报 告 正 文 预计5月工业增加值同比增长6%。 5月全国制造业PMI回升至49.5%。主要分项指标中，产需双双回升，原材 料和出厂价格均有下行，库存原材料升、产成品降。从5月以来的中观高频数据来看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开 工率同比增速均有所下降。化工产业链开工率同比增速涨多跌少。六大发电集团耗煤同比增速有所回落。整体 来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，5月工业增加值同比增速降至6%。 预计5月固定资产投资累计同比增长3.9%。 4月固定资产投资累计同比增速下降至4%，具体来看三大类投资， 制造业投资和房地产投资累计同比增速有所下降，基建投资累计同比增速与上月相比基本持平。我们预计，5 月投资累计增速或保持稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，钢材综合价格指数同比增速持续走低，沥 青开工率累计同比由负转正，预计基建投资累计增速保持平稳； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比增速有所上 升，与房地产投资相关的浮法平板玻璃价格降幅有所收窄，预计房地产投资额累计降幅有所减小； 最后， 乘 联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比增速均有所放缓，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所下降。我们预计，5月 固定资产投资累计同比增速或略 ...

记者今天从市场监管总局了解到，截至目前，我国共实施儿童用品召回2454次，涉及1899.58万件，分 别占消费品召回总次数的38.79%和总数量的17.92%。受市场监管部门调查影响召回次数为2274次，涉 及产品1407.48万件，分别占儿童用品召回总次数和总数量的92.67%和74.09%。(央视新闻) ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 济南、泰安、重庆报道 "这是近几年家电卖场最好的时候。" 近日，21世纪经济报道记者走访济南、泰安、重庆等地的部分家电卖场，多家卖场经营者均发出类似的感慨。去年9月落地的消 费品以旧换新政策，极大地促进了家电、汽车等商品的销售。今年消费品以旧换新政策进一步扩围，手机等3C品类纳入"国 补"范畴，再度引领了家电卖场的火爆销售行情。 今年3000亿元超长期特别国债用以支持消费品以旧换新的政策效应在持续释放，地方政府也在加大财力投入促进消费回升。展 望二季度，相关卖场对家电、手机、汽车等消费前景依然乐观，并期待有更多品类能纳入"国补"范畴。 不可回避的是，去年9月落地的消费品以旧换新政策，拉高了相关消费品类的基数。另外，新能源汽车销售火爆的同时，业内竞 争依然激烈，部分汽车厂商存在"增收不增利"的现象。后续如何有效提振消费，推动内需持续恢复向好，仍是政策的重点。 家电卖场销售火爆 5月中旬，当记者在泰安市财源大街的三源家电采访时，这栋五层楼、经营面积2万平方米的大型线下家电卖场里，随处可见"全 城聚焦2025新国补"等字样，并明确标识出"家电/家装厨卫补贴20%，单台至高补贴2000元" ...

更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 格林大华期货中国宏观经济月报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年05月29日 中国宏观经济月报 1-4月全国固定资产投资同比增长4.0%，1-3月份为4.2% 来源:wind,格林大华 1-4月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4.0%，市场预期4.26%，1-3月份为4.2%。分类来看，1-4月广义基建 投资（含电力）同比增长10.85%，市场预期增长10.0%，1-3月增长11.5%。1-4月制造业投资同比增长8.8%， 市场预期增长9.1%，1-3月增长9.1%。1-4月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，1-3月下降9.9%。高 技术产业中，信息服务业，计算机及办公设备制造业，航空、航天器及设备制造业，专业技术服务业投资 同比分别增长40.6%、28.9%、23.9%、17.6%。1-4月份设备购置投资增长18.2%，增长贡献率达到64.5%。 2 1-4月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.8% 来源:wi ...

Core Insights - Hunstman Corporation has celebrated its 30th anniversary in China, having invested over 15 billion RMB since entering the market in 1995 [1][2] - The company focuses on three key areas under its "Four Sustainable Innovations" strategy: new energy vehicles, new energy buildings, and consumer goods upgrades [1][3] Group 1: Company Overview - Hunstman Corporation is a global specialty chemicals company with nearly 60 manufacturing, research, and operational facilities across approximately 25 countries [1] - The polyurethane division is the largest segment of Hunstman's operations in China, which includes advanced materials and functional products [1][2] Group 2: Market Strategy - Hunstman has shifted from being a supplier of upstream chemical raw materials to expanding into downstream applications in various sectors, including construction, automotive, and consumer goods [2][3] - The company plans to leverage its position in the polyurethane market to capitalize on the growth of new energy vehicles, energy-efficient building materials, and upgraded consumer products in China [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to establish its Asia-Pacific headquarters and R&D hub in China, coordinating with production bases in Singapore to create a high-quality, low-carbon industrial ecosystem in the region [4]

Core Insights - The overall economic performance of Jiangmen in the first four months of 2025 is characterized as "generally stable, under pressure" with key indicators showing positive growth despite a decline in fixed asset investment [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Jiangmen increased by 2.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a 3.9% increase in added value, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector experienced a decline of 3.4% [3] - Among 21 major industrial products, 16 categories maintained positive growth, with notable increases in stainless steel daily products (52,400 tons), motorcycles (1.6179 million units), and aluminum materials (91,400 tons), all exceeding 20% growth [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by over 24% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 2.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4] - State-owned investment fell by 27.6%, while private investment decreased by 20.3% [4] - Investment in the real estate sector dropped by 25.6%, with a 10.6% decrease in the area under construction and a 20% decline in sales area [4] Foreign Trade - Jiangmen's foreign trade showed a positive trend with a total import and export value of over 63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [5] - Exports amounted to over 54.3 billion yuan, growing by 10.3%, while imports decreased by nearly 9% to 9.04 billion yuan [5] - Actual foreign investment reached 753 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 66.7% [5] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangmen reached 40.995 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [7] - Urban retail sales grew by 2.5%, while rural sales increased by 2.1% [7] - Local general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.302 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7]

北大团队首次引入"新锐度"指标，重点考察每个品牌的销售增长速度、年轻消费者增速，及其在产品创 新上的表现，作为评价品牌综合实力的关键要素。受电商经营模式影响，消费品牌存在低价内卷、创新 不足的问题，各品类的新品数量普遍出现下滑；另外，消费者对于产品创新的需求与日俱增，品牌的研 发与消费者的需求之间出现割裂。引入"新锐度"指标，对于激励企业加大研发投入、提升消费质量和人 民生活水平都有重要意义。 "政策引导市场从低价竞争向高质竞争跃迁，需要一定的社会共识与有效的宏观监测。希望通过品牌创 新促进电商平台良性竞争，引导线上消费高质量发展。"黄益平说。 值得关注的是，众多国货新锐品牌受消费者青睐，例如女包品牌山下有松、珠宝首饰品牌老铺黄金等。 这些国产品牌的共同特点是，工艺不逊于国际品牌，设计上更符合国人审美。产品多带有中国文化要 素，贴合当下国人对文化自信的追求。山下有松真空电镀五金的设计灵感便是来源于古建筑的榫卯结 构，经典款式"菜篮子"内里使用了东方刺绣织锦缎。 此外，该项研究填补了品质消费量化评估的空白。北京大学数字金融研究中心特约研究员纪洋介绍，人 们熟知的社会零售额和消费价格指数（CPI）都计算金额，受数 ...

和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融 资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 4月企业融资环境指数为49.1，高于前值的48.0；消费品价格前瞻指数为45.2，高于前值的42.8；企业招 工前瞻指数为50.5，高于前值的48.6。 4月中间品价格前瞻指数为33.6，低于前值的39.3；企业利润前瞻指数为46.6，低于前值的47.7；企业投 资前瞻指数为53.3，低于前值的57.7。 从BCI反映出来的经济节奏看，2024年9月BCI为46.0；"9·24"之后，2024年10-11月经济初步好转，读数 分别为48.1、50.5；12月二次回踩，读数为48.3；2025年1-3月连续好转，读数分别为49.4、52.8、54.8。 4月BCI环比放缓，读数降至50.1。2025年5月再度小幅回升，读数为50.3。 文/广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 2 0 25年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。关于5月经济， EPMI、BCI这两份先后出来的"软数据"在指向上高度吻合，受一揽子金 融政策叠加关 ...

"今年的手机以旧换新政策太划算了。"在五一广场的一家手机专卖店，市民周女士购买了一部国产手 机，旧手机抵扣加上政府补贴，总共优惠600多元。 在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，汽车消费市场同样活力迸发。今年4月30日起，长沙推出"五一放价驾享 星城"汽车促消费活动，财政投入1000万元专项资金，对购车的消费者实行阶梯式补贴。叠加国补，消 费者最高可享补贴2.2万元/台。据悉，在多重补贴加持下，"五一"假期举行的2025湖南汽车展览会累计 订车、卖车21657辆，预计销售金额达50.02亿元。 据市商务局提供的数据，截至5月23日，长沙消费品以旧换新核销政府补贴资金20.05亿元。其中，汽 车、家电以旧换新申领人数及成交金额在全省占比均超40%；数码3C购新各项占比的全省比例超过 50%。 家住万博汇一期的邓先生，准备将用了快十年的空调全换了。经过咨询，三台空调"国补+商场补贴+旧 品抵扣"可以优惠2000多元，相当于打了八折。 "今年的家电补贴力度非常大，再叠加卖场补贴、厂家补贴、旧机补贴等，让老百姓得到真正的实惠， 也为商家带来大量客流。"通程电器副总经理欧海军介绍，在国补政策带动下，通程电器整体销售比去 年同期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid disbursement of 300 billion yuan in national subsidies is significantly boosting consumer spending in various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and digital products, leading to increased sales and tax revenues for local governments [1][11]. Group 1: National Subsidy Program - The central government has issued 1.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for the "trade-in" subsidy program, which will increase to 3 billion yuan by 2025 [3][5]. - The distribution of the 3 billion yuan subsidy will be based on factors such as population, GDP, and previous performance in implementing the trade-in policy, with a focus on regions that have shown effective results [5][6]. Group 2: Regional Implementation - Chongqing has received 3 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds, with a high subsidy application rate leading to significant consumer spending [2][4]. - As of May 21, Chongqing has processed 48.5 billion yuan in trade-in subsidy applications, with 24.7 billion yuan disbursed, achieving an 82.3% disbursement rate [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The trade-in subsidy program has led to a notable increase in retail sales, with Chongqing reporting a 4.1% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in Q1 [2]. - The program has driven sales of over 8.3 trillion yuan across five major product categories, contributing to a positive shift in tax revenue growth [11]. Group 4: Fund Management and Oversight - The central government emphasizes strict fund management to prevent misuse, with measures including a negative list for fund usage and a multi-tiered oversight system [12][14]. - Local governments, such as in Chongqing and Shandong, are implementing advanced monitoring systems and collaborative regulatory frameworks to ensure compliance and efficiency in fund distribution [13][14].