证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 原油行业事件点评 中东局势紧张加剧，原油价格大幅上升 行业研究·行业快评 石油石化 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 杨林 010-88005379 yanglin6@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520120002 证券分析师： 薛聪 010-88005107 xuecong@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520120001 证券分析师： 董丙旭 0755-81982570 dongbingxu@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980524090002 评论： 伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡，国际原油供给或受冲击 2025 年 6 月 22 日，美国对伊朗核设施发动了空袭。在美国袭击发生后，伊朗总统及外长均做出强硬表态。 中央广播电视总台记者当地时间 22 日获悉，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出 结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部的波斯湾，是海湾地区石油输往世界各地 的唯一海上通道。2024 年，通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with domestic oil funds experiencing a surge in trading volume and premiums [2][3][6]. Oil Price Movement - Following military conflicts between Iran and Israel, international oil prices have seen a notable rise, with WTI crude oil futures opening at $78 per barrel, up 5.6%, and Brent crude oil futures opening at $81.4 per barrel, up 5.7% on June 23 [3][10]. - Year-to-date, WTI and Brent crude oil futures have increased nearly 8% from their initial prices, reaching highs of $75.74 and $78.5 per barrel, respectively [3][11]. Fund Performance - Domestic oil funds, such as the Jiashi Oil LOF and Southern Oil LOF, have seen significant price increases, with Jiashi Oil reaching a limit-up on June 23 [6][9]. - As of June 23, Jiashi Oil LOF had a real-time premium of nearly 18%, with a transaction volume of 1.386 billion yuan, while Southern Oil LOF had a premium exceeding 7% and a transaction volume of nearly 800 million yuan [9]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current situation is characterized by high war premiums due to the escalating conflict, combined with a traditional demand peak for oil [6][10]. - The market anticipates that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to potential oversupply risks from OPEC+ production increases and a decrease in oil demand expectations [2][11]. Geopolitical Factors - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, could lead to sustained upward pressure on oil prices, with estimates suggesting prices could soar to around $130 per barrel if the strait is blocked [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil supply dynamics are crucial for future price movements, with the market closely monitoring Iran's actions and OPEC's production strategies [10][11].

美国轰炸伊朗后关注冲突演变路径 周日美国轰炸伊朗福尔多与纳兹坦核设施,以-伊冲突有所升级, 但伊朗仍然表现克制,今日内塔尼亚胡首次提到停火目标,冲突同样 也有降温迹象。6 月 22 日美军轰炸后以伊冲突未来演变路径: 1.乐观情景:伊朗象征性发射导弹到底攻击美军中东基地宣称胜 利(2020年苏莱曼尼被炸后反应)或不回应仍把攻击局限于与以色 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 品种 原油 震荡 偏多 观望 震荡 偏多 观望 EB 偏空 偏多 观望 PX 偏空 偏多 观望 PTA 观望 震荡 偏多 PP 偏空 偏多 观望 塑料 甲醇 偏多 偏多 观望 震荡 偏多 观望 EG 偏空. 橡胶 震荡 空単持有 偏空 偏多 PVC 如载 BR 橡胶 偏空. 偏多 观望 板块观点汇总 列的互相攻击,并且伊朗石油生产与发运未受冲突影响。以美目标仍 是对伊朗去核和让伊朗重回谈判桌。最终通过以色列停火给出台阶或 他国斡旋后再度开启谈判,最终达成协议。在这种情景下,原油价格 将随着冲突结束再度大幅回落，在 OPEC+增产周期下从哪来到哪去, 再度回落至 60 美元（WTI）。 2.中性情景:伊朗攻击美军中东基地,引发美国继续介入以伊 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC predicts a downward trend in oil prices by the fourth quarter, assuming no disruptions in oil supply, as OPEC+ resumes production and demand decreases [1] Group 1 - The expectation of falling oil prices is linked to the recovery of production levels by OPEC+ [1] - A decrease in demand is also anticipated to contribute to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is considered a high-risk, low-probability scenario due to multiple constraints affecting Iran's oil exports and its economic partnerships [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, stocks in the A-share port shipping, oil service facilities, and oil extraction sectors surged, with companies like Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang hitting their daily price limits [1]. - International oil prices initially spiked over 6% but later turned negative, with WTI crude falling to $73.47 per barrel and Brent crude to $75.21 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route for oil exports, with approximately 20 million barrels per day passing through, accounting for over 25% of global maritime oil trade [2]. - About 84% of the oil and products transported through the Strait are destined for Asian markets, with India, Japan, China, and South Korea being the primary importers [2]. Group 3: LNG Trade and Risks - The Strait accounts for over 20% of global LNG trade, with 85% of these deliveries heading to Asia, while Europe has a relatively limited exposure [3]. - Potential disruptions in LNG transport could lead to increased competition for spot LNG in Asia, resulting in upward pressure on gas prices globally [3]. Group 4: Alternative Transport Routes - The market is evaluating alternative transport routes and ports, with limited capacity in existing pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia can handle 5 million barrels per day, but only 2.6 million barrels per day can be rerouted in case of a blockade [4][5]. Group 5: Economic Implications for Iran - Iran currently exports over 1.6 million barrels per day through the Strait, and any blockade would severely impact its economy and its partners, particularly Qatar, which relies heavily on this route for LNG exports [7]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the current oversupply of crude oil may not be significantly altered by this crisis, as OPEC's production increases and global economic weakness persist [8].

地缘主导原油短期走势 摘 要： OPEC+维持增产的立场不变,5 月 OPEC+增产未达预期。 美国钻井数经历了长期平台之后的下滑，这意味着美国原 油产量很可能难以维持。前期美伊陆续出现对炼厂为主的 能源基础设施袭击，但尚未对原油生产产生实质影响。在 军事冲突持续的背景下供应受到扰动的预期始终难以证 伪。若后期冲突缓解，地缘溢价有望回落。短期重点关注 美国空袭后伊朗回应情况及伊朗外交成果。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 原油周度跟踪报告 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油大幅上涨。SC2508 周度开 530，最高 582，最低 508，收盘 566，周度涨 45 或 8.82%。08 合约大幅上涨。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+连续三月计划增加产量 OPEC 月报：报告中显 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The current focus in the petrochemical sector is on crude oil prices, which are primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, including developments in Iran, U.S. military actions, and negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz [2] - This week, the petrochemical index performed relatively well, closing at 2248.68 points, with a decrease of 1.03% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector saw the best performance with a rise of 4.53% [3][2] - Crude oil prices have increased this week, with a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and an increase in refined oil inventories [5][10] - Polyester prices, particularly for polyester filament yarn, have risen, with inventory days decreasing and operating rates declining in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [12][18] - Polyolefin prices remained stable, with a decrease in inventory levels during the week [20][24] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have risen, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing and refined oil inventories increasing [5][10] - As of June 20, Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at $76.52 per barrel and €40.94 per MWh, respectively, marking increases of 4.1% and 9.0% compared to the previous week [8] Polyester - Polyester filament yarn prices have increased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 7150, 8350, and 7430 yuan per ton, respectively, showing price differentials that have expanded [14][12] - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, with operating rates at 90.6% and 60.7% for filament yarn and downstream weaving machines, respectively [18][12] Polyolefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene were 7700 and 8076 yuan per ton, with slight changes of 0% and -0.20% respectively [24] - Polyolefin inventory stood at 740,000 tons, down by 70,000 tons from the previous week [24]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil has risen above $75 per barrel, with an intraday increase of 0.65% [1]

原油市场持续上行，面临关键阻力区的挑战，止盈时机是否已成熟？点击查看详细分析！ 相关链接 原油短线收敛，阻力压制明显？ ...

Group 1 - India's crude oil imports in May increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 23.3 million tons [1]