比特币突破119000美元，续创历史新高，日内涨近2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

比如， 近日，由 吉林化纤集团 联合 东华大学、中材科技、时代新材、上海电气、北京玻钢院 等9 家科研院所及行业龙头企业共同开发的" 大丝束碳纤维及复合材料规模化制造关键技术与大型风电叶 片产业化 "科研项目保障了碳纤维原丝均一稳定与高效连续制备，攻克原丝高效预氧化碳化技术瓶 颈，推动高性能35K及以上大丝束碳纤维实现稳定量产；建立大丝束碳纤维拉挤工艺仿真模型，同步 开发专用高效拉挤工艺与装备，实现拉挤板材的高性能批量稳定生产；创新建立了材料—结构—气动 一体化叶片优化设计方法，开发结构体模块化预制与壳体一体化成型工艺，构建全尺寸叶片性能精准 高效测定方法，成功研制出系列120米以上超长大型风电叶片。 经鉴定，该项目研发技术达到国际先 进水平，特别是大丝束碳纤维及其拉挤板材制备技术已经达到了国际领先水平 。 此外，氢能储运（高压IV型瓶）、全球风电叶片复苏、光伏热场碳碳复材、低空经济和国产大飞机 供应链等领域的应用渗透，碳纤维后续市场可以期待。需要警惕的是，产能"洪流"来袭。 说明： 本文部分素材来自于 百川盈孚、吉林化纤、碳纤维及其复合材料技术 及网络公开信息，由作者重新编写，系作者个 人 观 点 ， 本 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 上周行业大幅上涨，产业链价格坚挺上行 相关研究： 《产业链上游价格坚挺，下游新增需求限》 20250706 《上周行业反弹，产业链价格维持弱势》 20250629 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 7 17 60 绝对收益 10 24 76 -20% -5% 10% 25% 40% -20% 5% 30% 55% 80% 稀土磁材(长江)指数行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 ❑ 本周精矿价格普涨，镨钕价格在需求端集中招标叠加供给收紧双支撑下 上行，镝价上涨、铽价小幅上调，钕铁硼价格先涨后稳 ❑ 投资建议 1 行业一周涨跌幅统计时间区间为 2025/07/07 至 2025/07/11，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2012/02/17 至 2025/07/11，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc. ...

韩国媒体13日报道，该国近期持续遭遇热浪，白菜、西瓜、萝卜等农产品价格大幅上涨，一个西瓜均价 逼近3万韩元(约合156元人民币)。韩国政府推出一系列稳物价措施，并向市场投放储备白菜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing suspension of sales by major liquor companies, such as Sichuan Tuopai Shede and Shui Jing Fang, reflects a broader effort to stabilize pricing and address the issues of excessive inventory and price wars in the Chinese liquor industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Tuopai Shede announced a suspension of orders for its core product, Tuopai Tequ 2.0, effective July 10, with a date for resuming orders to be announced later [1]. - Shui Jing Fang implemented a full-channel suspension of its core product, Zhen Niang Ba Hao, and is tightening control over e-commerce channels to enforce pricing policies [1][2]. - Shui Jing Fang has taken strict measures against violations, including fines and termination of partnerships, to combat cross-regional sales and maintain pricing integrity [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing unprecedented inventory pressure, with a shift in consumer drinking habits leading to increased market segmentation [4]. - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, have adopted similar suspension measures to stabilize prices, indicating a collective industry response to the challenges faced [4]. - The high-end liquor market is seeing price fluctuations, while competition in the mid-range segment is intensifying, prompting companies to shift from a "channel pressure" model to a "sales-driven" approach [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the suspension measures remains uncertain, as reducing market supply may alleviate downward price pressure but does not address the underlying inventory issues [5]. - The long-term recovery of the liquor industry hinges on restoring consumer confidence, balancing manufacturer interests, and optimizing product structures [5]. - The industry faces the challenge of achieving a smooth transition during this adjustment period while seeking new growth drivers [5].

20年间经历了多次产业周期，让原奶产业很受伤。 独立乳业分析师宋亮告诉第一财经记者，目前乳制品消费市场仍在低谷期，预计今年国内原奶市场的供 需关系仍在调整中，进程有待观望，因此原奶企业面临的经营压力仍存，市场能否恢复平衡，主要还得 看行业去产能的情况。 原奶行业深度调整终于见底。 7月13日中国奶业协会举办的2025中国奶业发展战略研讨会上，国家奶牛产业技术体系首席科学家李胜 利表示，中国原奶产业已经触底，但反转还需要一年左右。 而反复多次的产业周期影响让中国奶牛养殖业损失惨重，行业也在重新审视奶业的发展方式。 行业反转仍需时日 近3年来，国内原奶产业进入深度调整期，原奶价格持续下滑。从2024年底开始，国内就在关注本轮原 奶行业的调整进程，外界普遍认为2025年原奶行业将迎来拐点。 但农业农村部最新价格显示，今年7月第一周内蒙古、河北等10个主产省份生鲜乳平均价格为3.04元/公 斤，同比下跌6.5%，仍没有明显回升的迹象。 在李胜利看来，目前我国奶业已经进入本轮产业周期的底部，但反转需要1年左右的时间。 国家奶牛体系此前走访发现，2025年4月份，国内乳企喷粉的情况好于上年同期。2025年5月中旬开始， ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 时临中报季，关注中药板块业绩表现 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ上涨 1.08%，医药板块延续普涨态势，中药涨幅居中 根据 wind 数据，上周（2025.07.06-2025.07.12）医药生物报收 8096.68 点，上涨 1.82%；中药Ⅱ报收 6451.72 点，上涨 1.08%；化学制药报收 12864.33 点，上涨 1.42%；生物制品报收 6377.28 点，上涨 0.38%；医药商业报收 5152.09 点，上涨 1.06%；医疗器械报收 6254.53 点，上涨 0.81%；医疗服务报收 5880.67 点，上涨 6.46%。医药二级子板块延续普涨态势，医疗服务涨幅最大，中药涨幅居中。 从公司表现来看，根据 wind 数据，表现居前的公司有：启迪药业、九芝堂、 贵州三力、沃华医药、恩威医药；表现靠后的公司有：贵州百灵、康惠制药、 羚锐制药、珍宝岛、太极集团。 ❑ 估值：上周中药板块 PE（ttm）为 27.86X，PB（lf）为 2.31X 根据 wind 数据，上周中药 PE（tt ...

Core Insights - The badminton market is experiencing a significant price increase, with prices for popular brands doubling over the past year, impacting consumer behavior and market dynamics [2][3][12] Price Trends - The price of badminton shuttlecocks has surged from 100 yuan per barrel (12 pieces) last year to 180 yuan this year, indicating a near doubling in price [2] - A specific brand, Yonex, has seen its popular model's price rise from 100 yuan to 180 yuan, often resulting in stock shortages [2][4] Consumer Impact - Consumers are feeling the financial strain due to rising prices, with one badminton enthusiast reporting her regular shuttlecock cost increasing from 50 yuan to over 100 yuan, leading to a significant increase in her overall expenses [3] - To mitigate costs, some consumers are resorting to bulk purchasing or group buying to save on shuttlecock expenses [3] Shift in Purchasing Behavior - The rising prices have led consumers to prioritize cost-effectiveness over brand loyalty, with a noticeable increase in the demand for second-hand shuttlecocks [5][9] - The second-hand market is thriving, with prices for used shuttlecocks ranging from 28.8 yuan to 57.8 yuan per barrel, appealing to budget-conscious consumers [5][9] Market Dynamics - The increase in badminton prices is attributed to a shortage of duck feathers, rising raw material costs, and increased production expenses [12][13] - Some manufacturers are raising prices to maintain profit margins amid rising costs, while others are accused of price manipulation through hoarding and speculation [11][13]

利民股份提到，公司主导产品需求旺盛，代森锰锌、百菌清等高性价比杀菌剂因巴西大豆锈病爆发及渠 道低库存等影响，价格持续走高，产品供不应求；阿维、甲维盐系列产品受氯虫苯甲酰胺抗性增强带动 复配需求增加以及厂家关停、转产导致供应紧张，价格持续上行。 根据2024年年报，利民股份的代森锰锌、三乙膦酸铝、霜脲氰等主要产品市场占有率高达60%-80%，并 有多款产品市场占有率超过30%。 此前，利民股份披露的2025年一季度报告显示，一季度公司实现营业收入12.1亿元，同比增长22.28%； 实现归母净利润1.08亿元，同比实现扭亏。而根据此次业绩预告，今年二季度利民股份净利润也保持在 1亿元以上。 利民股份曾披露一季度业绩增长原因，并提到公司所处行业当前出现的积极信号。公司表示，市场环境 呈现积极变化，据中农立华（603970）原药价格指数监测，4月初较1月初增长1.5%，交投活跃一定程 度上表明去库存化已基本完成，农药价格触底回升，旺季对产品价格的拉动效应开始显现。 利民股份（002734）7月13日披露2025年半年度业绩预告。预计2025年上半年，公司实现归属于母公司 股东的净利润2.6亿元至2.8亿元，同比上升 ...