另外海外方面，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长 Beth Hammack,在 4 月 24 日发言时表明如果有明确经济走弱方面的证据， 美联储最早可能在 6 月采取降息的行动。受此消息的推动，海外市场定价降息预期的程度提升，10 年期美债利率有所 回落。若短期贸易冲突舆情不继续加剧，我们预期海外资金风险偏好会有所回升。所以对于未来一周，在国内外政策 端和情绪面的支持下，我们战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和电子等板块。 本周央行通过 7 天逆回购投放了 8820 亿元，到期 8080 亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净投放 740 亿元。短端 1 周 SHIBOR 和 DR007，分别报 1.638%和 1.6587%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 5.29 BP。1 个月 SHIBOR 和 3 个月 SHIBOR 分别报 1.747%和 1.75%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 1.1 BP。 结合经济面和流动性来看，对于未来一周，我们建议核心仓位维持在大盘价值，而战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和 电子等板块。从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，4 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型 对 4 月份 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，智谱发布 GLM- 4-32B-0414 系 列 — — AI 动态汇总 20250421》 - 2025.04.23 《国家队交易特征显著，短期指数仍交 易补缺预期，TMT 类题材仍需等待—— 行业轮动周报 20250427》- 2025.04.21 《小市值强势，动量风格占优——中邮 因子周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《基本面与量价共振，如遇回调即是买 点——微盘股指数周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《Meta LIama 4 开源，OpenAI 启动先 锋计划——AI 动态汇总 20250414》 - 2025.04.15 《融资盘被动爆仓导致大幅净流出， GRU 模型仍未配置成长——行业轮动周 报 2025 ...

Group 1 - The overall market in Q1 exhibited a range-bound pattern, with a brief pullback at the beginning of the year, followed by a structural rally led by AI and robotics after the Spring Festival, supported by policy initiatives from the previous quarter [1] - The trade war may cause short-term disruptions to exports, but in the long term, tariffs will not hinder the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, and the current allocation value of A-shares remains high, with incremental capital expected to continue increasing its allocation to Chinese equity assets [1] - The domestic photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 39.47 GW in January-February, a year-on-year growth of 7.49%, while the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 73.6 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5% [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty of overseas market policies impacted the market at both the beginning and end of the quarter, with a rebound in the tech sector as the technology gap between domestic and overseas markets narrowed significantly [3] - The upcoming second quarter will face significant uncertainty due to the impact of overseas tariff policies on global trade and supply chains, with a focus on corporate profitability during the earnings season [4] - Companies with healthy free cash flow are expected to have higher dividend potential and better safety in cash turnover under severe shocks, reflecting their operational resilience and pricing power [4]

2025 年 4 月 28 日 总量研究 市场波动温和提升，杠铃组合或占优 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20250428 要点 上周市场核心观点： 上周（2025.04.21-2025.04.25，下同）A 股窄幅震荡，市场整体表现不佳。主 要宽基指数量能维持近期低位，量能择时指标仍维持谨慎信号。资金面方面，ETF 资金周度净流出，大盘宽基 ETF 为净流出主要方向。市场波动方面，主要宽基 指数截面波动率、时序波动率环比上周皆有上升。 从市场大类因子表现来看，上周市场动量因子占优。结合上证 50 指数层面表现 的相对低迷来看，后市流动性延续宽松背景下，小市值或持续占优。确定性方面， 红利优势仍将维持。"红利+小盘"杠铃组合或为市场探寻方向背景下获取相对 收益的最优选择。 上周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指上涨 0.56%，上证 50 下跌 0.33%，沪深 300 上涨 0.38%，中证 500 上涨 1.20%，中证 1000 上涨 1.85%，创业板指上 涨 1.74%，北证 50 指数下跌 2.16%。 截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中 ...

中国工程院院士、温州医科大学校长李校堃在专题报告中提出，干细胞与生长因子协同研发是我国 抢占全球技术制高点的关键，相关市场规模已突破1300亿元。与会专家一致认为，细胞治疗正从疾病治 疗向精准健康管理延伸，业界需通过标准化生产、智能化监管完善产业链闭环。 科技日报讯 （记者王禹涵）记者4月25日获悉，第二届陕西省细胞产业创新大会日前在陕西省西安 市召开。大会以"聚焦细胞前沿，共筑产业新程"为主题，正式揭牌陕西国际细胞基因产业转化基地，并 发布全国首个省级细胞制备中心建设标准。 目前，陕西已汇聚了百余家生物医药企业，形成覆盖存储、研发、生产等环节的完整链条。西安交 通大学副校长柴渭表示，中国西部创新港将深化产学研协作，推动细胞产业向智能制造升级。陕西省干 细胞学会理事长王茜介绍，依托陕西（九州）干细胞科技产业园及国际转化基地，陕西省将加速培育万 亿级产业集群，力争成为全国细胞产业创新策源地。 本届大会由西安交通大学与陕西省干细胞学会联合主办，吸引了10余位院士、近50家产业链企业以 及超1500名参会者齐聚西安。会上，陕西国际细胞基因产业转化基地同步揭牌四大核心平台，即国家干 细胞转化资源库（西北分库）、国家级 ...

Quantitative Models and Factors Summary Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The liquidity factor is based on the market's liquidity conditions and the effectiveness of the main fund factor[12] - **Construction Process**: The model selects industries such as computers, electronics, machinery, electrical equipment and new energy, communications, and automobiles based on the liquidity factor. The recommended weight for the main fund factor is 5%[12] - **Evaluation**: The effectiveness of the main fund factor has stopped declining and is beginning to recover as market liquidity becomes abundant again[11][12] Model Name: Long-term Prosperity Expectation - **Construction Idea**: This factor serves as a proxy variable for prosperity investment[16] - **Construction Process**: The model selects industries such as non-bank finance, non-ferrous metals, electric power and utilities, steel, home appliances, and electronics. The recommended weight is 10%[16] - **Evaluation**: The effectiveness of this factor has recently declined, and the clustering effect has not formed[16] Model Name: Short-term Prosperity Expectation - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on short-term prosperity expectations, particularly in domestic demand[20] - **Construction Process**: The model selects industries such as home appliances, basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, automobiles, machinery, and national defense. The recommended weight is 30%[20] - **Evaluation**: The short-term prosperity expectation factor shows significant upward movement in excess returns[20] Model Name: Momentum Reversal - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on long-term low and short-term strong defensive sectors[23] - **Construction Process**: The model tracks one-month momentum and selects industries such as electric power and utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, retail, banking, real estate, and transportation. The recommended weight is 10%[23] - **Evaluation**: The model suggests tracking defensive sectors with long-term low and short-term strong performance[23] Model Backtesting Results - **Liquidity Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Long-term Prosperity Expectation**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[18] - **Short-term Prosperity Expectation**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[22] - **Momentum Reversal**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[25] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Financial Report Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the quality of financial reports[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to select industries such as banking, non-bank finance, transportation, and construction[11] - **Evaluation**: The financial report quality factor has shown concentrated absolute returns recently[11] Factor Name: Correlation Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the correlation between industries[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to analyze industry rotation and select industries based on their correlation[11] - **Evaluation**: The correlation factor has shown concentrated absolute returns recently[11] Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the momentum of industries[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to analyze industry momentum and select industries based on their momentum[11] - **Evaluation**: The momentum factor has shown concentrated absolute returns recently[11] Factor Name: Main Fund Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the main fund flows in the market[11] - **Construction Process**: The factor is used to analyze the effectiveness of main fund flows and select industries based on their fund flows[11] - **Evaluation**: The effectiveness of the main fund factor has stopped declining and is beginning to recover[11] Factor Backtesting Results - **Financial Report Quality Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Correlation Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Momentum Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14] - **Main Fund Factor**: Excess return of the long position is shown in the chart[14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of increased fat accumulation in middle-aged individuals, particularly focusing on the role of adipose progenitor cells (APCs) and their enhanced ability to generate new fat cells as people age [1][3][6] Group 1: Mechanisms of Fat Accumulation - The increase in individual fat tissue occurs through two main processes: hypertrophy (enlargement of fat cells) and adipogenesis (generation of new fat cells) [3] - Contrary to previous beliefs that APCs decrease in proliferation with age, recent studies show that APCs in middle-aged individuals actually become more active, leading to increased fat cell generation [3][5] Group 2: Research Findings - In studies involving male mice aged 12 months (equivalent to approximately 45 years in humans), significant increases in body weight and fat tissue were observed, with visceral fat increasing by 4.6 times and subcutaneous fat by 2.8 times [3] - Over 80% of the fat cells in the visceral fat tissue of these older mice were newly generated, indicating a robust adipogenesis process [3] Group 3: Identification of New Cell Types - Researchers identified a new subgroup of adipose progenitor cells, termed CP-A cells, which emerge around 9 months of age in mice and peak at 12 months [5] - These CP-A cells exhibit strong proliferation and differentiation capabilities, contributing to the active generation of fat cells in middle-aged individuals [5][6] Group 4: Implications for Human Health - Similar CP-A cell populations were found in human adipose tissue, suggesting that humans may experience analogous changes in fat cell dynamics as they age [6] - The study identified the leukemia inhibitory factor receptor (LIFR) as a crucial molecule for fat generation in CP-A cells, indicating potential therapeutic targets for preventing middle-aged obesity [6]

一、本周指数增强组合表现 沪深300指数增强组合本周超额收益0.77%，本年超额收益3.14%。 中证500指数增强组合本周超额收益1.14%，本年超额收益3.91%。 中证1000指数增强组合本周超额收益0.79%，本年超额收益5.21%。 二、本周选股因子表现跟踪 沪深300成分股中3个月盈利上下调、标准化预期外盈利、单季净利同比增速 等因子表现较好。 中证500成分股中预期PEG、BP、标准化预期外收入等因子表现较好。 中证1000成分股中预期净利润环比、预期PEG、单季超预期幅度等因子表现 较好。 公募基金重仓股中一年动量、3个月盈利上下调、单季净利同比增速等因子 表现较好。 三、本周公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 沪深300指数增强产品本周超额收益最高2.02%，最低-0.56%，中位数 0.45%。 中证500指数增强产品本周超额收益最高1.36%，最低-0.28%，中位数 0.59%。 中证1000指数增强产品本周超额收益最高1.44%，最低-0.17%，中位数 0.78%。 主 要 结 论 一 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 国信金工指数增强组合的构建流程主要包括收益预测、风险控制和组合优化三块， ...

广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 ETF市场概况： 指数化投资理念愈发受到投资者认可，ETF产品凭借透明、低费率、交易便捷等优势，成为居民资产配置的重要工具，ETF 规模持续创新高，ETF资金流变动逐渐成为市场中的关注重点。 ETF交易机制特点： ETF具有独特的双层交易机制，即一级市场的申购赎回和二级市场的买卖交易，一级申赎指用一篮子股票换取ETF份 额，申赎会直接增减ETF的总份额。本报告旨在针对申赎导致的ETF资金流数据，探索用于ETF轮动的配置效果。 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券 资深金工分析师 陈原文 风险提示： 本专题报告所述模型用量化方法通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，所得结论与规律在市场政策、环境变化时可能存在失效风 险；策略在市场结构及交易行为的改变时有可能存在策略失效风险；因量化模型不同，本报告提出的 ...

广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券 资深金工分析师 陈原文 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 ETF市场概况： 指数化投资理念愈发受到投资者认可，ETF产品凭借透明、低费率、交易便捷等优势，成为居民资产配置的重要工具，ETF 规模持续创新高，ETF资金流变动逐渐成为市场中的关注重点。 ETF交易机制特点： ETF具有独特的双层交易机制，即一级市场的申购赎回和二级市场的买卖交易，一级申赎指用一篮子股票换取ETF份 额，申赎会直接增减ETF的总份额。本报告旨在针对申赎导致的ETF资金流数据，探索用于ETF轮动的配置效果。 ETF申赎资金流因子构建： 根据资金维度的不同，可以独立计算单只ETF的资金特征，也可以汇总跟踪相同指数的不同的ETF的资金流数 据，还可以基于PCF清单中的成分股名单及其权重，将ETF的资金流数据下沉到具体的股票 ...