%, and 8.75% respectively [2]

有效信贷需求不足，尤其是居民部门需求不足，使得我国银行业整体的信贷投放增速早已从此前的两位数 放缓至个位数。在这个大趋势里，有部分区域银行，得益于当地仍较强的经济活力，还是延续了较为稳健 的信贷投放增速——比如长三角的城商行们。 在这个活跃的经济区域，城商行梯队正在呈现出你追我赶的变化，资产规模座次变阵是最直观的：宁波银 行超越上海银行，坐上"包邮区"城商行资产总额的第二大交椅。 一季度"开门红"存贷高增推动资产总额稳健扩表，净息收入逆势飙升助推营收均正增，成了长三角城商行 们的共性表现。 具体看，江苏银行、宁波银行、上海银行截至一季末的资产总额分别是4.46万亿元、3.4万亿元、3.27万 亿元，分别较上年末增长12.84%、8.67%和1.37%。此外，站上两万亿元规模的两家城商行也保持均速扩 张，南京银行、杭州银行截至一季度末的资产总额分别达到了2.77万亿元、2.22万亿元，较上年末分别增 长6.71%、5.2%。 其中，江苏银行不仅是长三角城商行资产规模最大者，还是增速最高者。即便与全行业相比，该行近几年 的资产增速连续保持两位数也是比较罕见的。 推动各家银行资产总额大幅度扩表，是各自一季度"开门红 ...

总体来看，一季度全区社会融资规模稳步扩大，存贷款总量合理增长，信贷结构持续优化，融资成本稳 中有降。分部门看，住户贷款余额3867.63亿元，同比增长7.5%；企事业单位贷款余额6323.73亿元，一 季度新增90.52亿元。从期限看，全区中长期贷款余额6874.74亿元，一季度新增109.77亿元，占各项贷 款增量的48.0%，有力支持了我区重大项目建设和个人合理住房需求；短期贷款余额2490.00亿元，同比 增长5.8%，一季度新增151.06亿元，占各项贷款增量的66.1%，有效满足了企业的合理流动性融资需 求。 在信贷总量、政府债券以及银行承兑汇票持续增长的带动下，全区社会融资规模增势较好。一季度，全 区社会融资规模增量为486.91亿元，同比多增191.20亿元，金融支持实体经济力度不断加大。其中，对 实体经济发放的人民币贷款、地方政府债券融资、未贴现的银行承兑汇票增量分别占社会融资规模增量 的47.2%、28.3%和19.9%。据了解，截至3月末，全区个人非住房类消费贷款余额同比增长9.1%，明显 高于各项贷款增速，有效满足了消费领域的融资需求。工业及基础设施贷款投放力度较大，一季度，全 区工业贷 ...

今年，美国的对冲基金疯狂地做空私募贷款机构，而且已经赚了17亿美元。 5月4日，据媒体报道，今年以来，美国的七家最大直接贷款机构（如阿波罗全球管理公司、Ares资管公 司和Blue Owl资本公司）正面临空头投资者的强力冲击。据S3 Partners LLC的数据，空头投资者从这些 机构的押注中已经获得了17亿美元的账面收益。 "如果我们真的陷入经济衰退，另类资产管理公司的风险将非常大。如果公司收入下降，现 金流下降，这意味着杠杆率上升，自由现金流就会消失。" 有人悲观就有人乐观。穆迪评级私募信贷团队副总裁Clay Montgomery表示，商业发展公司（一种私人 贷款机构）杠杆率低，就算经济衰退要减记投资组合，也有资本缓冲。但从股价表现来看，资产管理公 司的股价今年普遍疲软。 PIK贷款的高估问题 除此之外，还有一个不容忽视的潜在风险——直接贷款的估值。国际清算银行去年指出，向美国证券交 易委员会报告数据的私募信贷基金中，只有40%使用第三方评估。 管理620亿美元资产的Adams Street的Jeffrey Diehl和Bill Sacher上周在一份报告中写道： 私募贷款机构的运作模式通常是为中小企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about further economic deterioration have led U.S. private credit investors to sell assets at significant discounts, with some transactions occurring at half the asset's face value [1] Group 1: Discount Trading and Investor Behavior - Private credit market investors are selling fund shares at notable discounts, starting from 10% and dropping to as low as 50% [2] - The current sell-off is characterized as a proactive risk-hedging behavior by investors rather than a result of forced liquidations or severe liquidity crises [2] - There has been no significant deterioration in credit quality observed so far, but concerns about expanding discounts may arise as economic conditions worsen [2] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - The U.S. private credit market has rapidly expanded to a size of $1.6 trillion, raising concerns about asset quality during economic downturns due to a relatively lax regulatory environment [2] - Issues with "loose underwriting" in private credit loans could lead to high single-digit default rates for high-yield debt and potentially double-digit default rates for private credit [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Positioning - The current situation is viewed as more severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to higher inflation pressures that could amplify economic shocks [4] - The potential economic downturn is compared to the bursting of the internet bubble, with expectations of a similarly severe impact [4] - Oak Tree Capital is cautiously positioning itself in the credit market, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on larger investment opportunities as they arise [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 15% increase in net income and a 14% increase in earnings per share for FY 2024 [20] - Revenue remained relatively flat, with expenses increasing by about 2%, leading to a 3% decline in adjusted pre-provision net revenue [20] - Return on assets improved from 77 basis points in the prior year to 88 basis points in FY 2024 [20] - The efficiency ratio increased due to flat revenue and higher expenses, while charge-offs and credit quality remained strong at 10 basis points, significantly better than the industry average [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's deposit franchise showed strong performance, with average non-interest bearing deposits as a percentage of total deposits higher than the top quartile in the industry [21] - Credit quality remained robust, with net loan losses staying very low, better than the top quartile [22] - The commercial real estate portfolio grew at a disciplined rate, with loss rates close to zero over the past five years [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's capital position is about the median of its peer group, expected to strengthen as depreciation in the securities portfolio accretes back into capital over time [26] - The bank has consistently ranked among the best in customer relationships, receiving numerous awards since 2009 [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on serving local communities and maintaining strong credit quality, with a particular emphasis on middle-market businesses [19] - The management is closely monitoring the economic environment, especially regarding tariffs and potential recession impacts, while aiming to support customers through challenging times [28] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the year ahead despite concerns regarding the economy and potential impacts from tariffs [28] - The company aims to maintain its strong credit culture to weather any economic challenges that may arise [23] Other Important Information - The bank's performance in FY 2024 reflected a recovery from the previous year's challenges, including the impact of bank failures on funding costs and net interest margins [20] - The bank's management structure is locally oriented, enhancing its ability to serve community needs effectively [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the commercial real estate portfolio? - Management noted that while there are concerns in the commercial real estate sector, particularly in office and multifamily segments, they do not anticipate material losses from their portfolio, which has been managed conservatively [24] Question: How does the bank plan to address potential economic downturns? - The bank intends to stay close to its customers and provide support during challenging times, leveraging its strong credit culture to navigate uncertainties [28] Question: What are the results of the recent shareholder votes? - All director nominees received over 97% approval, the appointment of Ernst and Young as auditors was approved by approximately 98%, and the executive compensation resolution received about 95% approval [30][31]

这个假期我没去旅游，工作是一方面，另一方面是跟几位老师约了假期见见，平时大家都忙，这其中就包括银行的几位信贷老师。 在我的理解里，过去大半年信贷老师们应该都过得不错。 从去年9月开始全国范围的限购门槛降低，让大量刚需涌入市场。以上海为例，从10月到12月是连续3个月的每月2万套以上二手住宅的成交，翻过年来又 是单月2.6万套二手住宅的成交，包括我的贷款老师也抱怨单太多。 但让我没想到的是很多事情都不能细看。 银行订单暴增的背后，当我和银行老师们坐下来面对面聊的时候，才发现去年跟他们聊的那些难——什么开单量砍半、逾期、永远完不成KPI——都不算 什么。 所以最近银行信贷老师又怎么了？ 01 "开单量起来了，但我的收入更少了。"这是大宁某位信贷经理的经历。 2023年到2024年年初他的收入确实很低，原本的基本工资+业务提成，变成了只剩基本工资，但现在他的工资是上海最低基本工资。 从去年9月到今年3月，他所在支行的个人按揭业务确实变多，但分摊到他这里的单子只多了10%～20%。另外，这些合同的贷款金额并不高，总价和贷款 成数都偏低，而且利率清一色3%开头，利润不高。所以他在忙完3月之后仔细算了下收入，结果令他大吃 ...