日本央行：日本经济正呈现温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲软迹象。 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-17 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 5 月宏观数据公布，社零数据表现亮眼 观点分享： 昨日公布了最新的国内宏观经济数据，5 月社会消费品零售同比增 6.4%，创 2023 年 12 月来最高；5 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，新能源汽车、工业机器人产量较快增长； 1-5 月份城镇固定资产投资增长 3.7%。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.6%，制造业投 资增长 8.5%，房地产开发投资下降 10.7%；1-5 月房地产开发投资同比下降 10.7%，5 月 70 城房价：各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线、二线新房房价环比转降。其中最亮眼的当 属社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，远超市场预期的 5%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效， 限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分 别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。汽车类零售同比增长 1.1%，石油及制品类零售下 滑7%。可以看到消费市场正在逐步恢复活力，尤其是在节假日和 ...

食品饮料周报 白酒持续调整，关注高景气大众 品 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月16日 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 风险提示：1）宏观经济疲软的风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）重大食品安全事件的风险。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-5.31%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金种子酒（-1.28%）、顺鑫农业（-1.60%）、伊力特（- 2.09%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为金徽酒（-8.33%）、今世缘（-8.80%）、古井贡酒（-9.78%）。 观点：白酒持续调整，期待后续改善。白酒板块持续调整，上周白酒指数下跌5.31%。据今日 ...

Group 1 - In May 2025, a total of 18,202 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.12%. Domestic sales were 8,392 units, down 1.48%, while exports reached 9,810 units, up 5.42% [1] - From January to May 2025, a total of 101,716 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.4%. Domestic sales were 57,501 units, up 25.7%, and exports were 44,215 units, up 8.2% [2] - In May 2025, 36 electric excavators were sold, with various weight categories contributing to the total [3] Group 2 - In May 2025, a total of 10,535 loaders were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.24%. Domestic sales were 6,037 units, up 16.7%, while exports were 4,498 units, down 3.31% [4][5] - From January to May 2025, a total of 52,755 loaders were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. Domestic sales were 29,607 units, up 25.4%, and exports were 23,148 units, up 2.39% [5] Group 3 - In May 2025, 649 graders were sold, down 3.28% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 112 units, up 31.8%, while exports were 537 units, down 8.36% [7] - From January to May 2025, a total of 3,580 graders were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. Domestic sales were 677 units, up 40.7%, and exports were 2,903 units, up 10.1% [7] Group 4 - In May 2025, 1,748 truck cranes were sold, down 8.1% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 978 units, down 3.36%, while exports were 770 units, down 13.5% [7] - From January to May 2025, a total of 9,103 truck cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.94%. Domestic sales were 5,181 units, down 13.8%, and exports were 3,922 units, down 1.61% [8] Group 5 - In May 2025, 261 crawler cranes were sold, up 31.8% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 56 units, down 3.45%, while exports were 205 units, up 46.4% [10] - From January to May 2025, a total of 1,282 crawler cranes were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.25%. Domestic sales were 402 units, down 1.23%, and exports were 880 units, up 8.51% [11] Group 6 - In May 2025, 1,681 truck-mounted cranes were sold, down 20.3% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 1,286 units, down 27.5%, while exports were 395 units, up 18.6% [13] - From January to May 2025, a total of 10,695 truck-mounted cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.85%. Domestic sales were 8,535 units, down 6.71%, and exports were 2,160 units, up 9.42% [14] Group 7 - In May 2025, 538 tower cranes were sold, down 28.4% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 292 units, down 51.7%, while exports were 246 units, up 67.3% [15] - From January to May 2025, a total of 2,334 tower cranes were sold, marking a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%. Domestic sales were 1,278 units, down 57.1%, and exports were 1,056 units, up 51.1% [16] Group 8 - In May 2025, 123,472 forklifts were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. Domestic sales were 79,129 units, up 9.25%, while exports were 44,343 units, up 16.6% [17] - From January to May 2025, a total of 601,764 forklifts were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.33%. Domestic sales were 392,490 units, up 6.66%, and exports were 209,274 units, up 14.7% [18] Group 9 - In May 2025, 1,589 rollers were sold, up 17% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 577 units, up 6.07%, while exports were 1,012 units, up 24.3% [19] - From January to May 2025, a total of 7,772 rollers were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. Domestic sales were 2,905 units, up 10.8%, and exports were 4,867 units, up 32.9% [20] Group 10 - In May 2025, 149 pavers were sold, up 30.7% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 107 units, up 33.8%, while exports were 42 units, up 23.5% [21] - From January to May 2025, a total of 708 pavers were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.4%. Domestic sales were 521 units, up 32.2%, and exports were 187 units, up 29% [22] Group 11 - In May 2025, 15,653 aerial work platforms were sold, down 26.2% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 5,284 units, down 48.1%, while exports were 10,369 units, down 5.8% [25] - From January to May 2025, a total of 74,533 aerial work platforms were sold, marking a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%. Domestic sales were 29,191 units, down 48.3%, and exports were 45,342 units, down 18.4% [26] Group 12 - In May 2025, 296 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, down 33.3% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 286 units, down 34.1%, while exports remained flat at 10 units [26] - From January to May 2025, a total of 1,906 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. Domestic sales were 1,803 units, up 9.74%, and exports were 103 units, up 87.3% [27]

大宗商品周度报告 2025年6月16日 流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨2.14%，其中能化涨幅较大，上涨4.36%， 农产品和贵金属分别上涨1.08%和059%，有色金属和黑色分别下跌1.09%和 0.35%。 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为原油、燃料油和LU，涨幅分别为 13.69%、12.14%和8.62%；跌幅较大的品种为纯碱、尿素和锌，跌幅分别为 4.62%、3.43%和2.55%。 资金方面有所上升，主要流入方向为石油化工及贵金属。 ●展望：上周对于大类资产影响的主要驱动因素由中美伦敦经贸磋商的利好向 伊以冲突的再升温转变，在油价的冲击下大类资产的风险偏好有所回落。但由于 美元偏弱势，对于A股的冲击力度相对有限。周末伊以之间的冲突仍然保持相对 高压的状态，各大国出来展示出明确的调停诉求，预计战争失控的风险较低，但 是短期焦灼与反复也有一定的概率，因此不确定性较大，短期预计市场震荡修复 为主。 贵金属方面，在以色列与伊朗冲突加剧、地缘局势持续紧张的背景下，贵金 属市场避险情绪显著升温，截至2025年6月16日，黄金期货维持高位震荡，资 金持续流入避险 ...

宏观经济 | 数据点评 中国宏观数据点评：5 月消费表现 强劲，但投资和生产数据逊于预期 核心观点：5 月实体经济数据显示供给端或受关税影响有所走弱，工 业生产和制造业投资增速均有所下滑。内需方面则呈现出消费需求 强、投资需求弱的局面。不过我们认为 5 月强消费或由于黄金周消 费、"618"电商促销活动叠加消费品"以旧换新"政策的共振效应， 其可持续性仍有不确定性。此外，5 月房价和房产销售的继续走弱亦 令人担心。尽管如此，在关税维持现状的背景下，我们预计增量政策 刺激或将至少挪后至 9 月。我们认为在 7 月下旬的季度政治局经济 会议上，政府或不会发布显著的增量政策措施。短期内政府或更为重 视已公布政策的落实和成效观望。然而，考虑到尚不均衡和稳固的经 济复苏，以及今年以来已经增加的 30%出口到美国商品关税影响的 逐渐显现，我们认为政府最快在 9 月或会推出 0.5-1.0 万亿元的财政 资金支持，并再次降准 50 个基点和降息 10-20 个基点。 5 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速远超预期反弹，受益于黄金周消费、 "618"电商促销活动和消费品"以旧换新"政策的共振效应。社会 消费品零售总额同比增速从 4 ...

超配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 商俭 shangjian@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月16日 ➢ 风险提示：贸易摩擦风险；海外需求放缓；市场竞争风险；政策不及预期风险。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 机 械 设 备 [table_invest] [table_stockTrend] -27% -14% -1% 12% 25% 38% 51% 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle] 5月挖机淡季内销收缩，龙头企业赴港股 上市 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 装载机：2025年5月销售各类装载机10535台，同比增长7.24%。其中国内6037台，同比 增长16.7%；出口4498台，同比下降3.31%。2025年5月销售电动装载机276 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡下跌。消息面，中东地缘危机爆发，市场担忧原因供应问题以及全球 需求下行风险，市场情绪走弱。不过关税战冲击下外需走弱已经在市场预期之 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, is impacting global oil prices and supply chains, which may negatively affect export-dependent sectors in A-shares like electronics and home appliances. However, gold and oil sectors may benefit from this situation as investors seek safe havens [3] - Domestic policies are becoming more favorable, with the central bank injecting 1.4 trillion yuan in liquidity over ten days, benefiting banks and brokerages. Upcoming events like the Lujiazui Forum may lead to further policy support, such as interest rate cuts or consumption stimulus [3] Group 2: Policy Impacts - The real estate sector is seeing a relaxation of restrictions, with cities like Guangzhou lifting purchase and sale limits, which may provide some relief to related industries like building materials and home furnishings, although significant price increases are not expected due to the ongoing "housing is for living in, not for speculation" policy [3] - The regulatory environment for technology is tightening, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, which remain policy priorities, but high valuations may require a wait for corrections before investment [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around the 3400-point mark, showing signs of a potential downward adjustment with key support levels identified between 3350 and 3370 points. A rebound is possible if the market stabilizes, as liquidity remains abundant [4] Group 4: Fund Flows - Recent shifts in major funds indicate a rotation, with increased investments in brokerages and innovative pharmaceuticals, while the new energy vehicle sector is experiencing significant sell-offs due to high valuations. Northbound funds are steadily accumulating bank stocks, indicating a preference for high-dividend investments [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to include defensive assets like gold and oil in their portfolios due to the uncertain geopolitical climate, with specific stocks like Shandong Molong and Western Gold showing potential [7] - Capitalizing on policy benefits by focusing on leading stocks in the brokerage and real estate sectors is recommended, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing high prices [7] - Long-term investments in sectors like AI computing, humanoid robotics, and low-altitude economy are encouraged, as these areas are expected to provide opportunities despite short-term volatility [8]