美国签订中东 AI 芯片大单，主权 AI 拉动基建投资 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [美国签订中东 Table_Title] AI 芯片大单，主权 AI 拉动基 建投资 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 ht ...

Core Strategy - Nvidia is actively pursuing a diversification strategy to reduce its reliance on major tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [1][5] - The company is establishing "sovereign AI" partnerships with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, aiming to create new revenue streams outside of traditional tech clients [1][2] Sovereign AI Initiatives - Nvidia has secured a multi-billion dollar chip deal with Saudi Arabia's Humain and is collaborating with the UAE to build one of the largest data centers globally [2] - These sovereign AI projects are a crucial part of Nvidia's strategy to diversify its customer base, with multiple governments expressing interest in procuring chips for similar initiatives [2] Support for New Cloud Platforms - Nvidia is supporting emerging cloud platforms like CoreWeave, Nebius, Crusoe, and Lambda, positioning them as competitors to established giants like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud [3] - These new cloud partners gain priority access to Nvidia's internal resources, including consulting teams for data center optimization [3] Market Outlook - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed increased confidence in business opportunities beyond major cloud service providers, predicting that every industry will have its own "AI factory" [4] - This shift represents potential sales opportunities worth hundreds of billions of dollars [4] Competitive Landscape - Despite its diversification efforts, Nvidia's recent regulatory filings indicate continued reliance on a limited number of clients, primarily large tech companies [5] - These tech giants are developing their own AI chips, posing a challenge to Nvidia's market dominance, particularly with Amazon entering the AI training space [5]

金十数据5月18日讯，英伟达(NVDA.O)正寻求减少对大型科技公司的依赖，方法是达成新的合作伙伴 关系，将其人工智能芯片出售给民族国家、企业集团以及微软、亚马逊和谷歌等集团的挑战者。本周， 这家美国芯片巨头宣布与沙特的Humain达成数十亿美元的美国芯片协议，而阿联酋宣布计划与美国政 府协调建设世界上最大的数据中心之一。这些"主权AI"交易是英伟达吸引硅谷以外客户战略的重要组成 部分。英伟达高管、业内人士和分析师表示，这家市值3.2万亿美元的芯片制造商打算在超级规模企业 之外拓展业务。英伟达表示，大型云计算集团占其数据中心收入的一半以上。这家美国公司正在努力支 持亚马逊网络服务、微软Azure和谷歌云的潜在竞争对手。这包括使"云计算新势力"（neoclouds），如 CoreWeave，Nebius，Crusoe和Lambda，成为其不断增长的"英伟达云合作伙伴"网络的一部分。 英伟达寻求拓展大型科技公司之外的业务 ...

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings Overview - As of March, foreign countries and regions held $90,495 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, with a month-over-month increase of $2,331 billion [1] - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, increasing its holdings by $49 billion to $1,130.8 billion, marking the third consecutive month of increases [1][7] - China reduced its holdings by $189 billion, bringing its total to $765.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2][5] Group 2: Changes in Major Holders - The United Kingdom increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $289 billion to $779.3 billion, surpassing China to become the second-largest holder [2][6] - In March, total net inflows into U.S. securities and bank cash from overseas reached $2,543 billion, with private funds contributing $2,592 billion and official funds experiencing a net outflow of $49 billion [3][4] Group 3: Investment Trends and Motivations - In March, overseas net purchases of U.S. long-term securities amounted to $1,832 billion, with private investors net buying $1,460 billion and official institutions net buying $373 billion [4] - Japan's motivations for increasing its U.S. Treasury holdings include currency intervention, leveraging its holdings in trade negotiations, and adjustments in monetary policy [8][9][10] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Challenges - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increasing budget deficits and rising costs of debt refinancing under high interest rates [13][14] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year, marking the second-highest deficit on record [17]

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed should lower interest rates sooner rather than later, indicating a consensus among many [1] - Powell stated that Trump's calls for rate cuts do not influence the Fed's decisions, emphasizing that the appropriateness of rate cuts depends on various economic conditions [2] - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the third time, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50% [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a rebound in import prices for April, while consumer confidence remains low due to concerns over Trump's trade policies [3] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have diminished, with Goldman Sachs pushing back its forecast for a rate cut from July to December [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payments, with a stable outlook [3][4] Group 3 - Moody's projected that mandatory spending, including interest, will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, indicating limited budget flexibility [4] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a projected deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion for the first half of the fiscal year [4] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022 [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that ongoing tariff policies will increase economic uncertainty, potentially leading to higher inflation and unemployment rates [5] - The U.S. has lost its Aaa rating from all three major international credit rating agencies, including Fitch and S&P [6]

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum is "Sharing the Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System" [1] - Sovereign wealth funds are increasingly attracted to investments in hard assets, particularly in digital technology and server hosting, due to their favorable return characteristics [1] - China has proven to be an ideal investment market for many sovereign wealth funds, which have previously invested in major companies like Tencent and Alibaba [1][2] Group 2 - Sovereign wealth funds are seeking long-term investments both geographically and within specific industries and companies, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese market unless there are significant changes in trade regulations [2] - Renewable technologies and climate-related energy investments, such as batteries, power grids, wind farms, and solar power, are key areas of interest for sovereign wealth funds, especially in the context of high inflation [2] - The "Santiago Principles," established in 2008, aim to enhance the understanding and credibility of sovereign wealth funds, promoting capital flow, compliance with host country regulations, and transparent governance [2][3] Group 3 - The "Santiago Principles" serve as a self-regulatory framework for sovereign wealth funds, reflecting a voluntary self-regulation model due to their sovereign nature [3] - Sovereign wealth funds have become a mature component of the investment industry, recognized for their good reputation and significant asset ownership [3] - The self-regulation model and the Santiago Principles are expected to continue playing a vital role in the governance of sovereign wealth funds [3]

Group 1 - Australia's Trade Minister Farrell emphasized the importance of China as a trading partner, stating that China is ten times more valuable than the U.S. in terms of trade, marking a significant shift from previous policies that favored the U.S. [1][3] - In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, Australia's exports to China reached AUD 210 billion, accounting for 38% of total exports, while exports to the U.S. were only AUD 37 billion, representing less than 7% [3][4] - The previous Morrison government adopted a confrontational stance towards China, which resulted in severe economic repercussions, including a 97% drop in wine exports to China due to high tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Australia is seeking to balance its economic relations between China and the U.S., participating in trade agreements like RCEP while maintaining military alliances with the U.S. [4][6] - The shift in Australia's strategy reflects a broader trend among U.S. allies reassessing the costs and benefits of aligning with U.S. policies against China, as seen in the economic impacts on the EU and Canada [6][7] - The global trade landscape is evolving, with China emerging as a key partner for many countries, prompting Australia to view its relationship with China as essential for economic stability [6][9] Group 3 - Future developments may include Australia implementing a "dual-track strategy" to diversify its trade markets while maintaining key exports to China [9][11] - The potential fragmentation of U.S. alliances could increase if the U.S. fails to provide substantial economic incentives, leading countries like the EU and Japan to seek closer ties with China [9][11] - China may leverage its growing influence to propose reforms in global trade rules, challenging the existing U.S.-led trade framework [9][11]

当地时间5月16日，国际三大信用评级机构之一的穆迪(Moody's)宣布，将美国政府的长期发行人和高级 无担保评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 这一决定标志着三大国际评级机构(穆迪、标普、惠誉)全部将美国主权信用评级降至3A以下。 债务高企与利息负担是评级下调的主因 穆迪预计，美国联邦政府的赤字将扩大，到2035年将达到GDP的近9%，高于2024年的6.4%，主要原因 是债务利息支付增加、福利支出增加和收入相对较低。预计到2035年，联邦政府的债务负担将上升到 GDP的134%左右，而2024年为98%。 尽管市场对美国国债资产的需求很高，但自2021年以来，美国国债收益率的上升导致了债务负担能力的 下降。到2035年，美国联邦政府利息支付可能占到其收入的约30%，高于2024年的约18%和2021年的 9%。美国政府总利息负担(包括联邦、州和地方债务)在2024年占收入的12%，而Aaa级主权国家的这一 比例为1.6%。 美国关税政策对美国主权信用水平造成负面影响 穆迪在声明中明确指出，下调评级的主要原因是美国政府债务规模持续扩张与利息支付比率的增加，其 水平明显高于评级 ...

据新华社报道，当地时间5月16日，国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级 从Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 至此，全球三大评级巨头：标普、惠誉和穆迪全部剥夺了对美国的最高评级。美国《新闻周刊》称，这是一个多世纪以来，美国首次同时 失去三大评级机构的最高评级。 ▲国际信用评级机构穆迪16日宣布下调美国主权信用评级 据环球网 ▲美国民主党领袖舒默据环球网 美债吸引力下降 到底是谁的"锅"？ 三大核心原因 导致美国被降级 据悉，标普早在2011年时就指出美国的政策制定变得极不稳定，并将美国长期主权信用评级由"AAA"降至"AA+"，当时还受到了美国财政部的严厉批 评。今年4月，标普在一份报告中暗示，如果未来发生任何使美国财政状况恶化的事情，它可能会将美国信用评级从目前的AA+再下调一级。 惠誉则是在2023年8月时将美国评级从AAA下调至AA+，这是惠誉1994年发布该评级以来首次下调美国信用评级。该机构将原因归咎于"国会频繁发生 的债务上限谈判僵局"。惠誉当时预计，美国将面临"财政恶化"、联邦政府债务可能会不断增长。 穆 ...

当地时间16日，国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布下调美国主权信用评级。白宫通讯主任兼总统助理史蒂文・ 张当日点名抨击穆迪首席经济学家赞迪，认为穆迪下调评级是一项"针对特朗普"的政治决定。 截图 当日早些时候，穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 穆迪在评级公告中表示，过去十多年来，美国政府债务和利息支付比例升至显著高于拥有类似评级国家 的水平，持续的大规模财政赤字将进一步推高政府债务和利息支出负担，美国财政状况很可能会继续恶 化。 史蒂文・张在X网站发文表示："马克·赞迪，穆迪公司的经济学家，曾是奥巴马的顾问以及克林顿的捐 助者，自2016年以来一直是 '反特朗普'人士。没人会认真对待他的'分析'，他一次又一次被证明是错误 的。" 其余两大国际信用评级机构惠誉和标准普尔已分别于2023年和2011年下调美国主权信用评级，目前美国 在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了Aaa的最高等级。 去年9月，穆迪团队曾发布研报警告称，若无实质性减债举措，美国将丧失在全球三大评级机构中唯一 的Aaa评级。穆 ...