■ 美国并不是全球化的受害者，而是受益者。它必须摒弃零和思维，专注于自身的比较优势。 近年来，单边主义措施如关税和制裁令人担忧地卷土重来。 4月2日，美国掀起了新一轮贸易保护主义浪潮，并已开始产生实际影响。即便是美国的传统盟友欧洲，也在这种市场不确定性加剧的环境中感受到了多边 合作所依赖的信任基础正在被侵蚀。 在这场动荡中，有一点始终不变：中国和美国作为全球最大的两个经济体，肩负着引领全球走向稳定、繁荣与和平的共同责任。 美国重新转向单边贸易措施的核心问题，是对贸易的根本性误解。特朗普政府至今仍执着于美中双边货物贸易逆差，视其为国家衰退的标志，但这忽视了 美国经济的基本结构。 2024年，美国的服务贸易顺差总额接近3000亿美元，这还不包括美国跨国公司海外分支的贡献。此外，美国还拥有诸多优势，如通过发行美元获取的"铸 币税"收益、海外投资回报，以及吸引全球人才的能力，例如，约60%的诺贝尔奖获得者在美国工作，这些都体现了美国在国际体系中的特殊地位。 美国远非全球化的受害者，恰恰是其最大受益者之一。实际上，美国唯一持续存在贸易逆差的领域是货物贸易——而这从来不是偶然。 美国曾主动转向以服务和高科技为主导的经济模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk-sharing mechanisms to support the stable development of foreign trade in the face of rising trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, highlighting the role of export credit insurance as a crucial tool for safeguarding export enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Risk-Sharing Mechanisms - The current global economic environment necessitates a collaborative approach to risk-sharing among various stakeholders to enhance the resilience of foreign trade enterprises [1]. - A comprehensive risk-sharing mechanism can effectively bolster the risk-bearing capacity of foreign trade companies, creating a robust safety net for high-quality development in the sector [1]. Group 2: Promotion of Export Credit Insurance - There is an urgent need to expand the coverage of export credit insurance to strengthen the risk protection foundation for foreign trade [2]. - Insurance companies should simplify the application process and utilize online platforms for quicker insurance procurement, leveraging big data for rapid underwriting [2]. - A flexible and reasonable premium rate system should be developed, offering discounts to companies with good credit records and stable operations, while also reducing costs for those exploring emerging markets [2]. Group 3: Customized Insurance Products - Insurance companies are encouraged to innovate and develop customized insurance products to meet the diverse risk needs of different foreign trade enterprises [3]. - Large enterprises, particularly in high-end equipment manufacturing and engineering contracting, require comprehensive insurance solutions covering various project risks throughout the project lifecycle [3]. - For small and medium-sized enterprises, inclusive trade insurance products should be offered to cover common risks at lower premiums, while specialized products for e-commerce and digital trade should also be developed [3]. Group 4: Deepening Bank-Insurance Cooperation - Exploring a collaborative financing model involving banks, insurance companies, and guarantee institutions is essential for building a risk-sharing financial ecosystem [4]. - The synergy among these entities can enhance credit availability for enterprises, with banks providing financing, insurance companies managing trade risks, and guarantee institutions improving credit ratings [4]. - Establishing information-sharing platforms and regular communication among stakeholders is crucial for real-time risk monitoring and optimizing the risk-sharing model [4].

丰田表示，美国相关关税举措已给企业业绩造成较大负面影响，预计今年4月份和5月份，丰田将损失销 售额1800亿日元。另外，原材料价格上涨也给企业运营带来较大压力。 近日，有日本学者分析指出，因美国滥施关税，日本整个汽车行业将受到极其严重的冲击，日本汽车产 业的合作企业数量庞大，加之其本身又是支柱产业，相关产业链较为广泛。因此，一旦汽车产业遭受重 创，很可能会成为日本经济动荡的重要诱因。 日本丰田汽车公司5月8日表示，受美国政府一系列关税举措拖累，预计公司2025财年（2025年4月份至 2026年3月份）净利润将同比萎缩34.9%。 美国考克斯汽车公司高级主管艾琳·基廷称，汽车库存看起来会"枯竭"，这一现象主要由两方面因素导 致：一方面，消费者赶在关税举措生效前集中购车；另一方面，多数汽车制造商在调整产量和定价策略 的过程中，暂时减少或暂停了向经销商供货。 美国制造贸易战的不确定性也影响了消费者的购车决策。对于打算购买进口汽车或零部件的消费者来 说，关税导致的价格上涨可能让他们推迟购买。同时，美国产进口车也将面临成本上升与其他竞争对手 的双重压力。 无论是福特、通用这2家具有代表性的美国车企，还是从美国汽车销售 ...

中美经贸高层会谈发表联合声明。当地时间5月10日-11日，中美经贸高层会谈在 瑞士日内瓦开始举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间11日 晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经 贸磋商机制。5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，大幅降 低双边关税水平。 关税水平回落至4月2日前。根据双方发布的声明，美国将：1.修改2025年4月2 日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品(包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政 区商品)加征的从价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施,同时保留按 该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；2.取消根据2025年4月8日第 14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。作 为对等回应，中国将：1.相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加 征的从价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施,同时保留对这些商品 加征剩余10%的关税,并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的 ...

在国际政治经济舞台上，美国的一举一动都备受瞩目。近期，美国在经贸、国内政治与社会、国际事务等多方面呈现出一系列新动向，这些动向不仅深刻影 响着美国自身的发展轨迹，也对全球格局产生着重要的外溢效应。 经贸领域：关税调整与经济政策博弈 中美经贸关系的微妙变化 近期，中美经贸关系成为全球焦点。5 月 10 日，两国代表在瑞士日内瓦重启关税谈判，这一谈判被外界视为 "全球贸易秩序分水岭"。美方抛出 "将关税从 145% 降至 80%" 的方案，然而附加条件却直指中国核心利益，包括全面开放市场、解除稀土出口管制、强化芬太尼管控等。这种 "降关税当恩赐，换实质 主权让步" 的逻辑，被美国智库彼得森研究所直言 "荒谬"。从数据来看，即便美方将关税降至 80%，中国光伏、机械、纺织等行业的综合成本仍将高出国际 均价 37%，而美国对华出口的半导体设备、大豆等商品却要求零关税准入 ，这种 "单行道" 式要价难以撼动中方立场。 在谈判前，美国还接连与英国、印度达成贸易协议。英国以消除市场壁垒、扩大进口美国农产品为代价，换取维持 10% 的基础关税；印度则承诺对 90% 美 国商品实施低关税，将两国平均关税差从 13% 压缩至 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering imposing additional tariffs on imported aircraft and parts, following similar measures on automobiles and ships, which could significantly impact the aviation supply chain and related industries [1][2][14]. Group 1: Import and Export Data - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to import aircraft worth $62.1 billion and export aircraft worth $123.6 billion, indicating a substantial trade balance in favor of exports [4]. - Boeing primarily exports aircraft globally but relies on imported parts and materials, highlighting the interconnectedness of the supply chain [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on Aircraft Manufacturers - The potential tariffs could affect two main categories: aircraft imported from Europe and parts supplied globally to Boeing [5]. - Airbus, despite being a competitor, has a significant market presence in the U.S., with models like the A320 and A321 series being popular due to their operational efficiency [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - A single aircraft consists of approximately 3 million parts, and imposing a "plane tax" could disrupt Boeing's global supply chain, particularly affecting Japanese suppliers [8]. - Japanese manufacturers play a crucial role in Boeing's production, with significant contributions to models like the 787, where Japanese firms account for 35% of the production [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The automotive industry in Japan, already affected by U.S. tariffs on cars, could face further challenges if tariffs extend to aircraft, potentially harming both Japanese and U.S. industries [15]. - The U.S. has also announced additional fees for ships, indicating a broader trend of increasing tariffs across various sectors, which could further strain international trade relationships [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The tariff exemption greatly exceeded market expectations, and the tariff trading is capricious, with the consensus expectation likely to reverse. Equities have odds, while bonds require caution. A robust trading framework should be established to guide investments in the year of tariffs. The impact of tariffs on the bond market should also be closely monitored [5][12]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Analyze the So - called "Reciprocal Tariffs"? - The most common analogy is to compare the "reciprocal tariffs" to the continuation of the 2018 China - US trade war, which affects the risk appetite of equity assets and the counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. The intuitive "fast thinking" is that increased tariffs lead to reduced exports, affecting GDP and shifting the interest rate center downward [13]. - However, "comparing to 2018" is a view mainly held by A - share investors. The US economic and investment circles emphasize the 1930s Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act, but its reference value is questionable. The current trade war is a cyclical change in US trade policy, and tariffs are also a political movement to some extent [15][16]. - The market's previous over - pessimistic pricing and the current view that tariffs have quickly failed may oversimplify the complexity of the political impact of tariffs [20]. 2. The Cyclical Perspective of US Trade Policy - Since its establishment, the US federal government has been closely related to tariffs, with the initial goals of maintaining fiscal balance and protecting manufacturing. Economic and industrial changes lead to changes in tariff policies under the political cycle [7][21]. - Tariff policy is a policy that emphasizes regions rather than parties. Trade concept changes often play an important role in the six party realignments in US history [23]. - The current differences in the Trump administration are normal in US democratic politics and do not necessarily mean the failure of the tariff bill. In 2025, few technology companies, ordinary consumers, or manufacturing unions support the current radical tariff bill [26]. 3. The Economic Results of Trade Policy: Doubtful and Unimportant - The economic impact of trade policy can be understood from two aspects: its impact on the economy determines the direction and magnitude of the market, and its feedback on trade policy affects the market rhythm. The economic results of tariffs, both positive and negative, are doubtful [32]. - Historical evidence shows that trade protection policies have limited effects on enhancing industrial competitiveness and may have negative impacts on consumers and the overall economy [37]. 4. How to Set up a Robust and Investment - Guiding Trading Framework in the Year of Tariffs? - Step 1: Set a baseline for the possible final outcome of tariffs by reviewing the historical cyclical tariff policies of the US. - Step 2: Make qualitative predictions, such as the dollar appreciation ratio, the intervention rhythm of administrative departments and Congress, the frequency of opposition cases or lawsuits, and the counter - impact of public opinion and asset prices on tariff policy intensity. - Step 3: Conduct long - short trading if the implied expectation of short - term market fluctuations exceeds the set baseline, and adjust the baseline expectation if new developments deviate from the assumptions [39]. 5. Back to the Domestic Bond Market: Pay Attention to the Technical Attenuation of Tariff Factors - Since March, the bond market has experienced "oversold rebound → trading tariff factors → correction of tariff factors". In May, the bond market is likely to return to the main logic of March, and the reasons behind the "liability shortage" may not have simply ended [7][41][42].

我们理解，良好的开端展示了双方沟通的诚意，关税从 145%的非 理性水平降至目前相对理性水平，这应是双方正常经贸合作的基本， 或是中美经贸谈判的开始，后续谈判或将进入实质性环节。考虑美国 特朗普政府过往的一贯行事风格，后续谈判或存在反复的可能。从美 国特朗普竞选主张，以及美国特朗普政府相关官员的发言，美国特朗 普政府对我国的贸易政策并非基于对等关税政策，而是典型的贸易保 护主义，美国特朗普政府一再扬言，要取消中国最惠国待遇。年初特 朗普团队提名国务卿公布的法案，宣称取消中国最惠国待遇。仅从本 次中美经贸会谈结果来看，在 90 天的豁免期内，美国对我国加征关 税税率已经达到 51%，高于最惠国待遇的平均关税税率；若 90 天的豁 免期结束后，美国继续加征 24%的关税，那么美国对我国商品加征的 平均关税税率则高达 75%。整体来看，目前中美双方或进入实质性谈 判阶段，后续或仍存在谈判空间，最惠国待遇的平均关税税率或是双 方谈判的关键分水岭。考虑美国特朗普政府过往的一贯行事风格，后 续谈判或存在反复的可能，值得关注。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 E ...

这边关税战还没消停，台湾问题又被美国拿出来做文章。特朗普政府最近释放出"弃台"信号。美国债务 危机越来越严重，特朗普着急给经济止损，就想拿"弃台"当筹码，让中方减免债务。美国财长贝森特甚 至提议，用"弃台"换中国大陆免去部分美债。其实早在2015年，奥巴马当总统时，就有人提出过类似想 法。现在旧事重提，也暴露了美国一直把台湾当成战略棋子的真实想法。 美国（资料图） 据中国青年报报道，外交部发言人郭嘉昆重申，对美国关税战，中方不愿打也不怕打。这番表态背后， 是中美贸易博弈与台海局势交织的复杂局面。 2025年3月，美国突然在全球推行"对等关税"，对中国关税税率飙升至145%。美国想靠这招实现"贸易 再平衡"，巩固自己在全球贸易的老大地位。可现实狠狠打了美国一巴掌。美国国债早就超过36万亿， 每年光还利息就得花1.1万亿。财政一年收入才4.9万亿美元，支出却高达6.75万亿，债务每年以1.8 - 2.7 万亿美元的速度增加。 特朗普（资料图） 加征关税这招不仅没达到目的，反而把美国经济拖进泥潭。美国金融市场股、债、汇全下跌，农业、高 科技、汽车这些产业，供应链出问题，产品也卖不动。国内老百姓怨声载道，连英国、日本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of trade cooperation and the detrimental effects of protectionism on global economic collaboration, asserting that mutual benefits and open cooperation are essential for economic prosperity [1][2][5]. Trade Dynamics - The article critiques the prevailing notion in the U.S. that trade deficits equate to losses, arguing that imports enhance national welfare and that halting imports would lead to higher costs for consumers [2][3]. - It highlights that the U.S. trade deficit is primarily driven by its domestic economic model characterized by low savings, high consumption, and high debt, necessitating imports to fill the investment gap [3]. China’s Trade Strategy - China is expanding its diverse and balanced trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with the EU and ASEAN, indicating a shift towards a more resilient trade structure [4]. - The article notes that China's trade with ASEAN reached 1.71 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase, and trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries grew by 2.2% [4]. Economic Integration - The integration of domestic and international trade is advancing, with 87,000 industrial enterprises achieving integrated operations, reflecting a 6.3% growth [4]. - The article mentions that over 2,200 enterprises are leading in this integrated approach, enhancing the synergy between international and domestic markets [4]. Future Outlook - The article concludes that China's ongoing participation in global technological revolutions and industrial transformations will bolster its economic development, countering narratives of economic collapse [5].