棕榈油暂利多出尽，短期震荡 摘 要： 行情展望： 中东地缘冲突和美国生物柴油政策带来的影响暂时 结束，如今利多出尽。但是，有消息称，印尼和欧盟可能 在敲定贸易协议方面取得了重大进展，该协议有望对印度 尼西亚的关键出口产品，包括粗棕油，实现零关税。或将 极大刺激印尼棕榈油出口，支撑棕榈油价格继续上涨。不 过目前仍需等待消息证实，短期内预计棕榈油或以震荡运 行为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：棕榈油均价走势（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 2. 供应情况分析 图 2：中国棕榈油进口数据 ...

欧洲能源股因油价上涨而上涨 金十数据6月23日讯，随着油价攀升，欧洲能源股早盘走高。布伦特原油价格上涨1%，至每桶78.02美 元，并可能进一步上涨。市场观察人士正等着看伊朗如何回应美国。周末，美国对伊朗发动了一系列袭 击。IG Morning Call分析师写道，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭或中断可能会推动油价飙升至每桶100-110美 元。在伦敦股市，英国石油上涨1.5%，壳牌上涨0.8%，港湾能源上涨3%。法国道达尔上涨0.6%，西班 牙Repsol石油公司上涨1.1%，意大利埃尼集团持平。 布伦特原油 ...

Group 1 - Brent crude oil has risen above $75 per barrel, with an intraday increase of 0.65% [1]

在美国空袭伊朗核设施、油价走高之际，英国石油公司盘初股价上涨1.8%。 ...

宏观研究 霍尔木兹海峡介于伊朗与阿拉伯半岛的阿曼角之间。海峡北岸是伊朗，海峡南 岸是阿曼；东接阿曼湾，西连波斯湾，是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一出口。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道。2024 年全球石油和其他液体燃料 的消费量大约 102.7 百万桶/天，其中大约 75.5 百万桶/日是通过海运运输，占 比约 74%。而流经霍尔木兹海峡的石油和其他液体燃料的贸易量大约 20.3 百 万桶/天，占全球消费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%。此外，2023 年全 球天然气消费约 3.96 万亿立方米，其中贸易量占比约 32%。在天然气贸易中， LNG 贸易量占天然气贸易量的比例约 46%。2024 年流经霍尔木兹海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，即约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、封锁海峡，哪些地区受影响最大？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 霍尔木兹海峡有多重要？ 主要观点 本轮伊以冲突以来，伊朗再次发出封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁。本篇报告主要梳 理霍尔木兹海峡的贸易重要性以及封锁威胁的"前车之鉴"。 ❖ 一、霍尔木兹海峡的能源贸易战略地位 从产地来看，流经霍尔木兹海峡的 ...

Group 1 - Asian markets opened lower on Monday, with both currencies and stock markets declining due to heightened investor panic following the U.S. attack on Iran, which has raised concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies [1] - The South Korean won led the decline among Asian currencies, contributing to a 0.3% drop in the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index, while the Indonesian rupiah also weakened, prompting the central bank to intervene in the market [1] - Brent crude oil prices are nearing $80 per barrel, leading to inflationary pressures globally and impacting economic growth, particularly for net oil-importing Asian currencies [1] Group 2 - The 30-day correlation between Brent crude futures and the Asian Dollar Spot Index has reached -0.45, the most negative since March 2022, indicating potential risk linkage effects [2] - According to Wells Fargo, the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Philippine peso are likely to be the most affected currencies, with concentrated long positions in the won and baht potentially leading to short-term weakness [2] - Concerns over the U.S. potentially revoking export exemptions for technology to China have led to significant sell-offs in chip stocks, particularly impacting the Taiwanese stock market [2]

新华财经纽约6月23日电（记者刘亚南） 美国对伊朗核设施实施打击后市场对伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海 峡的担忧刺激国际油价在开始新一周交易后显著走高。 高盛集团和美国咨询公司拉皮丹能源集团（Rapidan Energy Group）分析人士认为，如果霍尔木兹海峡 长时间被关闭，国际油价将突破每桶100美元。 拉皮丹能源集团总裁、曾担任美国前总统小布什能源顾问的鲍勃·麦克纳利（Bob McNally）表示，伊朗 方面可能对霍尔木兹海峡船运带来扰乱的时间可能比市场认为的要久得多。船运中断可能持续数周或数 月，而非像市场认为的美国海军可以在数小时或数天解决问题。 不过，有分析人士认为，如果伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡将带来自我伤害，伊朗也将无法通过这一海峡出口 原油。 盘面数据显示，8月份交货的纽约原油期货价格在北京时间23日6点开始交易后最高升至每桶78.4美元， 与20日收盘价相比涨幅达6.18%，但随后回落至接近每桶75美元的水平。8月份交货的布伦特原油期货 价格则突破每桶80美元关口，最高升至每桶81.4美元，涨幅达5.7%, 但随后回落至每桶79美元下方。 美国总统特朗普当地时间21日晚称，美军已"成功打击"并"彻底清 ...

美国对伊朗三处核设施发动袭击后，6月22日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，美国袭击伊朗核设施"令人发 指"，将会产生"持久后果"，同日，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡。本轮伊以冲突爆发进入第11天， 局势持续升级，而在资本市场上，6月23日，A股军工股再度活跃，航运股集体走高，截至午盘沪指报 3365.07点，涨0.15%，深成指报9988.66点，跌0.16%，创业板指数报2003.26点，跌0.33%。 高盛集团表示，美国打击伊朗之后， 石油和天然气价格可能上涨，但基线情境预测取决于该地区供应 是否受到严重干扰。分析师在报告指出，如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量在一个月内下降一半，并 在接下来的11个月保持低10%的状态，布伦特油价将短暂飙升至每桶110美元。如果伊朗石油供应量减 少175万桶每日，布伦特将最高触及90美元。 6月22日，美国对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施发动袭击后，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委 员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委 员会手中。 战火延烧引市场担忧 预计油价将大幅上行 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have led to fluctuations in WTI crude oil prices, which reached a peak of $78.4 per barrel. Morgan Stanley outlines three scenarios that could influence future oil price movements [1]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario One: If military conflict does not disrupt oil flow and exports remain unaffected, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $60 per barrel range [4]. - Scenario Two: A significant reduction in Iranian exports could eliminate global supply surplus, leading oil prices to stabilize between $75 and $80 per barrel [4]. - Scenario Three: If the conflict poses risks to broader Gulf region oil exports, high oil prices similar to those seen in 2022 could re-emerge [5]. Historical Context - In 2022, international oil prices peaked at around $140 per barrel due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by a decline influenced by OPEC production cuts and U.S. strategic oil reserve releases, with prices dropping to a low of $70 by year-end [1]. Inflation Transmission Effects - The impact of oil price fluctuations on global inflation varies by region. In the U.S., a permanent 10% increase in oil prices only raises core inflation by a few basis points, while in the Eurozone, the same increase could raise core inflation by approximately 0.25 percentage points [3][7]. - The U.S. is positioned as the largest oil producer, which mitigates the inflationary impact of rising oil prices on its economy, although higher prices may still pressure consumer spending and growth [7]. Recent Price Movements - Despite recent increases, the rise in Brent crude oil prices from around $60 per barrel in early May to nearly $80 per barrel is relatively moderate compared to earlier peaks in January [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].