前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏：日本是否真的能在与美国的贸易谈判中利用持有的巨额美债作为讨价还 价的工具是值得怀疑的。 ...

贸易不确定性升温， 汇率节奏未变 华泰期货研究院 2025年06月06日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 数据来源： Wind 华泰期货研究院 4 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示Call端波动率与Put端持平。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率持续下行，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 8 3M 2025/06/05 3M 2025/03/28 3M 2024/12/31 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250604（%） 20250528（%） 20250507（%） (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元 ...

Group 1: US-China Relations - The recent phone call between the Chinese leader and US President Trump indicates an attempt to ease tensions in US-China relations, with a focus on trade issues [4][5] - The call follows a previous agreement on a 90-day trade truce reached on May 12, but the US continues to impose discriminatory measures against China, complicating negotiations [4][5] - Both sides expressed a desire to manage conflicts and seek new communication methods to avoid serious confrontations [5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's trade war aims to protect US industries and reduce trade deficits, but it has led to significant capital flight from US markets and increased volatility [3] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, raising concerns about the government's ability to service this debt amidst the pressures from the trade war [3] - The call reflects Trump's urgent need to stabilize US-China economic relations to find a way out of the current economic challenges [3][6] Group 3: Taiwan Issue - The Chinese leadership emphasized the importance of the US handling the Taiwan issue carefully to avoid escalating tensions [4][5] - The US has reiterated its commitment to the One China policy, indicating a willingness to respect China's sovereignty [5][6] - The Taiwan issue remains a sensitive topic that could impact the broader US-China relationship [4][5]

操作策略及建议： 1.3360附近做多，止损3352， 目标3392-3412 黄金消息面：周四（6月5日）美盘时段，现货黄金价格显著回落至3359.5美元/盎司附近交投，然而整体走势依然保持强势。虽然美元的小幅反弹对金价上 行构成一定制约，但支撑因素依然稳固，包括美联储降息预期、美债收益率下行、美国财政担忧以及持续的贸易和地缘政治风险。当前市场观望氛围浓厚， 注意力高度集中于即将发布的非农就业数据。从技术角度看，黄金短线仍有上行潜力，若能有效突破3385美元阻力位，则有望打开进一步上涨空间。全球经 济环境的不确定性，特别是美国服务业意外萎缩、就业数据表现疲软以及特朗普政府新关税政策带来的冲击，均为金价提供了强劲的上行动能。此外，大国 间紧张关系、欧美贸易谈判的进展以及市场对美联储降息预期的持续升温，进一步激发了黄金市场的买盘热情，使得金价冲击3400美元重要关口的可能性有 所增加。 黄金走势分析：黄金当前持稳于日线布林中轨（3355）上方，但布林轨道未开口，暗示上行空间受限于前高及上轨阻力3405附近，不宜过分看涨；今天晚上 突破3400至3404，需关注价格能否形成均线多头排列以开启单边趋势。4小时周期显 ...

Group 1 - The countdown to a potential U.S. debt default is underway, with significant economic turmoil expected in the coming months, particularly around the U.S. government's plans to impose tariffs and the expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce [1][2] - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, hitting the debt ceiling, forcing the government to borrow new debt to pay off old debt, which has led to difficulties in long-term bond auctions requiring yields as high as 5% to attract investors [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) since the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a cycle where maturing low-interest bonds must be replaced with high-interest debt, potentially leading to annual interest payments of $1.5 trillion if all debt is refinanced at 4% [2][6] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. debt market have been echoed by major financial figures, including JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned of cracks in the market and the inevitability of a crisis, suggesting that preparations are being made for potential fallout [4][5] - The U.S. trade deficit has dramatically increased from $600 billion to over $900 billion since 2020, reflecting a 50% rise, which parallels the increase in national debt, highlighting the challenges posed by the Triffin dilemma [6][7] - The U.S. may resort to aggressive economic measures against China, the EU, and other global economies to address the debt crisis, potentially impacting domestic technology giants as well [9][11]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.25% at 42,319.74 points, the S&P 500 down 0.53% at 5,939.3 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.83% at 19,298.45 points [1] - Most large tech stocks declined, with Tesla dropping over 14%, Apple down more than 1%, Nvidia down over 1%, and Facebook down 0.48%. In contrast, Google rose 0.1%, Amazon increased 0.33%, and Microsoft gained 0.82% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Zhihu Group rising nearly 13%, Kingsoft Cloud up over 7%, Lotus Technology increasing over 5%, and GDS Holdings up over 4%. However, some stocks like Linklogis and Bawang Tea fell over 9% [1] European Indices - European major indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX index up 0.19% at 24,323.58 points, reaching a new historical high, while France's CAC40 index fell 0.18% to 7,790.27 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.11% to 8,811.04 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.68% at $3,376.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 3.31% to $35.795 per ounce [1] - International oil prices increased across the board, with WTI crude oil main contract up 0.64% at $63.25 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 0.66% at $65.29 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Yields - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.07% to 98.74, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar dropped 38.5 basis points to 7.1755 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield up 6.19 basis points to 3.924%, the 3-year yield up 6.82 basis points to 3.894%, the 5-year yield up 7.13 basis points to 3.995%, the 10-year yield up 3.93 basis points to 4.395%, and the 30-year yield up 0.61 basis points to 4.883% [1] - European bond yields also generally increased, with the UK 10-year yield up 1 basis point to 4.614%, France's 10-year yield up 4.7 basis points to 3.248%, Germany's 10-year yield up 5.2 basis points to 2.576%, Italy's 10-year yield up 3.5 basis points to 3.524%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4 basis points to 3.155% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's proposal to eliminate the debt ceiling in the U.S., suggesting it could lead to a financial crisis for U.S. debt [2][3]. Financial Situation - The U.S. government's annual revenue is $4.9 trillion, while expenditures are $6.8 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of $1.8 trillion [4]. - The current national debt stands at $36 trillion, with interest payments consuming 20% of annual revenue, leading to a debt-to-revenue ratio of 123%, significantly exceeding the 60% warning threshold [4]. Debt Dynamics - The increase in U.S. debt is outpacing revenue growth, with the debt growth rate being three times that of revenue growth, indicating a deteriorating repayment capacity [4]. - Investors are increasingly selling U.S. debt, with holdings dropping from $1.3 trillion to over $700 billion, and projections suggest this could fall to $300 billion in the future [5]. Future Projections - Bridgewater's Dalio estimates that by 2035, U.S. debt could reach $50 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding 30% of total revenue, signaling a potential collapse of the current financial model [5]. - The article predicts a decade of monetary warfare, with a shift away from the U.S. dollar, as other currencies like the yuan and euro seek to capture dollar market share [6]. Political Implications - Trump's approach to fiscal policy is likened to short-term political gains at the expense of long-term financial stability, similar to local officials prioritizing immediate projects over future repayment concerns [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the net deficit by at least $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for U.S. fiscal policy and economic growth [3][11][28]. Summary by Sections Bill Content and Progress - The "Big Beautiful Bill" includes the permanent extension of key provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, additional tax relief measures, and increased spending in defense and border security while cutting expenditures in agriculture, education, and energy [3][11][13]. - The bill is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [11][28]. Tax Policy - The bill extends and makes permanent the major provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduces new personal and family tax cuts, and raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 [13][14]. - It also imposes higher tax rates on passive income for individuals and corporations from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, potentially reaching a maximum rate of 20% [4][14]. Deficit and Revenue Projections - The estimated annual tariff revenue is projected to reach around $200 billion, which could help mitigate the deficit increase caused by the bill, although it will not fully cover the shortfall from tax cuts [5][30]. - Under baseline assumptions, the deficit rates for 2025 to 2028 are estimated to be around 6.4% to 7.0%, with optimistic scenarios potentially lowering the rates slightly [6][30][28]. Economic Impact - The bill is expected to provide a marginal boost to economic growth, with projections indicating a real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5% in 2025 and a potential recovery to 2.0%-2.5% in 2026 due to tax cuts and lower interest rates [7][32]. - However, the long-term fiscal sustainability remains a concern, as the combination of increased deficits and rising interest payments could lead to a significant increase in the national debt [34][38]. Long-term Debt and Interest Risks - The CBO estimates that if the ten-year Treasury yield remains at 4.5%, interest payments could exceed $13 trillion by 2034, significantly increasing the fiscal burden [34][38]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from nearly 100% to 128% by 2034, raising concerns among credit rating agencies about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [38]. Market Reactions and Bond Yields - Recent increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields are attributed to the "Trump premium," reflecting market concerns over the fiscal implications of the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the potential for increased deficits [45][51]. - Despite short-term pressures, the 10-year Treasury bonds are still viewed as having significant investment value, especially in light of potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [52].

以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 于金潼 、中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁伟奥 5月22日，美国众议院以215比2 1 4票的微弱优势通过2 0 2 5财年预算 协调法案"The One , Bi g, Be a utif ul Bill "（大美丽法案）。不同机 构估计，该法案将在未来1 0年内使净赤字增加至少3万亿美元。这个 法案究竟会带来什么影响？ 大美丽法案包括什么？ 5月22日，美国众议院以215比214票的微弱优势通过2025财年预算协调法案"The One, Big, Beautiful Bill"（大美丽法案）。不同机构估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使净赤字增加至少3 万亿美元。主要内容包括延长并永久化2017年《减税和就业法案》的主要条款，并添加额外的税收减免 政策；虽然在农业、教育、能源等领域削减了支出，但在国防和边境安全上扩大了支出，叠加减税政 策，总体上法案让美国政府赤字进一步上行。 其中外国资产税引人注意，法案第899条规定对美国认为 存在税收政策"歧 ...

美国参议院近期审议的《稳定币统一标准保障法案》正引发加密货币领域与金融市场的密切关注。这项被简称为"稳定币法案"的立法提案，被部分人解读为 特朗普政府为稳定币赋予合法地位的战略举措，其深层意图是通过加密货币工具化解美国规模已达36.2万亿美元的国债危机。 稳定币作为加密货币的重要分支，其运行机制与比特币存在本质差异。这类数字资产通过与法定货币或其他传统资产锚定维持价值稳定，最具代表性的泰达 币（USDT）即与美元保持1:1兑换比例。 支持者构想的解决方案逻辑看似清晰：通过发展稳定币吸引全球投资者，发行商将兑换所得美元导入美债市场，从而激活国债交易活跃度并扩大资金池。但 深入剖析即可发现，这种设想存在两个根本性逻辑漏洞。 第一个漏洞是新法案的核心条款对长期美债构成实质性限制。 美国国债按期限可分为短期国库券和中长期债券，当前财政困境的症结恰恰在于长期债务。由于短期国债本质接近现金等价物，财政部无需为这部分债务支 付利息，但30年期等长期债券的利息支出已成为沉重负担——2024年美国国债利息支出已突破万亿美元大关。 更严峻的是，市场对长期美债的需求持续萎缩，而短期品种仍不乏买家。这意味着化解国债危机的关键在于激活 ...