Core Insights - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, believes that while signs of economic slowdown are evident, a recession is not imminent [1][3] - Bostic anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, driven by a projected economic growth rate of 0.5% to 1% [3][4] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to cautious business investment decisions, which is impacting overall economic activity [3][6] Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Bostic's analysis indicates that consumer confidence is declining, which is a significant factor in the expected economic slowdown [3] - The demand for interest rate cuts may become more pressing by 2025 due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains unchanged, but future rate cuts may be considered as a means to alleviate economic slowdown pressures [4][7] Trade Policy and Inflation - Bostic expressed concerns about the 90-day extension of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting that trade tensions, despite some easing, still create market caution [6] - He noted that while short-term tariff fluctuations may exert upward pressure on prices, inflation remains a critical issue for the Federal Reserve to monitor [6] - The need for the Federal Reserve to maintain policy flexibility to address potential inflationary pressures is emphasized [6][7] Overall Sentiment - Bostic's views align with those of other Federal Reserve officials, who share concerns regarding inflation and unemployment risks [7] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will be influenced by changes in both global and domestic economic conditions, with a focus on balancing economic growth and inflation [7]

基本面： 周一（5月19日）亚盘时段，现货黄金跳空高开后继续震荡，盘中最高再次测试3250一线压力后徘徊，目前交投于3220美元附近。周五（5月16日）金价周五 一度大跌超过2%，致周线下跌近4%，受累于贸易协议带来的风险偏好上升，创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。贸易战的缓解使整个市场的风险偏好回升。 这种转变促使期货交易商获利了结，尤其是在黄金市场，并引发了长达一周的结清仓位潮。 上周早些时候，两大经济体暂停贸易战90天，同时双方将制定结束针锋相对的贸易战的细节。因此，华尔街三大股指实现周线上涨，这主要是由于在经历了 长期的不确定性之后，投资者的风险偏好不断增强。与此同时，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降息的预期。 上周公布的4月份美国消费者通胀率的上升低于预期，消费者价格指数(CPI)4月份上涨了0.2%，使全年涨幅从2.4%降至2.3%。这份报告是个 "好消息"。"对大 多数消费者和企业来说，2025年的通胀应该是可控的。市场预计美联储今年将降息两次，从9月份开始。预计美联储今年将降息56个基点，低于4月份超过 100个基点的预期，当时对特朗普关税影响的担忧最为严重 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced an increase, surpassing $3240 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over global economic recovery and a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest expenses, which raised concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and stimulated demand for gold [1] - The recent decline in gold prices was attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced trade tensions, which diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Over the past three weeks, gold has faced pressure due to reduced concerns over "stagflation" risks and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with current expectations of a rate cut of about 58 basis points [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, as macroeconomic conditions suggest that the Federal Reserve will eventually implement monetary easing, benefiting gold prices [2] - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold and the continuous net inflow into gold ETFs indicate strong demand for gold, even after price corrections [3] Group 3 - The easing of trade tensions and geopolitical risks is expected to continue suppressing safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a potential maintenance of a corrective trend in gold prices [3] - The inflationary effects of tariffs have not yet fully transmitted to consumer prices, but there are risks of rising inflation data in May, which could impact economic performance [3] - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to trade gold without the costs associated with physical gold, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 mechanism [3]

关税冲击波即将来袭！ 随着贸易紧张局势缓和，美股三大指数上周集体反弹，纳指累计大涨超7%。本周即将公布的一系列经济数 据，将全面揭示美国关税政策的真实影响，市场担忧相关数据或将对美股市场造成扰动。其中，标普全球周四 将公布主要经济体PMI指数，将反映美国关税政策对全球经济前景产生的具体冲击。 与此同时，美联储的降息前景也备受投资者关注。根据日程安排，本周美联储官员们将陆续登场，或将释放最 新的货币政策信号。 摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和，但美国通胀预计将从5月开始明显上 升，全年通胀率可能升至3.0%～3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不变。 重磅数据即将出炉 美国密歇根大学最新公布的调查显示，在特朗普政府激进贸易政策的冲击下，美国家庭对经济前景的悲观情绪 进一步恶化。 数据显示，5月美国消费者信心指数初值仅为50.8，为连续第5个月下滑。此前该指数的4月终值为52.2，事前经 济学家一度预期，5月的信心指数会反弹至53.5。 最新数字也创下有记录以来的第二差水平。美国消费者信心指数曾在2022年6月触及50的历史最低值，当时的 通胀失控飙升加剧了人们对经济衰退的担 ...

周周芝道 - 关税战的下一步 20250518 摘要 • 美联储货币政策框架调整为中性偏紧，短期内市场解读为利好，但长期来 看，若通胀持续走高，货币政策将趋紧，若通胀恢复到 2%以内，则会宽 松。未来货币政策是否紧缩或中性，最终取决于通胀水平。 • 关税博弈对市场的影响已基本被消化，美股、A 股和黄金均已回到或超过 贸易博弈最严重之前的点位。黄金与美股呈现反向走势，黄金价格主要受 关税和美股资金避险流出影响。 • 30%的新增关税对中国中低端出口企业利润率造成严重冲击，而中高端企 业议价能力较强，可将部分关税转嫁。即使维持现有税率，中国出口数据 仍将逐渐受到影响，预计四五月份中低端生产和出口量将下降。 • 中国房地产市场长期趋势向下，消费领域虽有结构性变化，但难以实现大 幅增长。传统强预期改善刺激如货币和财政在二季度较难实现，甚至七月 未必有，内需提升是主要板块。 • 今年一季度中国经济数据表现良好，是全球抢出口效应映射。但进入二季 度，中国风险有所走弱，四月份科技估值较高且经济数据开始下滑，需持 续关注贸易战对经济数据的影响。 Q&A 上周全球资本市场的表现如何？ 上周全球资本市场表现各异。中国股票市场相对 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the easing of tariff risks between China and the US has not changed the market's oscillating pattern, with the primary concern being economic expectations [4][5][15]. - Economic data for April shows signs of weakening, with external demand expectations declining and internal demand needing support [4][15]. Industry Configuration - The report highlights that the configuration value of the banking and insurance sectors has further increased, with a recommendation for a balanced investment strategy leaning towards these sectors [6][38]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a strong internal demand but weak external demand, leading to a "strong but not strong, weak but not weak" market condition [21][24]. Automotive Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed new regulations requiring all passenger vehicles to be equipped with automatic emergency braking systems, positively impacting the automotive parts and passenger vehicle sectors [21][22]. - The automotive index is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with upward resistance and downward support due to the current economic conditions [21][24]. - As of May 16, the automotive sector index has risen to 7179.8 points, nearing the upper limit of its historical range, indicating a decrease in configuration value as it approaches previous highs [24]. Public Fund Regulations - New public fund regulations are expected to impose stricter constraints on performance benchmarks, which may lead to significant shifts in market behavior, particularly affecting equity funds [25][27]. - The report notes that the current allocation in the bond market is significantly lower than its benchmark, while the equity market allocation exceeds its benchmark [25][27].

在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a gap down on Monday and continued to decline, showing alternating bearish and bullish patterns, ultimately closing the week with a bearish candle featuring a long lower shadow [1] - U.S. April CPI data showed a mild performance, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations and a stronger dollar, which pressured gold prices. The April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, while retail sales growth dropped significantly from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, indicating increased economic slowdown pressures [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 75.4% probability for a September cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with mutual tariff cancellations, has temporarily alleviated trade friction, impacting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged challenges facing the U.S. economy and the Fed, indicating potential volatility in future inflation. Although he did not elaborate on rate cut expectations, the recent CPI data has intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates [5] - Wall Street's major banks have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut due to easing trade tensions, complicating the impact on gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a corrective phase, having encountered strong resistance at the 3500 level. The recent price action suggests that gold may have entered a fourth wave adjustment structure [9] - A breakdown below the 3202 support level confirmed the start of a C-wave decline, with a potential short-term rebound observed near the 3120 level. The focus will be on whether gold can stabilize above 3120 to initiate a rebound [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the positive changes in US-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of bilateral talks and the potential for a more stable global economic environment [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Michael Spence noted that the US accounts for 25% of global GDP, with 13% of its imports coming from China and 15% of China's exports going to the US, indicating significant interdependence [1]. - The ongoing trade war has negatively impacted consumer confidence in the US, which could lead to disastrous effects on the global economy if not addressed [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's primary tasks include managing employment and inflation, with current inflation pressures being influenced by supply and demand dynamics rather than just tariff impacts [2]. - Spence pointed out that while capital expenditures and tourism are declining, demand remains relatively stable, which could still contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Future of Global Trade System - Three potential scenarios for the future of the global trade system were discussed: a fragmented approach where countries act independently, a scenario where major powers exert their influence, and the most likely scenario where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other emerging markets [2]. - Despite the current US government's anti-multilateral stance, Spence believes that a multilateral system could persist and even thrive without the US, with the possibility of the US rejoining in the future [2].

2025年5月17日上午，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在广东省深圳市盛大开幕。 2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞通过视频连线形式发表主旨演讲。他指 出，全球贸易体系方面，贸易战是互相伤害，必须纠正，未来最有可能的情形是建 立多边体系，欧洲、中国及其他主要新兴经济体支持建立相对合理、可行的多边体 系。从货币政策来看，美联储的货币政策是当前不确定性的来源之一。美联储的首 要任务是稳定就业、管理好通货膨胀，其货币政策会根据不同的情况进行反应，这 是当前不确定的来源。技术方面，中美之间差距在迅速缩小，De epSe ek等一些大模 型在中国出现，未来人工智能（AI）的包容性、普惠性越来越强。 图为迈克尔·斯宾塞 迈克尔·斯宾塞： 非常感谢，很高兴见到各位，也希望下一次会议我可以在现场参加。 提问： 我们是在深圳召开本次会议，聚焦全球经济金融系统创新等话题。想先请教您一个关于贸易战 的问题。中美部分关税在90天内临时暂停执行，我们看到全球股市都在回升，这一举措得到全球市场的 欢迎。这是一个大的进步，但这仅仅是一个开始。我猜测所有人心里都有一些疑问：最差和最好的状况 会是怎样的？未来我们的方向到底是什么？所以 ...