各位交易者下午好，欢迎收看今天盘后的《期市晨昏线》栏目。 今天，乐观积极的市场情绪再度主导了我国的市场，盘面涨多跌少，按收盘价计算，文华商品指数最终 以上涨0.5%收尾，再度站上了位于162一带的技术性压力区间。然而，考虑到文华商品指数近期对162 进行了反复穿越，因此，建议交易者把重点关注的压力区间转换到163一带。 （来源：文华财经） 进一步来说，多晶硅今天延续了自"反内卷"逻辑以来的强势表现，其盘面在市场供应收紧的预期下而刷 新了上市以来的最高价位，最终以高达6.42%的上涨幅度领涨期市。此外，同为相关品种的碳酸锂，因 某矿业公司宣布停产的消息而自午盘开始快速走强，最终实现了2.32%的上涨幅度。那么与之相反的 是，受国际油价回落影响，再加上特朗普"希望油价能再降一点"的最新言论，今天的系化工品整体走出 了相对偏弱的表现。 | 序号 合约名称 | 最新 涨幅%↓ | | --- | --- | | ↑１ 多品硅2508™ 45700 6.42% | | | ↑ 2 | | | ↑ 3 胶合板2511M 149.70 4.14% | | | ↑ 4 菜籽粕2509 ^ 2719 | 2.49% | | 1 ...

对于下半年房地产出现重大调整的担忧是大可不必的。 7月17日，上海财经大学校长刘元春在中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）举行的宏观经济月度数据分析会上表 示，上半年经济增长数据超预期， 6月份数据显示经济运行仍然面临压力，需要对中国经济的本质性特征 有更深入的把握。 他认为，房地产、外贸、消费、物价是影响经济的四大核心要点。下半年"以旧换新"政策资金仍可撬动万 亿消费。 中央城市工作会议的召开标志着房地产融资及相关政策将迈入新阶段。"对于下半年房地产出现重大调整 的担忧是大可不必的。"刘元春说，目前境外机构对于中国房地产还会进一步进行下探，对中国宏观经济 产生过度拖累的判断实际上是过虑了。 下半年"以旧换新"政策资金仍可撬动万亿消费 商务部6月1日发布的数据显示，截至5月31日，2025年消费品以旧换新五大品类合计带动销售额1.1万亿 元，发放直达消费者的补贴约1.75亿份。 "这使同期社零的增长提升了差不多接近2个点，当然很好。"刘元春表示，所以很多人担心下半年补贴额 度是否充足？ 他指出，下半年剩余的资金仍具备撬动万亿销售额的潜力。这主要得益于两方面：一是对"以旧换新"政策 的覆盖范围进行了扩大；二是地方资金积极 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wave of "anti-involution" has extended to the intellectual property agency industry, with a shift from "price competition" to "quality competition" being emphasized to avoid negative competition and ensure a healthy industry environment [1][10]. Group 1: Intellectual Property Statistics - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the added value of patent-intensive industries is expected to increase from 11.97% of GDP in 2020 to 13.04% in 2023 [2]. - As of June this year, the number of valid invention patents in China reached 5.01 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people reaching a new high of 15.3 [2][6]. - Nearly 40% of high-value invention patents have a maintenance period exceeding 10 years, totaling approximately 793,000, which is 3.1 times that at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [8]. Group 2: Industry Governance and Quality Improvement - The National Intellectual Property Administration (NIPA) is strengthening industry governance to guide the patent agency industry away from "involution" and negative competition, while also cracking down on plagiarism, patchwork, and fraud in patent applications [4][11]. - NIPA is promoting the "Blue Sky" rectification special action in the trademark agency industry and has introduced the "Trademark Agency Supervision and Management Regulations" [10]. - To enhance service quality in the agency industry, NIPA is addressing "involution-style" competition by releasing government procurement standards for patent and trademark agency services, encouraging agencies to improve service precision and price matching [13]. Group 3: Support for Enterprises Going Global - NIPA is actively enhancing intellectual property protection for Chinese enterprises going global, having provided guidance services 2,393 times and consultation services 6,885 times, helping reduce litigation costs by 1.32 billion yuan and recover economic losses of 3.804 billion yuan [15]. - The agency is also focusing on improving foreign-related intellectual property laws and regulations, and has compiled a comprehensive guide on intellectual property laws and treaties from 189 countries and regions [15][16].

策略报告| 投资策略 策略专题 | 如何定位"市场化反内卷"? | 作者 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴鼎达 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524030001 | | | | wukaida@tfzq.com | | | | 核心结论: 孙希民 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524110002 | | | | 我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧重于成本 sunximin@tfzq.com | | | | 调查和价格监测,治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的供给格局配合， 日消零 | | 联系人 | | 我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个方面讨论哪些行业更 wangchengrui@tfzq.com | | | | 具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和存货的历史分位数水平衡量 | | | | 行业的"内卷程度",以上述三个指标是否发生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启 相关报告 | | | | 动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出清的行业。 | | | | 1《投资策略:"对等关税"再 ...

往后看，"反内卷"及城市更新相关政策对需求侧的拉动需进一步观察。三季度经济数据验证较为关键： 一是观察内部经济动能变化情况，二是8月关税豁免期结束外部影响或重新放大。若7—8月数据验证经 济动能低于目标增速，则不排除宏观政策适时发力托举。 7月是缴税大月，资金利率走势很大程度取决于央行的对冲操作。7月15日是增值税、所得税等主要税种 的纳税申报截止日，税期时点流动性明显收敛，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率上行至1.53%附近，7 天质押式回购利率则上行至1.56%附近。 7月15日，央行公开市场逆回购继续放量，释放明确呵护信号。当日，央行开展了3425亿元7天期逆回购 操作。同时，690亿元逆回购到期及1000亿元MLF到期，单日全口径净投放1735亿元。此外，央行还进 行1.4万亿元买断式逆回购操作（包括3个月期8000亿元和6个月期6000亿元），当日实际净投放规模达 15735亿元。现阶段由短及长的利率曲线关系较为顺畅，资金、存单和长债利率未出现倒挂情形，资金 面持续紧张概率不高。 从广义流动性来看，政府债继续支撑6月社融增速回升，6月政府债净融资规模达到1.41万亿元，不过实 体融资需求相对偏弱。从企业 ...

国外 1. 花旗：予恒指今年年底目标25000点，呼吁增持中国互联网、科技及消费板块 花旗发表亚股策略报告表示，尽管宏观环境波动，亚洲股市表现仍优于全球同行，美国关税问题使短期 展望不明朗，但花旗股票策略师对中期前景仍持建设性看法，该行料MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)指数至 2026年中将有约7%的回报，此相当预测市盈率14倍，该行在亚股中看好中国及韩国市场，其企业每股 盈测修订趋势较佳、估值合理，且受益于结构性主题(人工智能、公司治理改革)。该行予恒指于今年年 底目标25000点、明年年中目标更达26000点，予沪深300指数于今年年底目标4200点、明年年中目标达 4350点，MSCI中国指数今年年底目标79点、明年年中目标82点。花旗称，MSCI中国行业权重模型投资 组合中，该行将消费板块从中性上调至增持，倾向于国内相关股票并为潜在的政府刺激做准备；将运输 板块从增持下调至中性，因全球货运量在美国贸易关税增加的背景下存在下行风险。该行对中国互联 网、科技及消费板块予增持评级。 2. 美银：预计美联储在明年之前不会降息 4. 惠誉：财政政策是日本信用评级的主要风险 惠誉评级负责日本主权评级的分析师Krisja ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 本轮反内卷讨论中，光伏、新能源汽车、储能系统、电商平台等行业被点名较 多。我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个方面讨论哪些行 业更具备基本面率先改善的潜质。资本开支增速拐点往往滞后于收入拐点，从 盈利与资本周期出发，出清往往经历四个"象限"："经营难赚钱"→"减小资 本开支"→"开始企稳赚钱"→"资本开支上升"。"经营难赚钱"意味着增收 不增利，可以理解为内卷的起点，CAPEX 的调头可以理解成出清的起点。 我们以 CAPEX、毛利率和存货的历史分位数水平衡量行业的"内卷程度"，可 以看出上游周期资源行业中有色、化工等行业"内卷"程度仍较高，中游制造 与下游科技行业"内卷"程度较为极致，上述指标的历史位置更为极端，下游 消费则呈现分化，"内卷"程度较高的行业集中在家电与轻工制造。以上述三 个指标是否发生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启动，目的是筛选本身已经在去 产能、出清的行业。 策略专题 证券研究报告 如何定位"市场化反内卷"？ 核心结论： 我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧重于成本 调查和价格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的供给格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry is experiencing growth, particularly in the sales of larger displacement motorcycles, with a significant increase in sales figures for June 2025 compared to the previous year and the first half of the year [1][2]. Sales Data Summary - For motorcycles with displacement over 250cc, June 2025 sales reached 102,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.7%. Cumulative sales from January to June totaled 501,000 units, up 41.3% year-on-year [1]. - In the 250ml to 400ml displacement category, June sales were 53,000 units, up 15.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with cumulative sales of 265,000 units for the first half of the year, reflecting a 45.0% year-on-year increase [2]. - For the 400ml to 500ml category, June sales were 25,000 units, down 17.6% year-on-year but up 38.19% month-on-month, with a total of 129,000 units sold in the first half, a 7.1% year-on-year increase [2]. - In the 500ml to 800ml category, June sales reached 21,000 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 99.44% and a month-on-month increase of 38.19%, with cumulative sales of 93,000 units for the first half, up 104.4% year-on-year [2]. - For motorcycles over 800cc, June sales were 2,300 units, down 27.06% year-on-year and 8.3% month-on-month, with cumulative sales of 14,000 units for the first half, up 125.9% year-on-year [2]. Market Share Insights - Chuanfeng Power sold 21,000 units in June for the 250cc+ category, achieving a market share of 21.2%, with a cumulative market share of 21.6% for the first half, up 1.8 percentage points from the full year of 2024 [3]. - Longxin General sold 15,000 units in June for the 250cc+ category, with a market share of 12.9%, and a cumulative market share of 13.5% for the first half, down 0.7 percentage points from the full year of 2024 [3]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle sold 11,000 units in June for the 250cc+ category, with a market share of 11.2%, and a cumulative market share of 13.9% for the first half, down 2.9 percentage points from the full year of 2024 [3]. Industry Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on key stocks in the automotive sector, including Geely Automobile, BYD, Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, Chuanfeng Power, and others [5][8]. - The company also highlights the importance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's advocacy for reducing internal competition in the automotive industry, which is expected to benefit the overall market dynamics [6].

| 集 邦 咨 询 | | | | 史新日期: 2025/ // 16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多昌硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型复投料(RMB) | 36.000 | 34.000 | 35.500 | 2.90% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 35.000 | 33.000 | 33.000 | 3.13% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 33.500 | 32.000 | 32.500 | 3.17% | | 非中国区多晶硅(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 17.500 | 0.00% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | मञ्जू | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130µm (RMB) | 1.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 | 13.64% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130µm (RMB) | 1.350 | 1.330 | 1.350 | 12.50% | | N型210R単晶硅片-210*182mm/130μm (RM ...

7月17日，A股震荡反弹，沪指围绕3500点整数关口波动，创业板指表现偏强，市场近3500股飘红。全天成交1.5万亿，较上个交易日放量973.3 亿。截至收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深成指涨1.43%，创业板指涨1.76%。 热门板块 1、算力硬件端爆发 算力硬件端集体爆发，PCB、CPO方向领涨，剑桥科技、东山精密等涨停，新易盛、胜宏科技、仕佳光子、生益电子、潍柴重机等多股创新高。 市场分析认为，指数反弹有三方面原因： 一是，在中国披露了超预期的经济数据后，大摩、高盛、瑞银等多家外资机构宣布上调中国2025年全年GDP增速预测。 二是，中美贸易也传来利好信号，美国对华AI芯片出口政策出现重大转折，其中英伟达H20芯片将重启销售，AMD已计划恢复向中国出口MI308 芯片。 三是，中报行情继续火热，算力、创新药再度联手上涨，消息面上，算力硬件股业绩近期频频预喜，此外，多家创新药企业的业绩预增数据持续 印证行业的高景气度。 盘面上，热点快速轮动，算力硬件端集体爆发，PCB、CPO方向领涨，剑桥科技、东山精密等涨停，新易盛、胜宏科技等多股集体创新高；创新 药等医药股延续强势，成都先导等多股封板；锂矿股午后异动拉升，大 ...