投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡下跌。消息面，中东地缘危机爆发，市场担忧原因供应问题以及全球 需求下行风险，市场情绪走弱。不过关税战冲击下外需走弱已经在市场预期之 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, is impacting global oil prices and supply chains, which may negatively affect export-dependent sectors in A-shares like electronics and home appliances. However, gold and oil sectors may benefit from this situation as investors seek safe havens [3] - Domestic policies are becoming more favorable, with the central bank injecting 1.4 trillion yuan in liquidity over ten days, benefiting banks and brokerages. Upcoming events like the Lujiazui Forum may lead to further policy support, such as interest rate cuts or consumption stimulus [3] Group 2: Policy Impacts - The real estate sector is seeing a relaxation of restrictions, with cities like Guangzhou lifting purchase and sale limits, which may provide some relief to related industries like building materials and home furnishings, although significant price increases are not expected due to the ongoing "housing is for living in, not for speculation" policy [3] - The regulatory environment for technology is tightening, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, which remain policy priorities, but high valuations may require a wait for corrections before investment [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around the 3400-point mark, showing signs of a potential downward adjustment with key support levels identified between 3350 and 3370 points. A rebound is possible if the market stabilizes, as liquidity remains abundant [4] Group 4: Fund Flows - Recent shifts in major funds indicate a rotation, with increased investments in brokerages and innovative pharmaceuticals, while the new energy vehicle sector is experiencing significant sell-offs due to high valuations. Northbound funds are steadily accumulating bank stocks, indicating a preference for high-dividend investments [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to include defensive assets like gold and oil in their portfolios due to the uncertain geopolitical climate, with specific stocks like Shandong Molong and Western Gold showing potential [7] - Capitalizing on policy benefits by focusing on leading stocks in the brokerage and real estate sectors is recommended, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing high prices [7] - Long-term investments in sectors like AI computing, humanoid robotics, and low-altitude economy are encouraged, as these areas are expected to provide opportunities despite short-term volatility [8]

智通财经APP获悉，据港交所6月13日披露， 金叶国际集团有限公司(简称： 金叶国际)向港交所创业板递交上市申 请，同人融资有限公司为独家保荐人。 | 编着 | .. | 编纂 股股份(視乎[編纂]行使與合而定】 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编纂 數目 | : | [编纂]股股份(可予重新分配) | | 编纂 數目 | .. | [编纂]股股份(可予重新分配及視乎[编纂]行使 | | | | 與否而定) | | [編纂] | .. | 每股[编纂]不多於[编纂]及預期每股[编纂]不少 | | | | 於[编纂]港元,另加1%經紀佣金、0.0027% | | | | 證監會交易徵費、0.00015%會財局交易徵費 | | | | 及0.00565%聯交所交易費(須於申請時以港 | | | | 元繳足,多繳款項可予退還) | | 面值 | .. | 每股股份0.01港元 | | 【湯景】 | | : [编纂] | | | 2023/24財年 | 2024/25財年 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 干港元 | 千港元 | | 收入。 | 123,010 | 154,534 | ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, highlighting emerging growth directions in the textile and apparel industry [10][11] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.1% from June 9 to June 13, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 0.5 percentage points [4][10] - The report identifies specific companies and sectors within the textile and apparel industry that are expected to benefit from the recovery, including outdoor sports brands and home textiles [10][11] Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector showed a mixed performance, with the SW apparel and home textiles index declining by 1.0% and the SW textile manufacturing index down by 1.4%, both underperforming the SW All A index [4][10] - Recent industry data indicates that from January to April 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles reached 493.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [21][24] - In terms of exports, from January to May 2025, China exported textiles and apparel worth 116.67 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with textile yarns, fabrics, and products accounting for 58.48 billion USD, up 2.5% [27][28] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and 361 for outdoor sports, as well as home textile brands like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles [10][11] - Notable mentions include Nobon Co., which is highlighted for its growth potential in the personal care and home cleaning sectors, and Zhejiang Natural, which is recommended for its outdoor equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The report suggests that large OEMs like Huayi and Shenzhou have already established independent dual-circulation production layouts, making them less susceptible to tariff impacts and positioning them for growth [9][10] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recent recovery in textile exports is primarily due to the resumption of previously paused orders rather than a significant increase in new orders, indicating a structural rather than a broad-based recovery [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of domestic consumption recovery as a critical driver for the textile and apparel sector in 2025, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate consumer spending [10][11] - The report also discusses the impact of international trade dynamics, particularly the ongoing challenges posed by unilateral tariffs from the U.S. and the recent legal rulings affecting these tariffs [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the financial data for May indicates a mixed outlook for the Chinese economy, with M2 growth suggesting ample market liquidity while structural changes in social financing raise concerns about effective demand [1][12]. Group 2 - M2 growth remains at a relatively high level, indicating a stable monetary policy that supports economic stability and reflects strong deposit willingness among residents and enterprises, suggesting confidence in future economic prospects [5][11]. - The structural changes in social financing show an increase in direct financing methods like corporate and government bonds, indicating effective government policies to support the real economy, but also highlight challenges in effective demand [7][11]. - The growth in RMB loans, particularly in corporate long-term loans, signals increased investment willingness among enterprises, while fluctuations in household loans, especially long-term loans, may indicate changes in the real estate market and consumer confidence [9][11]. Group 3 - The financial data suggests that a prudent monetary policy will continue to play a crucial role in providing necessary funding support for economic recovery, with expectations of flexible use of various monetary policy tools by the central bank [11]. - The focus on structural optimization in financial data indicates that policies are directing funds towards weak areas and key sectors of the real economy, such as technology innovation and green development, which may benefit industries aligned with national strategic directions [11]. - There is a need for further stimulation of effective demand, as some indicators suggest that the internal growth momentum of the economy requires more coordinated fiscal and industrial policies to truly boost investment and consumption [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate at 4.25%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and concerns over inflation and global geopolitical tensions [1][3][10] Economic Environment - The UK economy is facing a complex situation with a weakening job market and slowing wage growth, yet inflation remains above the Bank's target of 2% [3][4] - Global factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tech decoupling are impacting the UK's economic landscape, making it more challenging for the Bank to adjust interest rates [6][7] Monetary Policy Considerations - The current stance of the Bank of England is characterized as a "tactical wait," as inflation has not sufficiently decreased, and there are risks associated with lowering rates too quickly [3][4] - The Bank's decision to keep rates steady is seen as a strategy to control inflation expectations and avoid triggering a new wave of inflation or asset bubbles [4][6] Structural Economic Issues - The UK economy is losing growth drivers, with diminishing contributions from traditional sectors like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors are lagging behind competitors [7][9] - The government's limited fiscal space and reliance on the Bank's monetary policy for economic stimulus further complicate the situation [7][9] Market Expectations - Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential rate cuts, but the Bank of England is entering a "cautious easing" phase, where minor adjustments may not yield significant effects [9][10] - The upcoming months will be critical for assessing the Bank's ability to navigate economic challenges and maintain policy independence amid external pressures [10]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum has emerged as a new favorite in the precious metals market, with prices rising significantly due to supply shortages and strong demand, particularly in China [1][2]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - As of June 13, 2025, spot platinum prices reached $1,300 per ounce, with a notable increase to $1,285.58 per ounce on June 11, marking a nearly ten-year high [1]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply deficit of 30 tons for the year, marking the third consecutive year of supply shortages in the global platinum market [1][4]. - The price of platinum is currently lower than that of gold, providing a clear cost advantage that has stimulated demand in the jewelry sector [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for platinum bars and coins in China doubled year-on-year in Q1 2025, surpassing North America to become the largest retail investment market for platinum globally [2]. - The recovery of the platinum jewelry market and strong investment demand are key drivers of the rising prices [2][3]. - The automotive sector is also contributing to demand, with a narrowing decline in total platinum demand, which reached 95 tons, higher than the five-year average [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Since mid-May, global platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3%, indicating a significant influx of capital into platinum-related assets [3]. - The Abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) saw its size grow from approximately $1 billion to $1.4 billion over two months, reflecting organized capital allocation towards platinum [3]. - The Asian market, particularly in Japan and China, is experiencing heightened activity in platinum investments, with new retail outlets emerging [3]. Group 4: Supply Constraints - South Africa, the largest platinum producer, is expected to see a 4% decline in production in 2024, with a projected 15% reduction over the next five years [4]. - WPIC anticipates that global mined platinum supply will be 171 tons in 2025, a 4% decrease from the previous year, with slow development in recycling systems failing to fill the gap [4]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - While platinum has significant long-term appreciation potential, it is subject to high short-term volatility, necessitating careful investment strategies [5]. - Investors are advised to consider the interplay of supply-demand fundamentals, capital flows, and macroeconomic conditions when investing in platinum [5].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交易量的修复空间可能更大，届 ...

Core Viewpoint - Texas Instruments (TI) is planning to raise prices on certain product lines, with the final decision expected on June 15, 2023, following a previous price reduction in May 2023 that initiated a price war in the market [2][4][9]. Price Changes and Market Reactions - TI's price increase is seen as a response to the earlier price war, where it had lowered prices to gain market share, leading to significant losses for domestic competitors like SiMicro and Naxinwei [3][4]. - The automotive sector has experienced price increases of over 50%, while other segments have also seen substantial hikes [2]. - Domestic manufacturers are currently maintaining stable prices and are observing TI's pricing strategy before making any adjustments [2][10]. Profitability Focus - The industry is shifting from a strategy of sacrificing profits for market share to prioritizing profitability, as indicated by various companies' statements [10][11]. - SiMicro reported a net loss of 65.64 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a 565.93% year-on-year decline, despite a 27% increase in product sales [4][5]. - Naxinwei also reported a net loss of 265 million yuan, while its product sales increased across various categories [4]. Margin Trends - TI's gross margin has declined from 68.8% in 2022 to 56.8% in Q1 2025 due to earlier price cuts, but it is expected to rise again in Q2 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability [7][8]. - The shift in strategy may indicate a broader industry trend towards maintaining product line profitability rather than competing solely on price [8][9]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to be on a recovery path, with demand improving in industrial and automotive sectors, prompting domestic suppliers to focus on high-end product replacements [11].