证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-29 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 26.68 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）19.00 | / 16.64 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）507 | / 444 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 31.30 / 15.61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 47.3% | | 市盈率 | 24.93 | | 第一大股东 | 李金阳 | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 赤峰黄金(600988) 25 年一季报点评：静待瓦萨成本企稳，金价上行 公司业绩释放有望加速 l 25 年 Q1 归母净利润 4.83 亿元，同比+141% 公司发布 2025 年一季报，受益黄金价格同比大幅上行，公司业 绩释放出色：营业收入 24.07 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

现货黄金突破3350美元/盎司，日内涨近1%。 ...

现货黄金站上3340美元/盎司，日内涨0.29%。 ...

Company Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Lao Feng Xiang reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, with revenue at 17.521 billion yuan, down 31.64% year-on-year, and net profit at 613 million yuan, down 23.55% year-on-year [2] - This performance continues the downward trend observed in 2024, marking the largest quarterly decline in recent years [2] - The decrease in revenue is primarily attributed to the performance of its subsidiaries, Shanghai Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Lao Feng Xiang Silver Building Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Context - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, leading to insufficient demand and weak consumption, which, combined with rising gold prices, has resulted in sluggish gold jewelry consumption [2] - The competitive landscape within the industry is intensifying, with a trend of store closures accelerating [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's total gold consumption was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 26.85% [3] Market Reaction - Despite the rising prices of gold, consumer preference has shifted towards gold bars and other products with stronger value retention, leading to a decline in demand for gold jewelry [2] - Capital markets reflect this trend, with gold-themed ETFs rising over 30% in 2025, while Lao Feng Xiang's stock price has decreased by 6.45% since the beginning of the year, closing at 50.77 yuan per share on April 28, 2025 [3]

在上周盘中创下3500美元的纪录高位之后，金价目前已经回调了超过6%，有分析认为，部分原因是有迹象表明一些贸易紧张局势可能正在缓解。 特朗普贸易战引发的黄金狂热可能有些过了，期权市场、资金流向、技术面等多项指标发出预警信号，都在暗示金价回调的风险上升。 报道指出，上周，SPDR黄金股票ETF的期权交易突破130万份合约，达到史无前例的水平。同时，对该ETF下跌进行对冲的成本处于自8月以来的 最低水平，而隐含波动率却激增，这是一种不寻常的模式。 除此之外，野村证券研究还列出其他两个关键的警示信号，包括： 1、"美联储综合预期资本开支指数"最近跌破-4。数据显示，当该指数跌破-4时，黄金在随后2个月的表现往往不佳。 巴克莱策略师Stefano Pascale表示，特朗普4月2日宣布"对等关税"之后黄金看涨期权的飙升，导致黄金偏斜度指标倒挂，再加上对冲基金多头仓位 骤减，以及金价近期回调，都是短期内对金价持谨慎态度的理由。 Pascale并补充说，黄金的走势与美元和实际利率等"基本驱动因素"已经"脱节"，且技术面释放涨势过度的信号。 不止技术指标释放警示信号 对于巴克莱策略师提及的黄金技术面出现涨势过度的信号，广发 ...

现货黄金跌破3300美元/盎司，较日高回落逾30美元，盘初一度触及3336.46美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, retreating over $36 from its initial high point [1] Group 1 - The decline in spot gold prices indicates a significant market movement [1] - The drop of over $36 suggests volatility in the gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have significantly impacted the retail gold market, with high prices suppressing consumer demand for gold jewelry and prompting a shift towards new product offerings and business models [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Impact - COMEX gold prices reached a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline to $3330.2 per ounce by April 25 [1] - The high gold prices have led to a decrease in sales of heavier gold jewelry and ornaments, as consumers exhibit a wait-and-see attitude [1] - The high price volatility is seen as both a challenge and an opportunity for the gold retail industry, prompting a need for transformation and innovation [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - There is a growing preference among consumers for lightweight gold jewelry, such as bracelets, pendants, and earrings, which are becoming popular among younger demographics [2] - The gold recycling market is also experiencing increased activity, with more consumers seeking to sell gold for cash [2] Group 3: Business Strategies - Companies are adapting to market changes by exploring long-term strategies, such as Zhou Dasheng Jewelry's announcement of engaging in gold forward trading and leasing to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations [2] - Some firms are leveraging technology, such as AI and big data, to enhance their gold recycling processes, offering quick and efficient services [2] - Collaborative product launches with popular IPs are being utilized to differentiate offerings, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Zhou Dasheng introducing unique themed jewelry lines [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The high price environment is reshaping the competitive landscape of the gold retail market, requiring companies to be agile in responding to consumer demand changes and to integrate resources effectively to reduce costs and improve efficiency [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility this week, reaching a high of $3500 per ounce before retreating due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking [2][3][4] - Trump's comments regarding interest rates and tariffs influenced market sentiment, initially boosting gold prices but later leading to a correction as trade tensions eased [3][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies contributed to fluctuations in gold prices, with mixed signals from Fed officials [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action suggests that gold is in a corrective phase after reaching the $3500 peak, with key support at $3260 and resistance at $3370/3371 [10][12][14] - If gold breaks above $3370/3371, it may indicate a continuation of the upward trend, while a drop below $3260 could signal a more significant downward movement [12][14] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, Q1 GDP, and PCE inflation data, which are expected to impact gold prices [9]

加拿大皇家银行财富管理技术策略师Rob Sluymer：金价已"升至我们认为不太适合投入更多资金的水 平"，黄金价格可能出现回调。 ...