美国至6月13日当周石油钻井总数将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Market Overview - On June 13, A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.75% to 3377.00 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.10% to 10122.11 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.13% to 2043.82 points [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was approximately 14672.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 1954.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included aerospace, nuclear pollution prevention, oil, national defense and military industry, and shipping ports [1] - Conversely, sectors that saw declines included emerging economies, daily chemicals, infant products, IP economy, CRO/CMO, beauty care, film and television, publishing, cultural media, and food and beverage [1] Individual Stock Performance - Only 849 stocks rose, with 63 hitting the daily limit up, while 4477 stocks fell, with 15 hitting the daily limit down [1] Geopolitical Impact - The Israeli Defense Ministry announced an attack on Iran, which negatively impacted market sentiment [1] - The potential for conflict escalation in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to significant oil price increases if shipping is disrupted [2] Company Spotlight: Hengguang Co., Ltd. - Hengguang Co., Ltd. was a standout performer, with a 20% increase in stock price, despite the overall market downturn [3] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of sulfur and chlorine chemical products [3] - In Q1 2025, Hengguang reported earnings per share of 0.04 yuan and a net profit of 4.1587 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 127.88% [3] - The company benefits from the nuclear pollution prevention concept, with its core product, ammonium perchlorate, primarily used in rocket propellants and explosives [3] - Hengguang's sodium chlorate production in 2023 was 50,100 tons, providing essential raw materials for ammonium perchlorate production [3]

国际能源署（IEA）周五表示，如果以色列袭击伊朗后市场出现短缺，随时释放石油储备，此番言论招 致欧佩克的批评，称该声明只会市场制造市场恐慌。近年来，代表石油消费国的国际能源署和代表一些 世界顶级产油国的欧佩克在全球石油需求轨迹和能源转型步伐方面频频冲突。国际能源署署长比罗尔表 示，尽管石油市场供应充足，但该机构将准备在必要时采取行动，并称该机构拥有12亿桶战略和紧急石 油储备。欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯批评了这一声明，称其"通过重申可能使用紧急储备的不必要需求，发 出虚假警报，制造市场恐慌"，供应或市场动态方面并未出现"需要采取不必要措施"的进展。 IEA表示随时准备动用紧急石油储备，欧佩克说没必要 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 06 月 13 日 中东冲突升级、美再加征关税，美联储还能降息吗？ ——宏观周报（第 8 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 以色列向主要产油国、OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动空袭，中东地区 冲突局势再度升级，原油价格大幅飙升。当地时间 6 月 12 日凌晨，以色列 对 OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动袭击，受此影响，原油现货价格大幅飙升， 6 月 13 日盘内布伦特原油和 WTI 原油价格一度分别上冲至最高 78.5 美元/ 桶、74.63 美元/桶，日内最高涨幅分别高达 12.0%和 13.2%。此前国际原油 价格受 OPEC+增产计划影响而持续低位运行的局面或将有所逆转。 期 报 告 1970s-1980s 两次石油危机的背景均为中东地区冲突局势升级造成的 原油供给锐减，美联储放任通胀和坚定实施定量紧缩的两种截然不同决策 模式和相应收效或已为鲍威尔指明方向。1973 年 10 月以色列发动第四次 中东战争，OPEC 决定联合实施较为严格的石油出口禁运，第一次石油危 机爆发。本轮油价飙升首先传导至美国的工业品出厂价格，并逐步向 CPI 和核心 CPI 传导，至 1974 年 11 月 ...

Kpler：伊朗石油产量将下降，受美国制裁而非地区紧张局势驱动 金十数据6月13日讯，Kpler分析师Homayoun Falakshahi表示，伊朗的石油产量预计将开始下降，但原因 是美国加大制裁力度，而不是与以色列的紧张关系升级。Kpler预计未来几周伊朗的石油产量将减少35 万桶/日。相比之下，此前的预测是每天减少50万桶。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of U.S. military actions and political maneuvers, suggesting that the military is cautious about engaging in conflicts that could lead to significant losses [1][3][4] - It highlights the historical context of U.S. military interventions, particularly under the Bush administration, which were driven by oil interests and resulted in increased national debt [4][20][38] - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of oil prices in U.S. economic policy, linking military actions in the Middle East to efforts to raise oil prices and manage national debt [16][21][38] Group 2 - The piece outlines the geopolitical dynamics involving the U.S., Russia, and Middle Eastern countries, particularly focusing on oil control and the impact on European economies [2][21][35] - It suggests that the U.S. is leveraging conflicts, such as those involving Iran, to manipulate oil prices for economic benefits, drawing parallels to past strategies [36][41] - The article concludes that the current U.S. administration may be repeating historical patterns of using military action to influence economic conditions, particularly in relation to oil and debt management [38][40][41]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has established an oil security system that holds over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stock, which has proven crucial for protecting the global economy [1] Group 1 - The IEA's emergency stockpile is significant for maintaining oil supply stability [1] - The oil security system is a key component in safeguarding the world economy from potential disruptions [1]

国际能源署署长：国际能源署正积极监测以色列-伊朗局势对石油市场的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shifting dynamics in the global payment system, where despite the long-standing dominance of the US dollar, its influence is showing signs of decline, while the euro is gaining ground [1][4][6] - As of April 2025, the US dollar's share in global payments rose to 49.68%, marking an eight-month high, while the euro's share increased to 22.24% [4][6] - The Chinese yuan's share in global payments decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 3.5%, falling to fifth place behind the yen, which saw a rise in demand due to low interest rates [4][22][25] Group 2 - The article discusses the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization," where countries like the UAE, India, China, and Thailand are exploring the use of local currencies for cross-border transactions to reduce reliance on a single currency system [9][11] - The euro, once seen as a strong challenger to the dollar, has struggled due to structural issues within the Eurozone, particularly highlighted by the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [15][19] - The yuan's decline in global payment share is attributed not solely to trade tensions but also to a surge in demand for the yen, which has affected the relative standing of the yuan [22][25][30] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the international status of a currency is influenced by factors such as economic scale, technological strength, and the maturity of financial markets, adhering to the principle that "strong economies lead to strong currencies" [34][36] - The current discussions around de-dollarization reflect countries' awareness of the risks associated with a single currency, aiming to create a more diversified international monetary system where multiple currencies can coexist and compete [36][38]

以总理：突袭"非常成功" 内塔尼亚胡当天发表视频声明说，以色列袭击目标包括伊朗军方指挥部、推进核武器研发的资深科学家以及核设施，行动"取得成果"。 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡13日表示，以色列当天对伊朗的突袭"非常成功"。 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表声明说，等待以色列的必将是"严厉的惩罚"。 美国国务卿鲁比奥说，美国没有参与以色列对伊朗的军事打击。美国总统特朗普表示，美方仍希望与伊朗继续就核问题举行会谈。 据以色列媒体消息，以空军袭击了伊朗西北部的三处军事基地。一名军方人士向《以色列时报》透露，以空军已对伊朗发动了五波空袭。这名军 方人士表示，空袭总计数百次。 以军总参谋长扎米尔13日清晨发表声明说，以军对伊朗发起军事打击是因为"时机已到"。扎米尔称，"任何试图挑战以色列的人，都将付出沉重代 价"。 以军同日发表声明称，近几个月来，越来越多的情报显示，伊朗致力于生产数千公斤浓缩铀，使伊朗能够获得军用级别的浓缩铀，从而在短时间 内获得核武器。尤其是新一轮巴以冲突爆发以来，伊朗在研制核弹适配武器部件方面已取得实质性进展。声明称，近来，伊朗核武器秘密研制计 划"推进速度显著加快"，使伊朗距离获取核武器的目标"大幅接近"。 ...