当全球化走到十字路口，旧有的航路图似乎已无法指引未来。6月24日，在世界经济论坛第十六届新领 军者年会（即"夏季达沃斯论坛"）上，全球产业链的碎片化与重构成为无法回避的核心议题。 南都湾财社记者获悉，作为本届论坛上唯一来自科技制造领域的企业家代表，TCL创始人、董事长李东 生指出，未来的全球化，无论怎么发展，一定是在坚持效率的基础上追求公平、推动全球经济均衡发展 的模式。 "无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，从本国角度出发，采取一些贸易保护措施似乎都有其'合理性'。"李 东生坦言，这正是近年来"逆全球化"声浪迭起，贸易壁垒增多的深层原因。 他认为，过去数十年由效率驱动的全球化模式在创造巨大财富的同时，也埋下了失衡的种子，如今，是 时候推动一次深刻的"再平衡"了。 在过去几十年，以WTO为主导的贸易投资自由化，其核心逻辑是让生产要素在全球范围内自由流动， 以实现资源配置效率的最大化。这一模式取得了巨大成功。"据统计，在WTO成立后的30年间，全球贸 易总额年均增长5.8%，全球化平均每年为全球经济增长贡献0.2个百分点。"李东生肯定了效率的价值。 然而，天平的另一端，是日益凸显的公平性问题。李东生指出，这种失衡体现 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-25原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：根据美国情报部门的初步评估，美国的空袭并没有摧毁伊朗的核能力，仅使其核能力推迟了几 个月。在美国总统特朗普的施压下，以色列与伊朗之间脆弱的停火协议周二开始生效；哈萨克斯坦官员称， 该国已通知OPEC+，其没有削减产量的计划；美联储主席鲍威尔对国会议员表示，今年夏天关税上调可能会 开始推高通胀，这将是美联储考虑降息的关键时期；中性 2.基差：6月24日，阿曼原油现货价为68.85美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.64美元/桶，基3.47元/ 桶，现货平水期货；中性 3.库存：美国截至6月20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-25燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场供需趋于平衡，新加坡枢纽近期供应充足，而苏伊士以东地区的货物流 通仍保持活跃。上游供应商预计，由于直馏产品到货量增加，含硫0.5%船用燃油调和组分在6月下旬至7月 初将保持充足，但下游估值仍承压；6月剩余时间，新加坡地区的高硫燃料油供应依然充裕，因此也压制 了即期现货的现金溢价；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为476.09美元/吨，基差为437元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为558.5美元/吨，基 差为402元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油6月18日当周库存为228 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 3.06%至 60700 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 50 元 /吨至 59900 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 50 元/吨至 58300 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒） 下跌 200 元/吨至 58570 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 4404 吨至 22375 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比有增，6 月碳酸锂产量环比增加超 9%。需求端，周度库存周转天数均 有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显，6 月两大正极材料消耗碳酸锂环比下降 10%。库存端，社会总库 存延续增加，碳酸锂总库存周转天数上升至 2 个月左右，同时，锂矿库存环比小幅增加，6 月正值 财报披露季，海外发运量亦有增加，目前整体锂矿+锂盐库存水平达到 3.5 个月左右，库存压力较 大。 3. 当前价格水平基本处在阶段性底部位置，从锂矿价格 600-610 美金来看短期仍有支撑，但是基本面 仍未有拐点出现，市场情绪仍然偏空， ...

些业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月25日 要指示 Z0019144 苯乙烯上游 | 品种 | 6月24日 | 6月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent原油(8月) | 67.1 | 71.5 | -4.3 | -6.1% | 美元/桶 | | CFR日本石脑油 | 586.0 | 642.0 | -56.0 | -8.7% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 850.0 | 850.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | CFR韩国纪本 | 733.0 | 773.0 | -40.0 | -5.2% | 美元/吨 | | CFR中国纯苯 | 747.0 | 791.0 | -44.0 | -5.6% | | | 纯苯-石脑油 | 161.0 | 149.0 | 12.0 | 8.1% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 264.0 | 208.0 | 56.0 | 26.9% | | | 纯苯华东现货价 | 6045.0 | 6400.0 | -355.0 | -5.5% | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： MEG： 1、基本面：周二，乙二醇价格重心大幅下行，低位买气尚可。伊朗对美报复不及预期，隔夜原油跌幅达7%附近，成本端回落明显。 特朗普宣称伊以将达成停火，早盘乙二醇大幅下挫，现货低位成交至4400元/吨附近。乙二醇价格回落至低位，聚酯工厂参与挂单 较为积极，低位买气尚可。美金方面，乙二醇外盘重心大幅回落，日内近期船货商谈在514-520美元/吨附近，场内成交较为清淡。 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空 空减 偏空 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货大幅下跌，现货市场PTA商谈尚可，聚酯询盘增加，现货基差区间波动。个别聚酯工厂补货，本 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market is undergoing a structural shift, with supply increasing and demand slowing, leading to a cooling of home prices [1] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates that as of April, home prices nationwide rose only 2.7% year-over-year, the smallest increase in nearly two years, and down from 3.4% in March [1] - Instantaneous price tracking from Parcl Labs shows that home prices nationwide are nearly flat year-over-year, indicating a trend of price weakness [1] Price Trends - The slowdown in home prices is evident in both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, which are significantly below recent peaks [1] - The annual increase in home prices for April was primarily driven by the spring selling season over the past six months, rather than balanced growth throughout the year, indicating a concentration of market momentum [1] Mortgage Rates and Buyer Behavior - High mortgage rates continue to deter many potential homebuyers, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassing 7% in April, although it has slightly retreated, remaining at multi-year highs [1] - First-time homebuyers accounted for only 30% of overall sales in May, significantly below the historical average of 40%, highlighting the severe impact of high mortgage costs on this demographic [1] Supply Dynamics - The number of homes for sale has increased, but overall supply remains below pre-pandemic levels [2] - Approximately 6% of homeowners are at risk of selling at a loss, slightly higher than a year ago but still at a historical low [2] - The downward risk in the housing market is being supported by insufficient supply, as most existing homeowners are reluctant to give up low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of land conservation, particularly arable land, in ensuring national food security, highlighting the need for a robust system to protect and utilize land efficiently [1][2]. Group 1: Current Status of Arable Land - As of 2023, China's arable land area is reported to be 1.929 billion acres, with a shift from a trend of "decrease in the south and increase in the north" to "increase in both south and north," resulting in a net increase of 2.105 million acres in southern regions [1]. - The area of sloped arable land (over 25 degrees) has decreased by 1.3219 million acres, while flat arable land (under 2 degrees) has increased by 7.147 million acres [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Arable Land Protection - The country still faces challenges such as low per capita arable land, poor quality of arable land, and insufficient backup resources, with issues of "non-agriculturalization" and "non-grainization" of arable land remaining prominent [2]. - Problems like farmland abandonment, soil erosion, groundwater over-extraction, soil degradation, and increased agricultural pollution are prevalent, indicating that the foundation for protecting arable land is not solid [2]. Group 3: Policy and Institutional Framework - There is a need to enhance the arable land protection system, focusing on quantity, quality, and ecological balance, with responsibilities clearly defined for provincial and local governments [3]. - The "National Land Spatial Planning Outline (2021-2035)" has been completed, setting clear tasks for the protection of arable land and permanent basic farmland [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Improvement - The article suggests reforms in the balance of arable land occupation and compensation, integrating various land use activities into a unified management system [3]. - Efforts are being made to improve arable land quality, with plans to convert all permanent basic farmland into high-standard farmland and establish a management mechanism to optimize land layout [3]. Group 5: Economic Incentives - To combat the issues of "non-agriculturalization" and "non-grainization," it is crucial to enhance the income security mechanism for grain farmers and promote modern, intensive agricultural practices [4]. - Establishing a compensation mechanism for major grain-producing areas is essential to create a collaborative effort in arable land protection [4].