摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，不会排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性。 ...

美国谘商会4月领先指标出现下滑 金十数据5月19日讯，据美国谘商会统计，美国经济前景指数在4月份出现下滑。公布的数据显示，4月 领先指标月率下跌1%，至99.4，这一数据低于经济学家的预期，同时也是该指数两年来的最大跌幅。 谘商会的分析师Justyna Zabinska-La Monica表示："自2025年1月以来，消费者的预期逐月变得越来越悲 观，而建筑许可和制造业平均工作时间的贡献在4月份转为负值，而在观察LEI各组成部分的六个月趋 势时，也存在普遍的疲软，这是增长的警告信号。"（LEI是一种预测性指数。该指数基于10个组成部 分，其中包括制造商的新订单、初请失业金人数、新私人住宅建筑许可、股价和消费者预期等，旨在表 明商业周期的转变。） ...

Candriam的分析师Nicolas Jullien在一份报告中表示，由于美国关税将对美国经济增长产生明显的负面影 响，欧元兑美元似乎将进一步走强。"尽管对通胀的潜在影响更难衡量，但对需求的破坏可能比价格上 涨的直接影响更大。"他表示，美国例外论的终结和对美国资产信心的丧失，应该会使欧元以及德国的 基础设施和国防支出计划受益。 机构：如果关税打击美国经济增长，欧元可能进一步上涨 ...

近日，黄金价格下跌1.3%至1956.79美元/盎司，这一波动主要受到美国经济数据强劲以及债务上限协议乐观情绪的压制。作为全球金融服务领域的领军企 业，KVB PRIME对黄金价格的下跌进行了深入分析，并探讨了其背后的市场动态。 作为全球金融服务领域的权威机构，KVB PRIME密切关注黄金价格走势及其背后的市场动态。其分析报告指出，尽管黄金价格近期承压，但全球经济形势 的复杂性以及地缘政治风险等因素仍可能对黄金价格产生影响。因此，投资者需要保持谨慎态度，密切关注市场动态和政策变化。 KVB PRIME建议投资者关注以下几个方面：一是关注美国经济数据的后续表现，以及其对美联储政策的影响；二是关注地缘政治风险的变化，以及其对市 场避险情绪的影响；三是关注黄金市场的供需关系，以及其对黄金价格的影响。 随着美国经济数据的强劲表现以及债务上限协议乐观情绪的升温，黄金价格近期承压下跌。KVB PRIME作为全球金融服务领域的领军企业，将持续关注黄 金价格走势及其背后的市场动态，并为客户提供专业的市场分析和投资策略建议。在复杂多变的全球经济环境中，KVB PRIME将与客户携手共进，共同应 对挑战并把握机遇。 美国近期发 ...

Core Insights - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, believes that while signs of economic slowdown are evident, a recession is not imminent [1][3] - Bostic anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, driven by a projected economic growth rate of 0.5% to 1% [3][4] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to cautious business investment decisions, which is impacting overall economic activity [3][6] Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Bostic's analysis indicates that consumer confidence is declining, which is a significant factor in the expected economic slowdown [3] - The demand for interest rate cuts may become more pressing by 2025 due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains unchanged, but future rate cuts may be considered as a means to alleviate economic slowdown pressures [4][7] Trade Policy and Inflation - Bostic expressed concerns about the 90-day extension of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting that trade tensions, despite some easing, still create market caution [6] - He noted that while short-term tariff fluctuations may exert upward pressure on prices, inflation remains a critical issue for the Federal Reserve to monitor [6] - The need for the Federal Reserve to maintain policy flexibility to address potential inflationary pressures is emphasized [6][7] Overall Sentiment - Bostic's views align with those of other Federal Reserve officials, who share concerns regarding inflation and unemployment risks [7] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will be influenced by changes in both global and domestic economic conditions, with a focus on balancing economic growth and inflation [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍趋于震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：镍（NI） 核心逻辑：上周金价整体呈现下行趋势，纽约金在跌破 32 ...

Economic Outlook - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over increasing government debt and interest expenditures, with the federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and a projected deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2024, which is 6.4% of GDP [1][2] - Moody's predicts that if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, the federal deficit could increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035 [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the US consumer confidence index to 50.8% in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and a continuous drop for five months [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April [2] Economic Performance - The US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, the worst quarterly performance since 2022, attributed largely to the impact of increased tariffs [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, grew by 1.8%, showing a significant slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Retail Sector Impact - Retail sales in April increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, significantly lower than the growth rate in March, indicating weakened consumer spending [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Best Buy are planning to raise prices on imported goods to offset increased costs due to tariffs, despite warnings from President Trump against passing costs onto consumers [3] Tourism Industry - The number of international visitors to the US decreased by 11.6% year-over-year in March, negatively impacting the tourism sector, which contributes approximately 9% to the US economy [3] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts a 7% decline in tourism revenue for the US by 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - President Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the Fed has opted to maintain current rates, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change [3] Trade Policy Concerns - Analysts express that the high tariff levels, despite recent adjustments, will continue to exert negative effects on the US economy, potentially leading to high inflation, high unemployment, and economic recession in the long term [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy may enter a period characterized by more frequent and persistent supply shocks [4]

Group 1 - The recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, resulting in a significant decline in gold prices, with London gold spot prices dropping 3.66% to $3202.2 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling 3.72% to $3205 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the adjustment in precious metal prices is primarily due to the unexpected extent of the easing in trade tensions, prompting a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, with expectations of improved U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan [3] Group 2 - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1,300 contracts to 161,200 contracts, while the long-to-short ratio rebounded by 1.6% [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains mixed, with key resistance levels providing support, and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy potentially limiting further price declines [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields, as recent political disagreements have impacted market expectations significantly [5]

Group 1 - Former President Biden has been diagnosed with malignant prostate cancer, with cancer cells having spread to his bones [1] - The diagnosis followed the discovery of a prostate nodule due to worsening urinary symptoms, with the diagnosis made on May 16 [1] - Despite being a more aggressive form of cancer, it appears to be hormone-sensitive, allowing for effective treatment options [1] Group 2 - Former President Trump expressed his condolences regarding Biden's health diagnosis and wished him a speedy recovery [4] - Trump has taken actions against Biden's previous policies, including revoking Biden's security clearance and stopping the provision of daily intelligence briefings [5] - Economic data released by the U.S. Commerce Department indicated a 0.3% contraction in GDP for Q1 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022 [5][6]

| 开盘 | 最高 | | 最低 | 昨收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3217.85 分时 王日 | 3240.63 3206.22 分钟 周线 月线 MA | 日线 | | 3201.10 | | VIP | | | | | | | 3239.50 | | | | | | | | 3220.86 | | | | | | | | 3201.10 | | | | | | | | 3181.34 | | 周一（5月19日）亚太盘初，纳指期货跌0.74%，标普500指数期货跌近0.7%，道指期货跌0.71%。 美国30年期国债期货下跌21点，美国10年期国债期货下跌7点。 WTI原油期货跌幅一度扩大至1%，报61.30美元/桶。 | NYMEX原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CLOOY | | | | | | | | 61.90 | 今开 | 61.22 | 61.98 最高 62.44 | 最低 | | | | 6210 持仓 30.62万 日 ...