美国就业市场正面临前所未有的挑战。6月份ADP私营部门就业数据意外转负，减少3.3万个岗位，这是 逾两年来首次出现负增长。市场原本预期增加10万个岗位，实际结果与预期相差悬殊。这一数据暴露出 美国经济深层次的结构性问题，也为美联储的货币政策决策增添了新的变数。 就业市场疲软信号频现，经济增长动能持续减弱。今年前五个月，美国平均每月新增就业岗位仅12.4万 个，较去年同期的16.8万个明显下降。这种下滑趋势反映了多重因素的叠加影响。关税政策的不确定性 给企业招聘决策带来困扰，政府部门的裁员行动进一步削弱了就业增长。移民政策收紧导致劳动力供应 急剧放缓，而人口增长放缓和劳动力老龄化则从根本上制约了就业岗位的快速增加。 这种系统性的数据下修反映了统计方法的结构性问题。能够迅速回应调查的雇主更可能是大型、资金雄 厚且管理良好的企业，而小型企业往往延迟提交反馈。随着这些滞后回应的雇主数据陆续提交，就业形 势呈现出进一步恶化的趋势。这种统计偏差使得初始数据往往高估了实际的就业增长水平。 劳动力市场的结构性变化加剧了统计难度。处于工作年龄阶段的美国本土出生人口几乎不再增长，新移 民加入劳动力的数量被严重削减。根据布鲁金斯学 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statement from the Federal Reserve's Bostic highlights the importance of monitoring the employment market, particularly if there are signs of deterioration such as rising unemployment rates or corporate layoffs [1] Group 1 - The employment market's health is crucial for economic stability, and any signs of decline should be closely observed [1] - An increase in unemployment rates or corporate layoffs could signal broader economic issues that require attention [1]

Core Insights - The overall non-farm payroll report is considered good data, indicating a positive employment trend [1] Employment Trends - Employment trends are reported to be strong, reflecting a healthy labor market [1]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

美国财长贝森特：整体就业形势良好。 ...

美国财长贝森特：总体而言，就业报告数据表现良好。 ...

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K in June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised May figure of +144K [1][2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, resulting in a total increase of +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The government sector contributed significantly to job gains in June with +73K, while the private sector saw mixed results, including a loss of -56K in Professional/Business Services [4][5] - Healthcare added +39K jobs and Social Assistance +19K, but traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying any cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market concerns [7][8] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, aligning with expectations and showing improvement from the record low of -$138 billion in March [9]

以下文章来源于APPSO ，作者发现明日产品的 APPSO . AI 第一新媒体，「超级个体」的灵感指南。 #AIGC #智能设备 #独特应用 #Generative AI 本文来自微信公众号： APPSO （ID：appsolution） ，作者：发现明日产品的，原文标题：《1300 万网友围观的"最强"打工人，靠 1 份假简历拿 5 份工资，硅谷 AI 公司被骗麻了》，题图来自：视觉 中国 AI时代的"最强"打工人出现了。 骗倒全硅谷，一人打几份工，拿offer拿到手软，引来1375万人的围观，并直接屠榜海外各大社交平 台。 这事要从Playground AI的创始人Sohail Doshi今天在社交媒体上发的一条爆料说起。他表示，一位名 为Soham Parekh的印度工程师，靠着一份几乎90%造假的简历，同时在3～5家初创公司上班。 Sohail Doshi表示，入职第一周就发现对方不对劲，于是立马开除，临走前还苦口婆心地劝对方别再 骗人了，没想到这位印度老哥非但没收手，还越战越勇，继续多线作战。 打工人经常被资本做局是惯有的事，如今，资本被打工人明显地反向薅羊毛，还真是头一遭。随着事 件热度飙升，Y ...

美国6月ISM非制造业就业指数 47.2，预期49.5，前值50.7。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]