Core Insights - The ongoing battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold market is intensifying, particularly in light of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The analysis highlights the increasing volatility in gold orders, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [1] - The potential impact of the Federal Reserve's decisions on gold prices is a focal point for investors [1] Group 2: Order Flow Signals - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing order flow signals to gauge market trends and investor behavior [1] - Live streaming sessions are being conducted to provide real-time insights into gold order flows and market reactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the gold market, highlighting a recent rebound in prices after hitting a low of 3300 during the US trading session, raising questions about whether a temporary bottom has been reached and how to position for short-term trading opportunities [1] Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing increased volatility as traders react to price movements [1] - A recent low of 3300 was observed, followed by a recovery, indicating potential market dynamics at play [1] - The article suggests that there may be a phase of consolidation or a temporary bottom in gold prices, prompting discussions on short-term trading strategies [1]

Group 1 - Ningbo Marine triggered trading disclosure conditions due to price fluctuations, with diverse buying positions observed [1] - The leading buyer, Guotai Junan Securities, purchased 36.48 million yuan, with a 46% probability of the stock rising in the following three days [1] - UBS Securities and Dongfang Caifu Securities also appeared among the top buyers, with respective purchases of 20.73 million yuan and a high activity level [1] Group 2 - The selling side is characterized by a concentration of foreign institutions, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan collectively selling 48.05 million yuan [1] - Guotai Junan Securities also led in selling, with a net sell of 37.06 million yuan, indicating a dual-direction operation [1] - Market analysis suggests a divergence in institutional funds regarding Ningbo Marine, with a general short-term rising probability below 50% for major trading units [2]

Group 1 - New Power Financial's trading volume exceeded 20% on June 25, leading to its appearance on the leaderboard [1] - The top buyers included Goldman Sachs (China) Securities with a purchase amount of 39.95 million yuan, followed by CITIC Securities Shanghai Branch at 35.23 million yuan [1] - Notably, CITIC Securities Shanghai Branch and UBS Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road Second Branch appeared on both the buying and selling sides, indicating differing market views on the stock's short-term performance [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities Shanghai Branch was the top seller with a selling amount of 23.43 million yuan, while also ranking second in buying [1] - The selling activity showed a divergence in capital, with UBS Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road Second Branch selling 20.97 million yuan and Guotai Junan Securities Headquarters selling 20.67 million yuan [1] - Historical data indicates that Guotai Junan Securities Headquarters has appeared on the leaderboard 485 times in the last three months, with a 45.98% probability of the stocks it bought rising within three days [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦宽幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 25 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1387.5 元/吨，日内录得 1.46%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.13 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1125 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.94%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1150 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.71%。近期，随着利多因素逐渐累积，原先普遍悲观的 市场情绪迎来转变，部分空单止盈离 ...

2025年6月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 以伊冲突缓和,原油继续大跌, EC盘面低开低走, 符合日报预期, 近期博弈难度较大, 建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1937.14点，较上期上涨14.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1382.05点，较上期下跌10.07% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1299.58点，较上期下跌0.64% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2083.46点，较上期下跌28.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1586.05点，较上期下跌28.91% | | 6月20日 | | | | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1869.59点，较上期下跌218.65点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1342.46点，较上期上涨8.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1835USD/TEU, 较上期下 ...

Group 1 - Iran is assessing the damage to its nuclear program and has developed a recovery plan to prevent disruptions in production and service processes [1] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the U.S. conducted precise strikes on Iran's key nuclear facilities, resulting in severe damage to the Natanz centrifuge hall [1] - Iran has reportedly transferred nearly 900 pounds of potential enriched uranium to secure locations, but the IAEA is unaware of the specific whereabouts of this material [1][2] Group 2 - U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that if Iran cannot enrich uranium to 90%, it cannot produce nuclear weapons, a sentiment echoed by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi [2] - The disappearance of 900 pounds of enriched uranium has become a focal point in the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian indicated that Iran's missile retaliation against U.S. and Israeli attacks led to a ceasefire agreement, asserting that Iran will not abandon its nuclear program [2]

稀土矿（资料图） 据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月19日，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行董事会主席兼首席执行官格列夫表示，在俄美关系缓和的背景 下，该行正与美国合作伙伴举行会谈，但目前仅是"试探性接触"。至于具体合作项目，"暂无任何计划"。格列夫还称，俄 罗斯银行业整体状况"不错"，目前"未见任何银行危机迹象"，但承认年度利润将有所下滑。2022年4月，美国对俄罗斯联 邦储蓄银行实施全面封锁制裁，冻结其在美资产，并禁止美公民与其进行金融往来。 俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行董事会主席兼首席执行官格列夫（资料图） 俄罗斯联邦矿产开发署署长奥列格·卡扎诺夫在圣彼得堡国际经济论坛前夕接受卫星通讯社采访时表示，洛沃泽罗和托姆 托尔矿不仅能够为俄罗斯，还能为全世界提供稀土金属。他指出，俄罗斯 2,850 万吨稀土金属储量中 1,100 万吨集中在两 个矿：位于摩尔曼斯克州的洛沃泽罗矿（700 万吨）和位于雅库特的托姆托尔矿（400 万吨）。此之，还存在未分配资源 区块以及技术成因原料矿源，这些均未计入俄罗斯已探明的 2,850 万吨储量之中"。 开发署署长卡扎诺夫强调，目前俄方已经探明了2850万吨稀土储量，而这还不包含未分配的资源区块，以及技术 ...

最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing volatility in palm oil futures, highlighting the market's struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, and the challenges in addressing supply pressures [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The palm oil futures market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leading to uncertainty about whether the market will rebound or reverse [1] - Supply pressures in the market are significant, raising questions about how these challenges can be effectively managed [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the resolution of supply pressures will be crucial in determining the future direction of palm oil prices [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring developments that could influence the balance between supply and demand in the palm oil sector [1]