能源化工期权 2025-06-16 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

煤焦：库存压力较大 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 16 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦价格整体低位震荡运行，反弹表现乏力。现货端， 产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未 有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价的持续下跌，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未 出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。上周煤矿端精煤库存 4 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street investment banks are adjusting their outlook on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a recession from 35% to 30% over the next twelve months [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1% to 1.25% for this year, indicating cautious optimism about the economy's resilience [1] - A key factor in this shift is the significant reduction in tariff policy uncertainty, supported by recent progress in U.S.-China negotiations [4] Group 2 - The VIX index, which measures market fear, has decreased by 18% from its April peak, and dollar financing costs have fallen to a three-month low, indicating a stabilization in the financial environment [4] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. CPI growth in May was below expectations, suggesting that the impact of previous tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than anticipated [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.95 million, but non-farm payrolls continue to show positive growth [7] Group 3 - Corporate capital expenditures are recovering, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders index expanding for three consecutive months [7] - Retail sales in the U.S. are maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, reflecting consumer resilience [7] - The U.S. housing market is showing unexpected recovery, with new housing starts increasing by 5.7% month-on-month, the highest growth rate of the year [7] Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures easing, inflation risks remain, with concerns that new tariff policies could lead to a resurgence in CPI in the coming months [10] - The increase in import costs due to tariffs on machinery and chemical products is expected to raise intermediate goods prices, while the reshoring of manufacturing may lead to higher domestic production costs [10] - The super core inflation, which excludes housing, remains high at 4.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, influencing Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain a 30% recession probability [10] Group 5 - Market indicators suggest a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the end of a three-week inverted yield curve [10] - However, business leaders remain cautious, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that the economy appears prosperous due to massive fiscal stimulus, while policy uncertainty remains a significant variable [10] - The nearing end of the corporate inventory rebuilding cycle and rising credit card default rates indicate that the economic endurance test is far from over [10]

KVB plus发现在全球金融市场的舞台上，美联储的每一个决策都如同巨石投入深潭，激起层层涟漪。 近期，随着美联储官员释放出延长维持利率不变的强烈信号，一场关于未来货币政策走向的大讨论在投 资者和经济学家群体中热烈展开。本周，众人的目光都聚焦在美联储主席鲍威尔身上，试图从他的一言 一行中捕捉到关键线索，探寻究竟是哪些因素最终会促使美联储采取行动，以及这一行动将在何时到 来。 再看美国国内经济状况，虽整体呈现出缓慢降温的态势，但基本面依然保持健康。就业市场方面，尽管 就业增长速度有所放缓，但失业率却连续三个月维持稳定。这一现象背后，移民人数的大幅减少导致劳 动力供应下降起到了一定作用。失业率的稳定，在一定程度上为美联储维持现有利率提供了支撑，使其 有更多底气抵御潜在的通胀压力。不过，价格数据却并未显现出明显的通胀风险，5 月份基本通胀率连 续第四个月低于预期，这无疑给市场注入了一剂 "定心丸"，也让投资者对于美联储短期内降息的预期 愈发渺茫。根据期货合约的定价，市场普遍押注美联储最早也要到 9 月份才会考虑降息。 Principal Asset Management 的首席全球策略师 Seema Shah 的观 ...

Core Viewpoint - Junsheng Electronics, known as the "Merger King," is pursuing a listing in Hong Kong after significant global expansion through acquisitions, but faces financial pressures and declining profitability [1][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Junsheng Electronics was established in 2004 and entered the A-share market in 2011 through a reverse merger [2]. - The company has grown into a leading provider of smart automotive technology solutions, with total assets reaching 67.038 billion yuan as of the first quarter of this year [1][6]. - The company has completed a series of high-profile acquisitions, including the purchase of German PREH and Japanese Takata, significantly expanding its global footprint [2][3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2011 to 2017, Junsheng's revenue increased from 1.462 billion yuan to 26.606 billion yuan, a growth of over 17 times, while net profit grew only 1.6 times [7]. - In 2021, the company reported a rare loss of 3.753 billion yuan, largely due to goodwill impairment [8][9]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant volatility since 2019, with 2024 projections indicating continued financial strain [8][10]. Group 3: Debt and Dividend Policy - As of the first quarter of this year, Junsheng Electronics had approximately 7.239 billion yuan in goodwill and a debt-to-asset ratio of 69.83% [10]. - The company has maintained a cash dividend policy, distributing a total of 863 million yuan in dividends from 2022 to 2024, with an average payout ratio exceeding 30% [11].

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为96.9%，降息25个基点的概率为3.1%。美联储7 月维持利率不变的概率为77.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为21.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 0.6%。美联储到9月维持利率不变的概率为27.5%，累计降息25个基点和50个基点的概率分别为58%、 14.1%。 上周，与美联储政策利率挂钩的利率期货盘中反映出市场对美联储自9月起连续两次降息的押注不断升 温。美国劳工部数据显示，周度首次申请失业救济人数维持在相对高位，显示劳动力市场正在逐步降 温，进一步强化了投资者对宽松政策的预期。 与此同时，另一份政府报告显示，5月美国生产者价格指数(PPI)同比上涨2.6%，与经济学家预期一致， 表明通胀压力并未进一步加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，受唐纳德·特朗普政府贸易与财政政策冲击而剧烈波动的美国国债投资者，本周将 得以窥探这些政策对美联储利率决策的影响。尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其同僚料将在6月17-18 日会议上维持基准利率不变，但交易员将仔细研读经济与利率预测数据，试图从中洞察政策制定者如何 应对当前的不确定性。 上周五市场收盘时，交易定价显示美联 ...

周度报告-黄金 中东军事冲突升级，黄金价格走强 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 15 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 3.7%至 3432 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.4%，通胀预 期 2.29%，实际利率降至 2.11%，美元指数跌 1.01%至 98.2，标普 500 指数跌 0.39%，离岸人民币小幅升值，沪金溢价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价先抑后扬，突破 3400 美元关口，中美高层伦敦谈判，双方达 成贸易框架，并将汇报给领导人等待进展，贸易问题短期没有继 续升级。但随后中东地区地缘政治局势升温，以色列袭击伊朗引 发避险情绪增加，原油价格大涨，金价突破上行，短期市场交易 重点转为以色列和伊朗局势升级，对金价构成利多。且原油价格 大涨也在未来增加了美国的通胀压力，5 月美国 CPI 同比从 2.3% 回升至 2.4%，低于预期的 2.5%，环比增速仅 0.1%，核心 CPI 维 持在 2.8%，环比增速 0.1%，均低于预期，此前能源价格走弱导致 美国通胀下行，目前原油价格已经收复失地，且关税的影响也存 在滞后性，后续美国 ...

文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 美国电池储能系统集成商Powin已向新泽西州法院申请第11章破产保护， 其 资产与债务规模均 在1亿至5亿美元之间 。 据悉，该公司及其债务方分别于6月9日和10日向美国新泽西地区破产 法院提交了破产重组申请。 总部位于俄勒冈州的Powin表示，此举是解决财务负债并保障核心业务的战略举措。第11章破产 保护允许企业在持续运营的同时提出重组计划以偿还债权人。 破产文件显示，包括宁德时代、青岛中集在内的 多家中国企业位列前五十大无担保债权人 。无 担保债权受偿顺位低于有担保债权，如果最终走到破产清算阶段，无担保债权人可能面临欠款回 收风险。 多家中国储能供应链企业成 "债主" Powin长期依赖中国储能产业链，采购范围涵盖电芯、储能集装箱及配套设备。前五十大无担保 债权人中， 前三大债权人分别为：韩国储能企业ACE Engineering、青岛中集普威新能源、宁 德时代 。根据破产申请披露： 宁德时代 ：债务规模4400万美元，宁德时代已在2024年8月2日通过香港国际仲裁中心追讨， 并指控Powin涉嫌转移在华资产； 现任首席项目官（CPO）Brian Kane被任命为新公司CE ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent cancellation or removal of seven companies owned by Zeng Yi has attracted significant attention, raising questions about the underlying reasons and potential impacts [1]. Group 1: Business Decision Transformation - Zeng Yi's actions may stem from a strategic transformation in business, as the evolving market environment necessitates a shift from outdated business models to more promising sectors [2]. - This transformation requires precise insights into market trends, indicating that Zeng Yi's decision was likely made after careful consideration of the pros and cons [2]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Companies often face numerous operational challenges, such as intense market competition leading to significant declines in performance and limited profits, which can hinder daily operations [3]. - Issues like cash flow disruptions may force companies to withdraw or be removed, suggesting that Zeng Yi's decision to reduce losses was a prudent business move [3]. Group 3: Legal Compliance Issues - Companies must adhere strictly to relevant laws and regulations; failure to do so can result in cancellation of registration or removal due to legal compliance challenges, including tax issues and regulatory violations [4]. - Encountering legal challenges can not only harm a company's reputation but also lead to severe legal penalties, which could have financial repercussions for Zeng Yi's enterprises [4]. Group 4: Team Collaboration Issues - The growth of a company relies on effective team collaboration; internal disputes can hinder progress and lead to operational difficulties [7]. - Instability within the team can obstruct the effective implementation of corporate strategies, potentially putting the company's sustainability at risk [7]. Group 5: Future Development Path - Despite the cancellation or removal of these companies, Zeng Yi's future development path remains a topic of interest, with potential for leveraging accumulated business knowledge to create new ventures [8]. - Observers are curious whether Zeng Yi will continue to focus on familiar industries or venture into emerging fields, making his next steps worthy of attention [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the 2025 bank stress tests on June 27, Friday, at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (which is 4:30 AM Beijing time the next day) [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Announcement Timing - The results will be published on June 27, 2025, at 4:30 PM Eastern Time [1] - This corresponds to 4:30 AM Beijing time on the following day [1] - Regulatory Context - The stress tests are a critical regulatory measure to assess the resilience of banks under adverse economic conditions [1]